Miami Marlins vs New York Mets Prediction, 7/31/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Miami Marlins vs New York Mets

Date: Friday, July 31, 2026

Location: Citi Field in Queens, NY

TV: Sportsnet New York

Odds/Point Spread: Miami (+120) New York (-144)

The Miami Marlins (55-54) are headed to Citi Field on Friday where they will try to defeat the New York Mets (46-63). The line on this matchup has Miami at +120 and New York is sitting at -144. The betting total is set at 8. The expected starting pitchers are Janson Junk and Freddy Peralta.

Miami has a slugging percentage of .407 and have struck out 890 times, while drawing a walk on 365 occasions. They have compiled 462 RBI's in addition to 908 hits this season, while their team batting average is at .251. The Marlins have earned 180 doubles as a squad and have smacked 112 baseballs out of the stadium. They are sitting with 481 runs and have an on-base percentage of .327. As a team, the Miami Marlins are scoring 4.4 runs per game, which has them at 15th in MLB.

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The Marlins have compiled a team ERA of 4.09 this season (10th in the league), and they have struck out 910 batters. Marlins pitchers have conceded 110 home runs and 475 runs in total (13th in the league). Their pitching staff has walked 371 hitters and their FIP sits at 4.05 as a squad so far this season. Miami has conceded 831 base hits (7.8 per 9 innings) and also 435 earned runs. They have a strikeout to walk ratio of 2.45 and their pitching staff holds a collective WHIP of 1.25.

The Marlins have sent 349 relievers to the mound so far this season. The relief pitchers have inherited 136 base runners on the season and 22.1% of those runners crossing home plate. The bullpen are sitting with 62 holds on the campaign (11th in the league). Marlins relief pitchers have gone to the mound with players on base 93 times in addition to having 105 appearances in high leverage situations. They have compiled 25 saves this year and have blown 15 of their 40 chances to save the game. The Marlins relief pitchers have recorded a save rate of 62.5% and have entered the game in 104 save situations.

The Miami Marlins have notched a total of 2,874 putouts this year, as well as 906 assists and 70 errors. Their fielding rate sits at .982 which puts them in 24th in pro baseball, and have a total of 84 double plays. The Marlins have turned 70.6% of baseballs in play into outs in their 8,622 innings, which ranks them 10th in the majors.

Junk has taken the ball for 223 innings and is sitting with 168 punch outs in his pro baseball career. His ERA is 4.88 (121 ER's allowed) and his WHIP is 1.326. He has surrendered 252 base hits (10.2 hits per 9 innings) with 44 free passes. Junk (11-13 record in his career) has earned a FIP of 4.81 and he has faced 952 batters in the majors.

The Mets have a SLG% of .383 and they average 4.12 runs per game (26th in baseball). They have put up 134 doubles, while walking 351 times and earning 449 runs. New York has 129 long balls so far this season as well as 428 runs batted in. They have been called out on strikes on 920 instances (13th in MLB) and have notched a total of 855 hits. The New York Mets have accounted for a team on-base percentage of .305 and a batting average of .234 for the season.

The New York pitching staff have relinquished 500 runs for the season while holding a team ERA of 4.13 (445 earned runs surrendered). They have conceded 118 home runs and they relinquish 4.64 runs per 9 innings (19th in the league). The Mets have a WHIP of 1.295 with a FIP of 3.99 as a team so far this season. They currently have a K/BB ratio of 9.20 (989 strikeouts vs 380 free passes). They come in at 14th in baseball as a staff in total hits conceded with 876.

New York relievers have an inherited score percentage of 28.9% out of their 142 inherited base runners. Their relievers have come in 113 times in high leverage situations and also on 103 occasions with runners on base. With 73 save situations, the Mets have 42 holds and 13 blown saves. They rank 21st in the league with a save rate of 58.1%, and they have dispatched 335 relievers to the mound on the year.

The New York Mets have gotten 66 double plays and have a fielding percentage of .981 (29th in the majors). The Mets have recorded 884 assists, 72 errors and are sitting with 2,912 putouts so far this season. Out of their 8,736 innings on the diamond, the Mets have accumulated a defensive efficiency of 69.3% (21st in MLB).

During his pro baseball career, Peralta has surrendered 814 hits while accumulating 1,266 punch outs in 1,044 innings pitched. Peralta (75-51 career mark) is the owner of a 3.74 ERA and has allowed 7.0 hits per 9 innings. He has surrendered 434 ER's while holding a WHIP of 1.170 and a FIP of 3.7. His strikeout to walk ratio is 3.10 and he has gone up against 4,365 batters in his career.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Miami (+120)

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