Miami Marlins vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction, 9/16/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Miami Marlins vs Arizona Diamondbacks

Date: Wednesday, September 16, 2026

Location: Chase Field in Phoenix, AZ

TV: DBACKS.TV

Odds/Point Spread: Miami (+125) Arizona (-145)

Chase Field is the location where the Arizona Diamondbacks (80-71) will attempt to beat the Miami Marlins (74-77) on Wednesday. The moneyline on this matchup has Miami at +125 while Arizona is at -145. The betting total is set at 8. The starting pitchers are Ryan Gusto and Merrill Kelly.

As a team, the Miami Marlins are recording 4.5 runs/g, which has them at 18th in baseball. They have notched a total of 673 runs scored while holding a team on-base percentage of .327. The Marlins have accounted for 232 two-baggers as a unit and have knocked 155 balls out of the park. They have 644 RBI's as well as 1,257 hits over the course of the season, while their team batting average is sitting at .250. Miami is slugging .402 and have struck out 1,248 times, while taking a walk on 517 occasions.

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The Marlins hold a team earned run average of 4.13 this season (14th in the league), and their staff has struck out 1,215 hitters. Marlins pitchers have surrendered 156 long balls and 668 runs in total (14th in MLB). Their pitching staff has walked 525 batters and their FIP comes in at 4.16 as a team on the campaign. Miami has conceded 1,177 hits (8.0 per 9 innings) and 609 earned runs. Their K/BB ratio is 2.31 and the pitching staff has a collective WHIP of 1.28.

Marlins relief pitchers have entered the game with runners on 134 times as well as having 143 appearances in high leverage situations. The relief pitchers are sitting with 87 holds so far this season (10th in the league). The Marlins relievers have accumulated a save percentage of 61.5% and stepped onto the hill in 142 save situations. They have tallied 32 saves for the season and have missed out on 20 out of their 52 save opportunities. The relievers have inherited 192 runners this season and 28.1% of those runners earned a run for their team. The Marlins have sent 500 relief pitchers to the hill over the course of the season.

The Marlins have turned 70.7% of baseballs in play into outs out of their 11,943 innings, which has them ranked 10th in the majors. The Miami Marlins have a tally of 3,981 putouts for the season, as well as 1,266 assists and 94 errors. Their fielding percentage is at .982 which is 27th in the majors, and have a total of 107 double plays.

Gusto has taken the ball for 179 innings and has totaled 162 strikeouts thus far in his career. Gusto (8-12 career mark) is the owner of a FIP of 4.94 and he has gone up against 800 hitters in the majors. His earned run average is 5.02 (100 earned runs allowed) and he has a WHIP of 1.450. He has conceded 199 base hits (10.0 hits per 9 innings) with 61 free passes.

The Arizona Diamondbacks have recorded an OBP of .316 in addition to a batting average of .244 so far this year. They have struck out on 1,105 occasions (28th in the league) and have notched a total of 1,232 base hits. Arizona has hit 150 home runs on the season and 642 RBIs. The Diamondbacks hold a team SLG% of .397 and they score 4.46 runs per game (15th in MLB). They have recorded 253 doubles, while walking 503 times as well as scoring 673 runs.

The Diamondbacks hold a team WHIP of 1.280 and have a FIP of 4.31 as a staff this season. They rank 21st in the league as a pitching staff in total hits surrendered with 1,270. The Arizona pitching staff have conceded 670 runs this year while having an ERA of 4.11 (613 earned runs yielded). They currently have a strikeout to walk ratio of 7.00 (1,052 strikeouts vs 449 walks). They have yielded 169 homers and they relinquish 4.49 runs per 9 innings (14th in baseball).

Sitting with 134 save situations, the Diamondbacks have accumulated 79 holds and also 17 blown saves. Arizona has called on bullpen pitchers to step onto the hill in 54 save chances and they have earned 37 saves. Arizona relievers hold an inherited score percentage of 26.9% out of their 197 inherited base runners. Their relief pitchers have come in 161 times in high leverage situations and also on 135 occasions with runners on. They rank 11th in the league holding a save rate of 68.5%, and they have dispatched 508 relief pitchers onto the diamond on the year.

The Arizona Diamondbacks have gotten 129 double plays and have notched a fielding percentage of .989 (2nd in the majors). The Diamondbacks have accrued 1,306 assists, 58 errors and have a total of 4,029 putouts this year. Out of their 12,087 innings played, the Diamondbacks have accumulated a defensive efficiency of 71.2% (7th in MLB).

During his career, Kelly has allowed 1,062 hits while he has totaled 1,013 K's in 1,160 frames. Kelly (74-66 record in his career) is the owner of a 3.93 ERA and has allowed 8.2 hits per nine innings. He has surrendered 506 ER's while earning a WHIP of 1.232 and a FIP of 3.9. His K/BB ratio is 2.76 and he has faced 4,803 opposing hitters so far in his career.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Miami (+125)

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