Miami Marlins vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction, 8/16/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Miami Marlins vs Cincinnati Reds

Date: Sunday, August 16, 2026

Location: Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, OH

TV: Reds.TV

Odds/Point Spread: Miami (-160) Cincinnati (+132)

The Cincinnati Reds (58-62) will go up against the Miami Marlins (62-60) at Great American Ball Park on Sunday. The line on this contest has the Marlins at -160 and the Reds open at +132. The over/under has been set at 8.5. The starting pitchers are Eury Perez and Nick Lodolo.

Miami has a slugging rate of .404 and have struck out 990 times, while taking a walk on 410 occasions. They have recorded 513 runs batted in in addition to 1,010 hits this season, and their average at the plate is sitting at .250. The Marlins have hit 197 doubles as a unit and have knocked 124 balls out of the park. They have racked up 535 runs and hold an OBP of .326. As a team, the Miami Marlins are knocking in 4.4 runs per outing, which is 18th in baseball.

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The Marlins have compiled a team ERA of 3.98 so far this season (10th in MLB), and the staff has struck out 1,021 hitters. Marlins pitchers have conceded 124 home runs in addition to 524 runs in total (11th in baseball). Their pitching staff has walked 405 players from the other team and their FIP sits at 3.99 as a team on the campaign. Miami has allowed 931 base hits (7.8 per 9 innings) and also 474 earned runs. They have a strikeout to walk ratio of 2.52 and their pitching staff has recorded a WHIP of 1.25.

The Marlins relievers have accumulated a save rate of 65.9% and have come into the game in 113 save situations. They have recorded 29 saves for the year and have blown 15 of their 44 save opportunities. The relief pitchers have inherited 150 runners this season and 23.3% of those runners ended up scoring. Marlins bullpen pitchers have entered the contest with runners on base 102 times in addition to having 113 appearances in high leverage situations. The Marlins have sent 390 relief pitchers to the hill for the season. The relievers have racked up 67 holds this year (13th in MLB).

The Marlins have converted 70.6% of baseballs in play into outs out of their 9,639 innings, which has them sitting 10th in pro baseball. The Miami Marlins have amassed 3,213 putouts on the year, as well as 1,007 assists and 80 errors. Their fielding rate is at .981 which is 29th in pro baseball, and have accumulated 90 double plays.

Perez (18-21 record in his career) holds a FIP of 3.55 while he has faced 1,230 opposing hitters during his time in the major leagues. He has allowed 225 base hits (6.7 hits per nine innings) and has 107 free passes. His earned run average is 3.60 (121 earned runs allowed) and his WHIP is 1.098. Perez has pitched in 302 innings and has accumulated 341 K's during his career.

The Cincinnati Reds are sitting with a team on-base percentage of .307 and a team batting average of .227 for the season. They have been rung up on 1,142 instances (3rd in the league) and have notched a total of 907 base knocks. Cincinnati has a total of 158 home runs this year and 473 RBIs. The Reds hold a slugging percentage of .395 and they average 4.13 runs per game (23rd in the league). They have hit 173 two-baggers, while taking a walk 434 times as well as putting up 496 runs.

The Reds hold a team WHIP of 1.405 with a FIP of 4.67 as a team so far this season. They sit at 18th in the league as a staff in total hits surrendered with 1,000. The Cincinnati pitching staff have relinquished 573 runs so far this year while holding a team ERA of 4.51 (534 earned runs relinquished). Their K/BB ratio is 8.10 (965 strikeouts against 498 walks). They have allowed 151 long balls and they allow 4.84 runs per 9 innings (21st in baseball).

With 119 save situations, the Reds have earned 67 holds and also 18 blown saves. Cincinnati has had relief pitchers step onto the hill in 49 save opportunities and they have tallied 31 saves. Cincinnati relief pitchers hold an inherited score percentage of 28.0% out of their 186 inherited base runners. Their relievers have come in 149 times in high leverage situations and on 131 occasions with base runners. They are currently ranked 16th in the league with a save rate of 63.3%, and they have dispatched 426 relievers onto the diamond for the season.

The Cincinnati Reds have turned 82 double plays and own a fielding percentage of .985 (18th in the majors). The Reds have recorded 969 assists, 63 errors and have earned 3,198 putouts so far this year. Out of their 9,594 innings on the field, the Reds are sitting with a efficiency on defense of 70.4% (12th in MLB).

So far in his pro baseball career, Lodolo has allowed 449 hits while he has accumulated 511 punch outs in 475 innings pitched. Lodolo (27-24 win-loss mark in his career) holds a 4.18 ERA and has given up 8.5 hits per nine innings. He has allowed a total of 221 earned runs while earning a WHIP of 1.247 and being the owner of a FIP of 4.1. His K/BB ratio is 3.55 and he has faced 2,039 batters in his pro baseball career.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Cincinnati (+132)

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