Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction, 9/12/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays

Date: Saturday, September 12, 2026

Location: Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, FL

TV: MLB.TV

Odds/Point Spread: Houston (+110) Tampa Bay (-130)

The Houston Astros (75-72) are en route to Tropicana Field on Saturday where they will try to defeat the Tampa Bay Rays (87-59). The line on this matchup has Houston at +110 while Tampa Bay opens at -130. The over/under has been set at 9. The pitchers who are expected to start are Peter Lambert and Ian Seymour.

As a team, the Houston Astros are recording 4.5 runs per outing, which has them at 14th in baseball. They have tallied 662 runs while holding a team on-base percentage of .315. The Astros have accounted for 219 two-baggers as a team and have smacked 193 balls out of the stadium. They have tallied 631 runs batted in and 1,191 base knocks so far this year, while their team batting average comes in at .241. Houston has a slugging % of .410 and have been rung up 1,206 times, while drawing a walk on 481 occasions.

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The Astros have compiled a team ERA of 4.52 on the campaign (24th in the league), and the staff has rung up 1,291 batters. Astros pitchers have given up 186 long balls in addition to 702 runs (24th in baseball). Their pitching staff has walked 596 opposing batters and their FIP comes in at 4.54 as a squad so far this season. Houston has conceded 1,164 hits (8.0 per 9 innings) and 656 earned runs. They have a K/BB ratio of 2.17 and their pitching staff holds a WHIP of 1.35.

The Astros relief pitchers have earned a save rate of 81.0% and have come into the game in 139 save situations. They have recorded 47 saves this season and have missed out on 11 of 58 chances to save the game. The relievers have inherited 202 runners on the year and 26.7% of those players earned a run for their team. Astros pitchers have entered the contest with runners on base 135 times as well as having 154 appearances in high leverage situations. The Astros have sent 477 relief pitchers to the mound on the campaign. The bullpen have recorded 79 holds over the course of the season (17th in MLB).

The Houston Astros have earned 3,916 putouts at this point in the season, in addition to 1,080 assists and 66 errors. Their fielding percentage is currently at .987 which has them ranked 11th in pro baseball, and they have turned 117 double plays. The Astros have transformed 70.6% of balls in play into outs out of their 11,748 innings, which ranks them 11th in baseball.

Lambert has thrown 382 innings and has racked up 318 strikeouts during his pro baseball career. His ERA is 5.34 (227 earned runs allowed) and he has a WHIP of 1.475. He has conceded 413 hits (9.7 hits per 9 innings) and has had 151 walks. Lambert (16-27 career mark) holds a FIP of 5.26 and he has faced 1,700 batters in the majors.

The Tampa Bay Rays have tallied an on-base percentage of .329 as well as a team batting average of .260 on the year. They have been rung up on 1,017 occasions (30th in MLB) and have tallied 1,280 hits. Tampa Bay has tallied 155 home runs this season as well as 630 RBIs. The Rays have a SLG% of .404 and they are recording 4.53 runs per contest (12th in MLB). They have hit 201 two-baggers, while taking a walk 466 times and recording 662 runs.

The Rays hold a team WHIP of 1.146 and are the owners of a FIP of 4.07 as a team this season. They come in at 5th in the league as a staff in total hits given up with 1,127. The Tampa Bay pitching staff have allowed 606 runs this season while having a team ERA of 3.81 (551 earned runs allowed). Their K/BB ratio comes in at 8.10 (1,177 strikeouts vs 366 bases on balls). They have allowed 182 homers and they surrender 4.19 runs per 9 innings (7th in baseball).

Tampa Bay bullpen pitchers hold an inherited score rate of 33.7% out of 178 inherited base runners. Their relief pitchers have stepped onto the mound 145 times in high leverage situations and also on 124 occasions with runners on base. With 181 save situations, the Rays have tallied 107 holds and 18 blown saves. They rank 4th in the league holding a save percentage of 75.3%, and they have dispatched 465 relief pitchers onto the diamond on the campaign.

In 11,727 innings played, the Rays are sitting with a defensive efficiency of 72.1% (1st in MLB). The Tampa Bay Rays have gotten 92 double plays and hold a fielding percentage of .983 (24th in pro baseball). The Rays have accrued 1,159 assists, 87 errors and are sitting with 3,909 putouts so far this season.

In his pro baseball career, Seymour has allowed 150 base knocks while he has accumulated 204 strikeouts in 173 frames. He has allowed 79 earned runs while holding a WHIP of 1.167 and having a FIP of 4.0. He has a strikeout to walk ratio of 3.92 and he has faced 728 hitters thus far in his career. Seymour (13-9 record in his career) has earned a 4.11 ERA while allowing 7.8 hits per 9 innings.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Tampa Bay (-130)

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