Kansas City Royals vs New York Mets Prediction, 7/7/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Kansas City Royals vs New York Mets

Date: Tuesday, July 7, 2026

Location: Citi Field in Queens, NY

TV: Sportsnet New York

Odds/Point Spread: Kansas City (+132) New York (-160)

The New York Mets (37-53) will compete against the Kansas City Royals (36-54) at Citi Field on Tuesday. The line on this matchup has the Royals at +132 while the Mets are priced at -160. The over/under is set at 8. The starting pitchers will be Seth Lugo and Kodai Senga.

The Royals have tallied 157 doubles as a squad and have hit 87 baseballs out of the stadium. Kansas City is slugging .387 and have been rung up 724 times, while being walked on 287 occasions. As a team, the Kansas City Royals are scoring 4.1 runs/g, which has them at 22nd in baseball. They have amassed 351 RBI's and 727 base knocks for the year, while their average at the plate is .242. They have earned 369 runs and hold an OBP of .311.

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The Royals have compiled a team ERA of 4.84 over the course of the season (28th in baseball), and the staff has rung up 686 hitters. Royals pitchers have allowed 116 home runs and also 454 total runs (24th in baseball). Their pitching staff has walked 341 batters and their FIP comes in at 4.68 as a team over the course of the season. Kansas City has allowed 797 base hits (9.0 per 9 innings) and 427 earned runs. They have earned a K/BB ratio of 2.01 and the pitching staff sits with a WHIP of 1.43.

Royals pitchers have entered the game with runners on base 61 times as well as having 90 appearances in high leverage situations. The bullpen have a total of 38 holds this year (25th in MLB). The Royals relievers have a save percentage of 59.0% and have entered the game in 77 save situations. They have earned 23 saves on the year and have not converted 16 of 39 chances to get a save. The bullpen pitchers have inherited 87 base runners on the season with 34.5% of them ended up scoring. The Royals have sent 291 relievers to the mound on the year.

The Royals have transformed 69.0% of balls in play into outs in their 7,152 innings, which has them sitting 24th in pro baseball. The Kansas City Royals have a total of 2,384 putouts on the campaign, as well as 802 assists and 40 errors. Their fielding percentage is holding steady at .988 which has them ranked 9th in MLB, and they have turned 79 double plays.

Lugo (67-53 career record) is the owner of a FIP of 3.50 while facing 4,505 hitters in the major leagues. He has given up 992 hits (8.2 hits per 9 innings) and has 306 walks. His ERA is 3.55 (430 earned runs allowed) and he has a WHIP of 1.192. Lugo has pitched in 1,089 frames and has 1,030 punch outs so far in his pro baseball career.

The New York Mets have accounted for an on-base percentage of .300 in addition to a batting average of .231 so far this year. They have been called out on strikes on 746 instances (19th in MLB) and are sitting with 699 base hits. New York has knocked in 103 long balls on the year to go along with 348 RBIs. The Mets have a SLG% of .377 and they are earning 4.02 runs per outing (27th in MLB). They have put up 108 doubles, while getting a free base 271 times and putting up 362 runs.

The Mets hold a team WHIP of 1.292 and have a FIP of 3.99 as a pitching staff so far this year. Their strikeout to walk ratio sits at 9.20 (820 strikeouts against 317 walks). They rank 11th in baseball as a staff in total hits allowed with 717. They have conceded 97 homers and they surrender 4.76 runs per 9 innings (19th in the league). The New York pitching staff have surrendered 423 runs this season while holding an ERA of 4.30 (382 earned runs yielded).

New York bullpen pitchers have an inherited score percentage of 31.0% out of their 116 inherited base runners. Their relief pitchers have stepped onto the mound 97 times in high leverage situations and also on 88 occasions with runners on base. With 58 save situations, the Mets have recorded 34 holds in addition to 9 blown saves. They sit at 17th in baseball holding a save rate of 62.5%, and they have sent 274 relievers onto the diamond this season.

In 7,206 innings on the diamond, the Mets have accumulated a efficiency on defense of 69.5% (21st in pro baseball). The New York Mets have gotten 52 double plays and have earned a fielding percentage of .982 (28th in professional baseball). The Mets have racked up 731 assists, 59 errors and have earned a total of 2,402 putouts so far this year.

Senga (20-20 win-loss mark in his career) has earned a 3.63 earned run average while conceding 7.3 hits per 9 innings. He has a strikeout to walk ratio of 2.32 and he has gone up against 1,360 batters during his pro baseball career. He has conceded a total of 129 earned runs while earning a WHIP of 1.296 and being the owner of a FIP of 3.6. In his MLB career, Senga has allowed 259 hits while he has accumulated 362 punch outs in 320 innings.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Kansas City (+132)

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