Miami Marlins vs Chicago Cubs Prediction, 9/23/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Miami Marlins vs Chicago Cubs

Date: Wednesday, September 23, 2026

Location: Wrigley Field in Chicago, IL

TV: Marquee

Odds/Point Spread: Miami (+106) Chicago (-128)

The Chicago Cubs (87-69) will go up against the Miami Marlins (76-80) at Wrigley Field on Wednesday. The odds on this game have Miami at +106 and Chicago is at -128. The over/under comes in at 8. The expected starting pitchers will be Ryan Gusto and Kevin Gausman.

Miami is slugging .400 and have been rung up 1,296 times, while drawing a walk on 537 occasions. They have accrued 662 RBI's and 1,295 hits this season, and their batting average sits at .249. The Marlins have accounted for 237 two-baggers as a squad and have hit 161 balls out of the park. They have earned a total of 692 runs and have an OBP of .327. As a squad, the Miami Marlins are knocking in 4.4 runs per contest, which is 17th in baseball.

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The Marlins have an ERA of 4.16 so far this season (16th in the league), and the staff has struck out 1,265 batters. Marlins pitchers have allowed 167 long balls and 695 total runs (17th in the league). They have walked 542 opposing hitters and their FIP sits at 4.19 as a unit on the campaign. Miami has given up 1,229 base hits (8.1 per 9 innings) in addition to 634 earned runs. Their strikeout to walk ratio sits at 2.33 and their pitching staff holds a WHIP of 1.29.

The Marlins relief pitchers have a save rate of 61.1% and have stepped onto the mound in 145 save situations. They have compiled 33 saves so far this year and have not converted 21 of their 54 chances to get a save. The relief pitchers have inherited 199 runners this season with 28.1% of them ended up scoring. Marlins bullpen pitchers have come into the game with runners on base 141 times in addition to having 153 appearances in high leverage situations. The Marlins have dispatched 520 relief pitchers to the hill for the year. The bullpen have a total of 88 holds so far this year (11th in MLB).

The Miami Marlins have amassed 4,117 putouts this season, as well as 1,303 assists and 97 errors. Their fielding percentage is currently at .982 which ranks 28th in the majors, and they have turned 109 double plays. The Marlins have converted 70.5% of balls hit into play into outs out of 12,351 innings on the diamond, which ranks them 11th in the majors.

Gusto (8-12 mark in his career) holds a FIP of 4.93 while going up against 822 hitters in the major leagues. He has given up 207 base knocks (10.2 hits per nine innings) and has 62 free passes. His ERA is 5.01 (102 earned runs allowed) and he has a career WHIP of 1.467. Gusto has pitched in 183 innings and has totaled 166 strikeouts so far in his pro baseball career.

The Chicago Cubs are sitting with an on-base percentage of .340 in addition to a batting average of .252 this season. They have been called out on strikes on 1,294 occasions (16th in the league) and have notched a total of 1,350 base hits. Chicago has knocked in 217 HRs for the year and 790 runs batted in. The Cubs hold a slugging percentage of .432 and they tally 5.35 runs per outing (1st in MLB). They have recorded 264 two-baggers, while getting a free base 654 times and putting up 835 runs.

The Chicago pitching staff have surrendered 683 runs for the season and come in with a team ERA of 4.16 (644 earned runs conceded). They have conceded 228 homers and they give up 4.42 runs per 9 innings (12th in MLB). The Cubs hold a team WHIP of 1.264 in addition to having a FIP of 4.64 as a staff over the course of the season. Their strikeout to walk ratio sits at 7.80 (1,212 strikeouts against 480 bases on balls). They are currently ranked 17th in the league as a pitching staff in total hits surrendered with 1,279.

They are currently ranked 26th in MLB with a save rate of 54.8%, and they have sent 498 bullpen pitchers onto the field so far this year. Their bullpen pitchers have come in 150 times in high leverage situations and on 158 occasions with runners on base. With 124 save situations, the Cubs have compiled 55 holds in addition to 28 blown saves. Chicago has had bullpen pitchers enter the contest in 62 save chances and they have tallied 34 saves. Chicago relief pitchers hold an inherited score percentage of 33.6% out of 223 inherited runners.

In 12,528 innings on the field, the Cubs hold a defensive efficiency of 71.9% (3rd in the majors). The Chicago Cubs have gotten 118 double plays and have a fielding percentage of .990 (1st in baseball). The Cubs have recorded 1,478 assists, 59 errors and have notched a total of 4,176 putouts this season.

Gausman (116-115 career record) has a 3.84 ERA while allowing 8.7 hits per 9 innings. He has a strikeout to walk ratio of 3.68 and he has gone up against 8,174 hitters thus far in his career. He has conceded a total of 835 ER's while earning a WHIP of 1.240 and a FIP of 3.8. In his career, Gausman has conceded 1,880 hits while he has totaled 2,004 punch outs in 1,955 innings pitched.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Chicago (-128)

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