Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction, 9/11/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays

Date: Friday, September 11, 2026

Location: Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, FL

TV: MLB.TV

Odds/Point Spread: Houston (+110) Tampa Bay (-130)

The Tampa Bay Rays (87-58) will take on the Houston Astros (74-72) at Tropicana Field on Friday. The moneyline on this contest has the Astros at +110 while the Rays are priced at -130. The total has been set at 8.5. The pitchers who are expected to start are Ethan Pecko and Drew Rasmussen.

Houston has a slugging percentage of .410 and have struck out 1,196 times, while being walked on 478 occasions. They have earned 629 runs batted in as well as 1,183 base knocks for the year, while their batting average sits at .241. The Astros have earned 217 two-baggers as a team and have smacked 192 balls out of the park. They have tallied 660 runs and have an OBP of .315. As a team, the Houston Astros are compiling 4.5 runs per game, which is 13th in baseball.

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The Astros have an earned run average of 4.55 for the year (24th in the league), and the staff has struck out 1,282 hitters. Astros pitchers have surrendered 186 long balls in addition to 701 runs (24th in the league). Their pitching staff has walked 595 players from the other team and their FIP is 4.56 as a unit on the campaign. Houston has relinquished 1,161 base knocks (8.1 per 9 innings) and also 655 earned runs. They have a K/BB ratio of 2.15 and the pitching staff has earned a collective WHIP of 1.35.

The Astros bullpen have a save percentage of 80.7% and have stepped onto the mound in 138 save situations. They have accumulated 46 saves for the year and have missed out on 11 of their 57 save opportunities. The bullpen pitchers have inherited 202 base runners on the campaign and 26.7% of those runners crossing the plate. Astros pitchers have entered the contest with opponents on base 135 times in addition to having 151 appearances in high leverage situations. The Astros have sent 474 relief pitchers to the hill for the season. The bullpen have a total of 79 holds on the year (17th in baseball).

The Astros have turned 70.6% of balls in play into outs out of 11,667 innings on the field, which has them sitting 11th in MLB. The Houston Astros have earned 3,889 putouts so far this season, as well as 1,070 assists and 66 errors. Their fielding percentage is at .987 which puts them in 11th in baseball, and have 115 double plays.

Pecko has pitched in 17 innings and has accounted for 11 K's during his pro baseball career. His ERA is 5.26 (10 ER's allowed) and his career WHIP is 1.520. He has given up 16 base hits (8.4 hits per 9 innings) with 10 walks. Pecko (1-0 career mark) has earned a FIP of 5.18 and he has faced 77 batters during his time in the majors.

The Rays hold a team slugging % of .405 and they are recording 4.56 runs per outing (10th in MLB). They have 200 doubles, while getting a free base 463 times and putting up 661 runs. Tampa Bay has compiled 154 home runs on the season as well as 629 runs batted in. They have struck out on 1,011 occasions (30th in baseball) and have earned a total of 1,274 base knocks. The Tampa Bay Rays have earned an OBP of .329 as well as a team batting average of .261 on the season.

The Rays hold a team WHIP of 1.147 with a FIP of 4.08 as a pitching staff so far this season. They sit at 4th in the league as a staff in total hits relinquished with 1,120. The Tampa Bay pitching staff have given up 603 runs so far this year while having a team ERA of 3.81 (548 earned runs surrendered). Their strikeout to walk ratio is 8.20 (1,174 strikeouts vs 366 walks). They have conceded 182 homers and they surrender 4.19 runs per 9 innings (8th in the league).

Sitting with 181 save situations, the Rays have accumulated 107 holds in addition to 18 blown saves. Tampa Bay has had relief pitchers take the mound in 73 save chances and they have earned 55 saves. Tampa Bay relievers have an inherited score percentage of 33.9% out of their 177 inherited base runners. Their relief pitchers have stepped onto the hill 144 times in high leverage situations and also on 123 occasions with base runners. They are currently ranked 4th in baseball holding a save percentage of 75.3%, and they have sent 462 bullpen pitchers to the mound over the course of the season.

The Tampa Bay Rays have gotten 91 double plays and own a fielding percentage of .983 (24th in baseball). The Rays have recorded 1,150 assists, 87 errors and have accumulated 3,885 putouts for the season. In 11,655 innings played, the Rays are sitting with a defensive efficiency of 72.1% (1st in professional baseball).

During his pro baseball career, Rasmussen has surrendered 484 hits while earning 584 punch outs in 613 frames. He has surrendered 197 ER's while holding a WHIP of 1.027 and a FIP of 2.8. His strikeout to walk ratio is 4.00 and he has gone up against 2,438 opposing batters so far in his career. Rasmussen (44-22 career win-loss record) is the owner of a 2.89 earned run average while giving up 7.1 hits per nine innings.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Houston (+110)

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