Houston Astros vs Boston Red Sox Prediction, 5/1/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Houston Astros vs Boston Red Sox

Date: Friday, May 1, 2026

Location: Fenway Park in Boston, MA

TV: NESN

Odds/Point Spread: Houston (+125) Boston (-145)

The Houston Astros (11-19) are on their way to Fenway Park on Friday where they will compete against the Boston Red Sox (12-19). The moneyline on this contest has Houston at +125 while Boston is at -145. The over/under has been set at 8.5. The expected starting pitchers are Mike Burrows and Connelly Early.

As a team, the Houston Astros are compiling 5.1 runs per game, which is 5th in the league. They have racked up 154 runs scored while having a team OBP of .344. The Astros have recorded 66 doubles as a unit and have knocked 38 balls out of the park. They have recorded 146 RBI's and 265 hits this season, and their team batting average sits at .260. Houston is slugging .440 and have struck out 233 times, while taking a walk on 122 occasions.

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They have accumulated a K/BB ratio of 1.71 and the pitching staff holds a collective WHIP of 1.64. Astros pitchers have relinquished 44 home runs and 179 runs in total (29th in the league). Houston has conceded 269 base knocks (9.3 per 9 innings) in addition to 173 earned runs. The Astros have a team ERA of 5.96 so far this year (30th in MLB), and their staff has struck out 274 hitters. They have walked 160 opposing players and their FIP sits at 5.29 as a squad for the year.

The Astros have sent 97 relief pitchers to the hill so far this season. The relievers have inherited 65 runners on the campaign with 29.2% of those players earned a run for their team. The relievers have recorded 12 holds over the course of the season (27th in MLB). Astros bullpen pitchers have come into the game with players on base 38 times as well as having 23 appearances in high leverage situations. They have tallied 6 saves on the campaign and have blown 1 of 7 save chances. The Astros relief pitchers have compiled a save rate of 85.7% and have come into the game in 19 save situations.

The Houston Astros have accounted for 784 putouts thus far, in addition to 225 assists and 10 errors. Their fielding rate is currently at .990 which has them sitting 5th in pro baseball, and have accumulated 30 double plays. The Astros have converted 66.9% of baseballs in play into outs out of their 2,352 innings, which has them sitting at 29th in baseball.

Burrows (4-7 career win-loss mark) holds a FIP of 4.42 while going up against 559 hitters during his time in the major leagues. He has given up 131 base hits (9.0 hits per nine innings) and has 46 free passes. His ERA is 4.49 (65 ER's allowed) and his WHIP is 1.358. Burrows has thrown 130 innings and has earned 132 strikeouts during his MLB career.

The Boston Red Sox have recorded a team OBP of .309 and a batting average of .231 this year. They have been rung up on 258 occasions (13th in baseball) and have totaled 240 hits. Boston is sitting with 21 home runs for the season to go along with 118 RBIs. The Red Sox have a team SLG% of .351 and they score 3.97 runs per contest (25th in baseball). They have hit 53 doubles, while taking a walk 102 times and putting up 123 runs.

The Boston pitching staff have surrendered 139 runs this season while holding a team ERA of 4.35 (131 earned runs yielded). They have conceded 41 long balls and they relinquish 4.61 runs per 9 innings (18th in the league). The Red Sox hold a team WHIP of 1.313 with a FIP of 4.56 as a squad on the season. Their K/BB ratio sits at 8.20 (246 strikeouts vs 103 walks). They are sitting at 20th in MLB as a pitching staff in total hits given up with 253.

Boston relievers hold an inherited score percentage of 34.1% out of their 44 inherited runners. Their bullpen pitchers have come in 26 times in high leverage situations and also on 29 occasions with runners on base. With 23 save situations, the Red Sox have 14 holds and 4 blown saves. They rank 21st in baseball holding a save percentage of 55.6%, and they have dispatched 94 relief pitchers onto the diamond on the year.

The Boston Red Sox have gotten 21 double plays and have earned a fielding percentage of .986 (17th in pro baseball). The Red Sox have racked up 283 assists, 16 errors and have notched a total of 814 putouts so far this year. In their 2,442 innings on the diamond, the Red Sox are sitting with a defensive efficiency of 70.6% (11th in baseball).

In his pro baseball career, Early has given up 41 base knocks while accumulating 57 punch outs in 50 innings pitched. Early (3-3 career record) has a 2.68 ERA while giving up 7.3 hits per 9 innings. He has conceded a total of 15 ER's while earning a WHIP of 1.173 and being the owner of a FIP of 2.6. He has a K/BB ratio of 3.17 and he has faced 210 batters during his MLB career.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Boston (-145)

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