Cleveland Guardians vs Boston Red Sox Prediction, 9/22/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Cleveland Guardians vs Boston Red Sox

Date: Tuesday, September 22, 2026

Location: Fenway Park in Boston, MA

TV: NESN

Odds/Point Spread: Cleveland (+120) Boston (-144)

The Boston Red Sox (84-72) welcome the Cleveland Guardians (81-75) at Fenway Park on Tuesday. The moneyline on this contest has the Guardians at +120 and the Red Sox are at -144. The over/under comes in at 8.5. The pitchers taking the mound will be Parker Messick and Payton Tolle.

Cleveland has a slugging percentage of .377 and have been called out on strikes 1,233 times, while drawing a walk on 548 occasions. They have earned 622 runs batted in in addition to 1,238 base knocks this season, and their team batting average is at .238. The Guardians have hit 241 doubles as a unit and have hit 152 balls out of the park. They have a total of 649 runs scored and have an on-base percentage of .315. As a squad, the Cleveland Guardians are earning 4.2 runs per outing, which is 26th in MLB.

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The Guardians hold a team earned run average of 3.78 this season (8th in baseball), and they have struck out 1,476 hitters. Guardians pitchers have surrendered 169 home runs and also 647 runs in total (8th in the league). They have walked 513 opposing players and their FIP comes in at 3.82 as a team over the course of the season. Cleveland has given up 1,232 hits (8.0 per 9 innings) and also 582 earned runs. Their strikeout to walk ratio is 2.88 and the pitching staff holds a collective WHIP of 1.26.

The Guardians bullpen have recorded a save rate of 73.3% and have come into the game in 170 save situations. They have accumulated 44 saves on the year and have blown 16 of their 60 save chances. The bullpen pitchers have inherited 257 base runners for the year and 28.4% of those players ended up crossing the plate. Guardians bullpen pitchers have entered the contest with runners on base 162 times and also have had 166 appearances in high leverage situations. The Guardians have sent 532 relievers to the mound so far this year. The relief pitchers have earned 108 holds so far this year (2nd in MLB).

The Cleveland Guardians have 4,157 putouts at this point in the season, in addition to 1,213 assists and 81 errors. Their fielding rate sits at .985 which is 17th in baseball, and have a total of 101 double plays. The Guardians have turned 69.3% of balls hit into play into outs out of 12,471 innings, ranking them 23rd in the majors.

Messick has taken the mound for 217 innings and has tallied 224 strikeouts so far in his pro baseball career. His ERA is 2.61 (63 ER's allowed) and his WHIP is 1.091. He has allowed 184 hits (7.6 hits per nine innings) with 53 free passes. Messick (15-10 record in his career) is the owner of a FIP of 2.57 while he has gone up against 876 hitters in the major leagues.

The Boston Red Sox have tallied an on-base percentage of .320 as well as a team batting average of .246 so far this year. They have struck out on 1,271 occasions (20th in baseball) and have accounted for 1,286 base knocks. Boston has a total of 161 long balls this year to go along with 648 runs batted in. The Red Sox hold a team SLG% of .401 and they score 4.35 runs per game (20th in MLB). They have hit 277 two-baggers, while getting a free base 497 times and earning 678 runs.

The Boston pitching staff have conceded 598 runs for the season while holding an ERA of 3.59 (553 earned runs surrendered). They have conceded 150 homers and they give up 3.88 runs per 9 innings (4th in the league). The Red Sox are sitting with a team WHIP of 1.235 with a FIP of 3.67 as a squad this year. They currently have a strikeout to walk ratio of 8.80 (1,352 strikeouts against 453 walks). They are sitting at 14th in baseball as a pitching staff in total hits given up with 1,259.

Sitting with 152 save situations, the Red Sox have compiled 92 holds and also 14 blown saves. Boston has had relievers enter the game in 58 save chances and they have walked away with 44 saves. Boston bullpen pitchers hold an inherited score percentage of 29.4% out of their 160 inherited base runners. Their relief pitchers have come in 142 times in high leverage situations and on 121 occasions with runners on base. They are currently ranked 3rd in MLB holding a save percentage of 75.9%, and they have dispatched 472 relievers to the mound on the campaign.

In 12,474 innings on the field, the Red Sox have earned a efficiency on defense of 69.4% (21st in pro baseball). The Boston Red Sox have gotten 118 double plays and have accounted for a fielding rate of .986 (15th in baseball). The Red Sox have 1,361 assists, 79 errors and have a total of 4,158 putouts so far this season.

Tolle (9-7 career record) is the owner of a 3.34 earned run average while surrendering 7.5 hits per nine innings. His strikeout to walk ratio is 4.02 and he has gone up against 649 opposing hitters so far in his pro baseball career. He has allowed 59 ER's while holding a WHIP of 1.125 and having a FIP of 3.3. Thus far in his career, Tolle has given up 133 base knocks while he has accumulated 185 strikeouts in 159 frames.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Cleveland (+120)

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