Miami Marlins vs New York Mets Prediction, 7/30/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Miami Marlins vs New York Mets

Date: Thursday, July 30, 2026

Location: Citi Field in Queens, NY

TV: Sportsnet New York

Odds/Point Spread: Miami (+132) New York (-160)

Citi Field is the location where the New York Mets (45-62) will take on the Miami Marlins (54-54) on Thursday. The moneyline on this contest has Miami at +132 and New York is sitting at -160. The total is 9. The pitchers taking the mound will be Eury Perez and Nolan McLean.

As a unit, the Miami Marlins are putting up 4.4 runs per outing, which puts them at 17th in the league. They have 473 runs while holding a team on-base percentage of .326. The Marlins have accrued 178 doubles as a squad and have knocked 110 balls out of the stadium. They have amassed 454 runs batted in in addition to 900 base knocks this year, while their team batting average is at .251. Miami has a slugging rate of .406 and have been rung up 884 times, while drawing a walk on 360 occasions.

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They have accumulated a K/BB ratio of 2.46 and the pitching staff holds a collective WHIP of 1.25. Marlins pitchers have allowed 109 long balls and also 469 runs in total (11th in MLB). Miami has yielded 822 hits (7.8 per 9 innings) and also 429 earned runs. The Marlins have an ERA of 4.07 for the year (10th in the league), and their staff has struck out 903 batters. Their pitching staff has walked 367 opposing players and their FIP sits at 4.05 as a squad on the campaign.

The Marlins bullpen have a save percentage of 61.5% and have entered the game in 103 save situations. They have 24 saves on the season and have blown 15 out of their 39 save opportunities. The bullpen pitchers have inherited 136 runners on the season with 22.1% of them crossing home plate. Marlins bullpen pitchers have stepped onto the hill with opponents on base 93 times in addition to having 104 appearances in high leverage situations. The Marlins have dispatched 346 relievers to the mound for the year. The relief pitchers have tallied 62 holds on the year (10th in MLB).

The Marlins have converted 70.6% of balls hit into play into outs out of their 8,541 innings, which ranks them 11th in the majors. The Miami Marlins are sitting with 2,847 putouts thus far, in addition to 894 assists and 70 errors. Their fielding percentage is at .982 which is 26th in professional baseball, and have accumulated 81 double plays.

Perez has pitched in 284 innings and has earned 319 strikeouts during his MLB career. His ERA is 3.67 (116 ER's allowed) and his WHIP is 1.101. He has conceded 212 base hits (6.7 hits per 9 innings) with 101 walks. Perez (17-20 career mark) holds a FIP of 3.62 and he has faced 1,158 hitters during his time in the major leagues.

The New York Mets have recorded an OBP of .307 in addition to a batting average of .235 over the course of the season. They have struck out on 899 occasions (15th in baseball) and have tallied 847 base hits. New York has compiled 129 long balls over the course of the season as well as 425 runs batted in. The Mets hold a team slugging percentage of .387 and they score 4.17 runs per contest (25th in the league). They have 132 doubles, while taking a walk 345 times and recording 446 runs.

The Mets have a WHIP of 1.301 in addition to having a FIP of 4.02 as a squad for the season. They sit at 11th in baseball as a staff in total hits conceded with 862. The New York pitching staff have conceded 497 runs this year while having an ERA of 4.18 (442 earned runs allowed). Their K/BB ratio sits at 9.20 (971 strikeouts against 377 bases on balls). They have given up 117 homers and they allow 4.70 runs per 9 innings (19th in the league).

Sitting with 71 save situations, the Mets have accrued 41 holds and 13 blown saves. New York has called on relievers to take the mound in 30 save opportunities and they have walked away with 17 saves. New York relievers have an inherited score rate of 28.9% out of their 142 inherited base runners. Their bullpen pitchers have taken the field 110 times in high leverage situations and also on 103 occasions with runners on. They rank 25th in the league with a save rate of 56.7%, and they have dispatched 329 relief pitchers to the hill this year.

In their 8,574 innings on the field, the Mets have accumulated a defensive efficiency of 69.3% (20th in professional baseball). The New York Mets have gotten 63 double plays and hold a fielding percentage of .981 (28th in pro baseball). The Mets have recorded 870 assists, 71 errors and are sitting with 2,858 putouts so far this season.

McLean (12-8 win-loss record in his career) holds a 2.96 ERA and has allowed 6.7 hits per 9 innings. He has a K/BB ratio of 3.37 and he has faced 684 opposing batters during his career. He has given up 55 earned runs while holding a WHIP of 1.095 and having a FIP of 2.9. During his pro baseball career, McLean has given up 124 base knocks while he has totaled 199 strikeouts in 167 innings pitched.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take New York (-160)

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