Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction, 10/12/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays

Date: Monday, October 12, 2026

Location: Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, FL

TV: TBS

Odds/Point Spread: Cleveland (+149) Tampa Bay (-180)

The Tampa Bay Rays (98-64) will take on the Cleveland Guardians (85-77) at Tropicana Field on Monday in Game 1 of the ALCS. The moneyline on this contest has Cleveland at +149 and Tampa Bay is coming in at -180. The over/under has been set at 7. The expected starting pitchers will be Foster Griffin and Drew Rasmussen.

Cleveland is slugging .380 and have struck out 1,271 times, while taking a walk on 574 occasions. They have compiled 650 RBI's and 1,291 base knocks this season, while their team batting average is .239. The Guardians have hit 249 doubles as a team and have smacked 162 balls out of the stadium. They have accumulated 678 runs while having a team OBP of .316. As a team, the Cleveland Guardians are putting up 4.2 runs per contest, which puts them at 24th in MLB.

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The Guardians are sitting with a team earned run average of 3.77 for the year (8th in the league), and they have struck out 1,530 batters. Guardians pitchers have relinquished 175 home runs and 667 runs in total (8th in the league). They have walked 530 batters and their FIP comes in at 3.82 as a unit for the season. Cleveland has yielded 1,286 base knocks (8.1 per 9 innings) in addition to 602 earned runs. Their strikeout to walk ratio is 2.89 and the pitching staff has earned a collective WHIP of 1.26.

The Guardians relievers have a save percentage of 71.9% and stepped onto the hill in 183 save situations. They have earned 46 saves on the season and have blown 18 of their 64 chances to save the game. The relief pitchers have inherited 261 base runners so far this season with 28.4% of those players crossing home plate. Guardians bullpen pitchers have entered the game with runners on 166 times as well as having 178 appearances in high leverage situations. The Guardians have dispatched 555 relievers to the mound over the course of the season. The relief pitchers have a total of 117 holds for the season (1st in the league).

The Cleveland Guardians have a total of 4,313 putouts for the season, as well as 1,262 assists and 86 errors. Their fielding percentage is at .985 which has them sitting 17th in baseball, and they have turned 108 double plays. The Guardians have transformed 69.1% of balls hit into play into outs out of 12,939 innings, which has them sitting 23rd in baseball.

Griffin has taken the hill for 137 frames and has racked up 121 strikeouts in his MLB career. His ERA is 3.28 (50 earned runs allowed) and his WHIP is 1.101. He has given up 116 hits (7.6 hits per 9 innings) and has had 35 free passes. Griffin (13-3 career mark) sits with a FIP of 3.23 while facing 562 opposing batters in the majors.

The Tampa Bay Rays are sitting with an OBP of .326 and a batting average of .258 so far this year. They have been called out on strikes on 1,145 instances (30th in MLB) and have 1,405 hits. Tampa Bay has recorded 169 home runs for the season as well as 700 RBIs. The Rays hold a slugging percentage of .402 and they have an average of 4.54 runs per outing (12th in MLB). They have hit 230 doubles, while taking a walk 514 times as well as scoring 736 runs.

The Rays are sitting with a team WHIP of 1.139 in addition to having a FIP of 4.04 as a staff over the course of the season. They come in at 4th in MLB as a pitching staff in total hits relinquished with 1,235. The Tampa Bay pitching staff have conceded 650 runs for the season and come in with a team ERA of 3.70 (594 earned runs given up). Their K/BB ratio comes in at 8.20 (1,322 strikeouts against 409 walks). They have given up 201 homers and they concede 4.05 runs per 9 innings (6th in MLB).

Tampa Bay relief pitchers have an inherited score rate of 32.3% of 192 inherited runners. Their relief pitchers have come in 163 times in high leverage situations and on 134 occasions with base runners. Sitting with 194 save situations, the Rays have recorded 115 holds in addition to 20 blown saves. They sit at 4th in baseball with a save rate of 74.4%, and they have sent 522 relievers to the mound for the year.

In their 12,987 innings on the diamond, the Rays have a defensive efficiency of 72.3% (1st in pro baseball). The Tampa Bay Rays have turned 100 double plays and hold a fielding percentage of .984 (21st in the majors). The Rays have racked up 1,279 assists, 92 errors and have a tally of 4,329 putouts this season.

Thus far in his career, Rasmussen has conceded 497 hits while he has totaled 602 strikeouts in 632 innings. Rasmussen (46-22 win-loss mark in his career) has earned a 2.83 ERA and has given up 7.1 hits per 9 innings. He has surrendered 199 ER's while holding a WHIP of 1.025 and being the owner of a FIP of 2.8. He has a strikeout to walk ratio of 3.99 and he has faced 2,509 opposing batters thus far in his career.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Tampa Bay (-180)

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