Miami Marlins vs Houston Astros Prediction, 7/22/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Miami Marlins vs Houston Astros

Date: Wednesday, July 22, 2026

Location: Daikin Park in Houston, TX

TV: Space City Home Network

Odds/Point Spread: Miami (+162) Houston (-196)

The Houston Astros (48-54) are hosting the Miami Marlins (52-49) at Daikin Park on Wednesday. The moneyline on this matchup has the Marlins at +162 while the Astros are opening at -196. The total comes in at 8.5. The starting pitchers are Sandy Alcantara and Peter Lambert.

The Marlins have accumulated 167 two-baggers as a squad and have hit 103 baseballs out of the park. Miami has a slugging percentage of .408 and have been rung up 824 times, while taking a walk on 341 occasions. As a team, the Miami Marlins are notching 4.5 runs per game, which has them at 14th in baseball. They have amassed 435 runs batted in and 846 hits on the year, while their batting average comes in at .252. They have accumulated 452 runs and have an OBP of .328.

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Their strikeout to walk ratio is 2.46 and their pitching staff has earned a collective WHIP of 1.25. Marlins pitchers have conceded 100 long balls and 436 total runs (11th in the league). Miami has conceded 762 base hits (7.7 per 9 innings) as well as 400 earned runs. The Marlins have an earned run average of 4.05 on the year (11th in the league), and the staff has rung up 858 batters. They have walked 349 batters and their FIP is 4.01 as a unit so far this season.

The Marlins bullpen have a save rate of 63.9% and stepped onto the hill in 96 save situations. They have earned 23 saves this season and have blown 13 of their 36 save opportunities. The relievers have inherited 127 base runners for the year with 19.7% of them ended up scoring. Marlins relief pitchers have entered the game with runners on 87 times and also have had 98 appearances in high leverage situations. The Marlins have dispatched 324 relievers to the hill over the course of the season. The relievers have a total of 58 holds on the campaign (11th in the league).

The Marlins have turned 70.7% of baseballs in play into outs out of their 7,992 innings, which has them ranked 10th in the majors. The Miami Marlins have a total of 2,664 putouts on the campaign, in addition to 825 assists and 64 errors. Their fielding percentage is holding at .982 which has them ranked 25th in the majors, and have 72 double plays.

Alcantara (62-72 career win-loss mark) sits with a FIP of 3.62 and he has gone up against 4,993 batters during his time in the majors. He has surrendered 1,064 base hits (7.9 hits per 9 innings) and has 367 walks. His earned run average is 3.68 (495 ER's allowed) and he has a WHIP of 1.181. Alcantara has pitched in 1,211 innings and is sitting with 1,038 K's thus far in his career.

Houston has knocked in 137 home runs this year to go along with 442 runs batted in. They have hit 155 two-baggers, while walking 339 times as well as notching 463 runs. The Houston Astros have tallied an on-base percentage of .315 and a team batting average of .241 this season. The Astros have a slugging percentage of .411 and they tally 4.54 runs per game (12th in the league). They have been called out on strikes on 831 occasions (17th in MLB) and have earned a total of 826 base hits.

The Houston pitching staff have allowed 513 runs on the year while having an ERA of 4.75 (477 earned runs surrendered). They have surrendered 141 homers and they concede 5.11 runs per 9 innings (25th in MLB). The Astros are sitting with a team WHIP of 1.397 and have a FIP of 4.84 as a team for the season. Their K/BB ratio comes in at 8.90 (896 strikeouts against 448 free passes). They have a ranking of 14th in the league as a pitching staff in total hits surrendered with 814.

Sitting with 79 save situations, the Astros have accrued 45 holds in addition to 6 blown saves. Houston has called on bullpen pitchers to take the mound in 34 save chances and they have earned 28 saves. Houston bullpen pitchers hold an inherited score rate of 28.6% out of their 140 inherited runners. Their relief pitchers have taken the field 98 times in high leverage situations and also on 93 occasions with runners on base. They are currently ranked 1st in the league holding a save rate of 82.4%, and they have sent 322 relievers onto the diamond so far this season.

Out of their 8,130 innings played, the Astros have a defensive efficiency of 70.7% (11th in pro baseball). The Houston Astros have turned 82 double plays and hold a fielding percentage of .988 (7th in professional baseball). The Astros have recorded 744 assists, 43 errors and have 2,710 putouts for the year.

Lambert (16-24 career win-loss mark) has a 5.40 earned run average while giving up 9.7 hits per nine innings. His strikeout to walk ratio is 2.08 and he has faced 1,484 batters during his pro baseball career. He has allowed 201 earned runs while earning a WHIP of 1.474 and being the owner of a FIP of 5.3. So far in his pro baseball career, Lambert has surrendered 363 base hits and he has 272 punch outs in 335 innings.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Miami (+162)

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