Miami Marlins vs New York Mets Prediction, 8/1/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Miami Marlins vs New York Mets

Date: Saturday, August 1, 2026

Location: Citi Field in Queens, NY

TV: Sportsnet New York

Odds/Point Spread: Miami (+125) New York (-150)

The Miami Marlins (55-55) are headed to Citi Field on Saturday where they will play the New York Mets (47-63). The moneyline on this game has the Marlins at +125 and the Mets are at -150. The over/under is 9. The starting pitchers are Tyler Phillips and Zac Thornton.

The Marlins have tallied 180 doubles as a squad and have knocked 114 balls out of the stadium. Miami is slugging .407 and have struck out 899 times, while drawing a walk on 368 occasions. As a unit, the Miami Marlins are scoring 4.4 runs per game, which has them at 16th in MLB. They have accumulated 464 runs batted in and 915 base knocks on the season, and their average at the plate is sitting at .251. They have racked up 483 runs and hold an on-base percentage of .326.

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They have accumulated a K/BB ratio of 2.46 and the pitching staff has a collective WHIP of 1.25. Marlins pitchers have conceded 110 home runs in addition to 479 runs in total (14th in MLB). Miami has surrendered 837 base hits (7.8 per 9 innings) and also 438 earned runs. The Marlins are sitting with a team earned run average of 4.08 for the year (11th in the league), and their staff has rung up 918 hitters. Their pitching staff has walked 373 opposing players and their FIP is 4.03 as a team over the course of the season.

The Marlins relievers have compiled a save rate of 62.5% and have entered the game in 104 save situations. They have tallied 25 saves so far this season and have blown 15 of 40 chances to get a save. The relievers have inherited 137 base runners this season with 21.9% of those runners crossing home plate. Marlins relief pitchers have stepped onto the hill with runners on base 94 times and also have had 107 appearances in high leverage situations. The Marlins have sent 352 relief pitchers to the mound this year. The relievers have recorded 62 holds this season (11th in baseball).

The Marlins have converted 70.6% of balls in play into outs out of their 8,694 innings on the field, which ranks them 10th in professional baseball. The Miami Marlins have amassed 2,898 putouts this season, as well as 913 assists and 71 errors. Their fielding percentage is at .982 which has them sitting 25th in the majors, and have a total of 84 double plays.

Phillips has taken the ball for 198 innings and has accumulated 143 strikeouts in his career. Phillips (8-7 record in his career) has a FIP of 3.80 while he has faced 835 opposing hitters in the majors. His ERA is 3.86 (85 earned runs allowed) and his career WHIP is 1.292. He has surrendered 187 base hits (8.5 hits per nine innings) and has 69 walks.

The Mets hold a slugging percentage of .382 and they are earning 4.12 runs per outing (26th in baseball). They have put up 135 doubles, while taking a walk 353 times and putting up 453 runs. New York has hit 129 home runs for the year and 431 RBIs. They have been called out on strikes on 928 occasions (13th in baseball) and have earned a total of 861 base hits. The New York Mets hold a team OBP of .305 and a team batting average of .233 so far this year.

The New York pitching staff have conceded 502 runs this season while holding an ERA of 4.11 (447 earned runs yielded). They have given up 120 home runs and they concede 4.61 runs per 9 innings (19th in the league). The Mets hold a team WHIP of 1.293 with a FIP of 3.99 as a pitching staff on the season. Their K/BB ratio comes in at 9.20 (998 strikeouts vs 383 walks). They are currently ranked 15th in the league as a pitching staff in total hits relinquished with 883.

They are currently ranked 20th in the league with a save rate of 59.4%, and they have dispatched 337 bullpen pitchers to the hill this season. Their relief pitchers have stepped onto the mound 115 times in high leverage situations and on 104 occasions with runners on base. With 74 save situations, the Mets have recorded 42 holds and also 13 blown saves. New York has had relief pitchers enter the contest in 32 save opportunities and they have walked away with 19 saves. New York bullpen pitchers hold an inherited score percentage of 28.7% out of 143 inherited base runners.

In their 8,817 innings played, the Mets hold a defensive efficiency of 69.4% (19th in professional baseball). The New York Mets have turned 67 double plays and own a fielding percentage of .981 (29th in pro baseball). The Mets have recorded 890 assists, 73 errors and have earned 2,939 putouts on the season.

During his MLB career, Thornton has given up 20 hits while he has accumulated 22 punch outs in 29 innings. Thornton (2-1 career mark) has a 2.47 earned run average and has given up 6.2 hits per nine innings. He has given up a total of 8 earned runs while holding a WHIP of 0.925 and being the owner of a FIP of 2.4. His strikeout to walk ratio is 3.14 and he has gone up against 110 batters thus far in his career.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Parlay's Pundit's Pick: Take New York (-150) and under 9 runs

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