Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction, 7/27/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds

Date: Monday, July 27, 2026

Location: Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, OH

TV: Reds.TV

Odds/Point Spread: Cleveland (-152) Cincinnati (+126)

The Cincinnati Reds (48-54) welcome the Cleveland Guardians (54-51) at Great American Ball Park on Monday. The odds on this game have the Guardians at -152 while the Reds are opening at +126. The total is 9. The pitchers who are expected to start will be Slade Cecconi and Chase Burns.

The Guardians have accounted for 161 two-baggers as a unit and have knocked 104 balls out of the stadium. Cleveland is slugging .375 and have struck out 876 times, while drawing a walk on 378 occasions. As a team, the Cleveland Guardians are earning 4.0 runs per contest, which has them at 29th in MLB. They have compiled 402 RBI's in addition to 807 hits over the course of the season, and their average at the plate is sitting at .232. They have accumulated 420 runs scored and have an on-base percentage of .312.

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The Guardians are sitting with a team earned run average of 3.77 so far this year (8th in baseball), and the staff has struck out 960 batters. Guardians pitchers have surrendered 119 home runs and 434 total runs (9th in the league). They have walked 347 opposing batters and their FIP comes in at 3.92 as a team this year. Cleveland has allowed 838 base hits (8.1 per 9 innings) and 391 earned runs. Their K/BB ratio is 2.77 and the pitching staff has a collective WHIP of 1.27.

The Guardians have dispatched 357 relievers to the mound this year. The relief pitchers have inherited 161 runners so far this season and 25.5% of those players earned a run for their team. The relief pitchers have a total of 86 holds on the year (1st in the league). Guardians pitchers have come into the game with runners on 105 times as well as having 130 appearances in high leverage situations. They have tallied 33 saves so far this season and have blown 10 of 43 save opportunities. The Guardians relievers have accumulated a save rate of 76.7% and have entered the game in 130 save situations.

The Cleveland Guardians have a tally of 2,798 putouts this year, as well as 831 assists and 57 errors. Their fielding percentage is holding at .985 which ranks 19th in baseball, and they have turned 72 double plays. The Guardians have converted 69.5% of balls in play into outs in their 8,394 innings on the diamond, ranking them 19th in baseball.

Cecconi (13-22 career mark) holds a FIP of 4.86 and he has gone up against 1,449 batters during his time in the major leagues. He has given up 360 base knocks (9.6 hits per 9 innings) and has 87 walks. His ERA is 4.94 (186 ER's allowed) and his WHIP is 1.318. Cecconi has taken the mound for 339 innings and has earned 275 K's in his pro baseball career.

Cincinnati is sitting with 135 long balls on the season as well as 408 runs batted in. They have put up 154 doubles, while walking 368 times as well as scoring 427 runs. The Cincinnati Reds have tallied an on-base percentage of .309 as well as a batting average of .230 over the course of the season. The Reds hold a team slugging percentage of .400 and they are scoring 4.19 runs per game (23rd in baseball). They have been called out on strikes on 948 occasions (4th in the league) and have accounted for 788 hits.

The Reds are sitting with a team WHIP of 1.422 with a FIP of 4.85 as a staff this season. Their K/BB ratio is 8.20 (824 strikeouts vs 440 walks). They rank 18th in the league as a pitching staff in total hits allowed with 850. They have yielded 136 home runs and they relinquish 4.84 runs per 9 innings (23rd in the league). The Cincinnati pitching staff have yielded 488 runs over the course of the season while having a team ERA of 4.53 (457 earned runs yielded).

Cincinnati relief pitchers hold an inherited score rate of 27.0% of 159 inherited base runners. Their relief pitchers have come in 121 times in high leverage situations in addition to 114 occasions with base runners. With 100 save situations, the Reds have 58 holds in addition to 17 blown saves. They rank 20th in baseball with a save rate of 58.5%, and they have dispatched 363 relievers to the hill on the year.

The Cincinnati Reds have turned 72 double plays and have notched a fielding percentage of .985 (18th in the majors). The Reds have recorded 831 assists, 53 errors and have a tally of 2,721 putouts so far this season. In 8,163 innings played, the Reds hold a defensive efficiency of 70.6% (11th in the majors).

In his MLB career, Burns has surrendered 121 base hits and he has 191 strikeouts in 150 innings pitched. He has conceded a total of 51 earned runs while earning a WHIP of 1.171 and a FIP of 3.0. His K/BB ratio is 3.47 and he has gone up against 621 hitters thus far in his career. Burns (12-4 career win-loss record) has earned a 3.05 ERA and has surrendered 7.2 hits per nine innings.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Cincinnati (+126)

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