Houston Astros vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction, 5/9/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Houston Astros vs Cincinnati Reds

Date: Saturday, May 9, 2026

Location: Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, OH

TV: Reds.TV

Odds/Point Spread: Houston (-160) Cincinnati (+132)

The Cincinnati Reds (20-18) are hosting the Houston Astros (15-23) at Great American Ball Park on Saturday. The moneyline on this matchup has Houston at -160 while Cincinnati is opening at +132. The over/under comes in at 8.5. The expected starting pitchers will be Spencer Arrighetti and Chase Burns.

The Astros have accrued 73 two-baggers as a unit and have hit 47 balls out of the park. Houston has a slugging % of .429 and have been called out on strikes 301 times, while drawing a walk on 139 occasions. As a unit, the Houston Astros are knocking in 4.9 runs per game, which has them sitting at 7th in the league. They have recorded 175 RBI's and 339 base knocks over the course of the season, and their team batting average comes in at .261. They have accumulated 185 runs and hold an OBP of .338.

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Their K/BB ratio is 1.70 and the pitching staff has a team WHIP of 1.63. Astros pitchers have yielded 53 long balls and 222 total runs (30th in MLB). Houston has allowed 341 base knocks (9.2 per 9 innings) and 215 earned runs. The Astros have an earned run average of 5.82 over the course of the season (30th in MLB), and their staff has rung up 341 batters. They have walked 201 hitters and their FIP comes in at 5.19 as a unit over the course of the season.

The Astros have dispatched 121 relief pitchers to the mound so far this season. The relief pitchers have inherited 74 base runners for the season and 28.4% of them ended up crossing the plate. The relief pitchers have earned 13 holds on the campaign (27th in MLB). Astros relief pitchers have entered the game with runners on base 43 times in addition to having 29 appearances in high leverage situations. They have 8 saves this season and have missed out on 1 out of their 9 save opportunities. The Astros relief pitchers have recorded a save percentage of 88.9% and have entered the game in 22 save situations.

The Houston Astros have 997 putouts so far this season, as well as 289 assists and 13 errors. Their fielding percentage is holding at .990 which ranks 4th in professional baseball, and they have turned 38 double plays. The Astros have converted 67.1% of balls hit into play into outs out of their 2,991 innings, which has them sitting at 28th in pro baseball.

Arrighetti has thrown 203 innings and has racked up 227 K's in his pro baseball career. Arrighetti (12-18 mark in his career) has a FIP of 4.32 while he has faced 889 opposing hitters during his time in the major leagues. His ERA is 4.39 (99 ER's allowed) and he has a WHIP of 1.398. He has given up 185 base hits (8.2 hits per nine innings) and has had 99 free passes.

The Cincinnati Reds have an OBP of .306 and a team batting average of .220 for the year. They have been rung up on 356 occasions (3rd in MLB) and have totaled 279 base hits. Cincinnati has recorded 52 home runs this year to go along with 145 RBIs. The Reds have a team SLG% of .387 and they score 4.11 runs per game (23rd in the league). They have notched 52 doubles, while walking 151 times as well as earning 156 runs.

The Reds hold a team WHIP of 1.510 in addition to having a FIP of 4.80 as a pitching staff so far this season. They have earned a strikeout to walk ratio of 7.80 (293 strikeouts against 184 free passes). They have a ranking of 24th in the league as a staff in total hits relinquished with 328. They have allowed 42 homers and they relinquish 4.94 runs per 9 innings (23rd in the league). The Cincinnati pitching staff have given up 186 runs for the year while having an ERA of 4.59 (173 earned runs relinquished).

With 45 save situations, the Reds have earned 26 holds and 8 blown saves. Cincinnati has called on relievers to enter the game in 18 save opportunities and they have tallied 10 saves. Cincinnati relief pitchers hold an inherited score rate of 24.6% out of their 61 inherited base runners. Their relievers have taken the field 52 times in high leverage situations and on 44 occasions with runners on. They rank 22nd in MLB with a save percentage of 55.6%, and they have dispatched 143 bullpen pitchers onto the field on the season.

The Cincinnati Reds have gotten 38 double plays and hold a fielding percentage of .989 (6th in professional baseball). The Reds have recorded 329 assists, 15 errors and are sitting with 1,018 putouts for the year. In their 3,054 innings on the diamond, the Reds are sitting with a defensive efficiency of 69.6% (17th in baseball).

In his career, Burns has allowed 70 base hits while tallying 113 strikeouts in 84 innings. Burns (3-4 career win-loss record) holds a 3.42 earned run average while allowing 7.5 hits per nine innings. He has allowed a total of 32 ER's while earning a WHIP of 1.177 and being the owner of a FIP of 3.4. His strikeout to walk ratio is 3.90 and he has faced 349 opposing hitters in his career.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Houston (-160)

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