Miami Marlins vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction, 5/16/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Miami Marlins vs Tampa Bay Rays

Date: Saturday, May 16, 2026

Location: Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, FL

TV: MLB.TV

Odds/Point Spread: Miami (+132) Tampa Bay (-160)

The Miami Marlins (20-24) are on their way to Tropicana Field on Saturday where they will try to defeat the Tampa Bay Rays (28-14). The odds on this game have Miami at +132 and Tampa Bay is sitting at -160. The over/under is 8.5. The pitchers taking the mound are Sandy Alcantara and Nick Martinez.

The Marlins have hit 68 two-baggers as a unit and have knocked 33 balls out of the stadium. Miami has a slugging percentage of .371 and have been rung up 356 times, while drawing a walk on 150 occasions. As a unit, the Miami Marlins are compiling 4.2 runs per outing, which has them sitting at 19th in MLB. They have compiled 175 runs batted in in addition to 353 base knocks for the year, and their team batting average is at .243. They have tallied 186 runs while having a team on-base percentage of .322.

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They have accumulated a K/BB ratio of 2.22 and the pitching staff holds a collective WHIP of 1.27. Marlins pitchers have allowed 37 long balls and also 196 total runs (18th in MLB). Miami has surrendered 326 hits (7.6 per 9 innings) in addition to 179 earned runs. The Marlins hold a team ERA of 4.17 for the season (17th in the league), and their staff has rung up 369 batters. Their pitching staff has walked 166 players from the other team and their FIP is 3.87 as a unit so far this season.

The Marlins relief pitchers have compiled a save rate of 63.2% and have come into the game in 43 save situations. They have accumulated 12 saves this season and have blown 7 of their 19 chances to save the game. The relievers have inherited 47 base runners so far this year with 25.5% of them crossing home plate. Marlins bullpen pitchers have entered the contest with runners on base 32 times in addition to having 39 appearances in high leverage situations. The Marlins have sent 135 relievers to the mound over the course of the season. The relief pitchers have notched 23 holds this year (19th in MLB).

The Marlins have transformed 70.9% of baseballs in play into outs out of their 3,480 innings, which ranks them 9th in the majors. The Miami Marlins have a tally of 1,160 putouts at this point in the season, as well as 349 assists and 29 errors. Their fielding percentage sits at .981 which puts them in 28th in pro baseball, and have 28 double plays.

Alcantara has taken the ball for 1,132 innings and is sitting with 970 punch outs in his career. Alcantara (55-69 career record) sits with a FIP of 3.61 while he has gone up against 4,667 batters in the major leagues. His earned run average is 3.66 (461 ER's allowed) and he has a career WHIP of 1.181. He has given up 987 base knocks (7.8 hits per nine innings) and has 350 free passes.

The Tampa Bay Rays are sitting with a team on-base percentage of .330 and a team batting average of .257 so far this season. They have struck out on 301 occasions (29th in MLB) and have accounted for 364 base hits. Tampa Bay has 34 HRs so far this season and 177 runs batted in. The Rays have a team slugging % of .375 and they average 4.50 runs per game (11th in the league). They have recorded 51 doubles, while walking 139 times and putting up 189 runs.

The Rays hold a team WHIP of 1.169 in addition to having a FIP of 4.02 as a squad over the course of the season. They sit at 3rd in MLB as a staff in total hits conceded with 306. The Tampa Bay pitching staff have given up 167 runs this year while holding an ERA of 3.50 (147 earned runs given up). They have earned a strikeout to walk ratio of 7.80 (327 strikeouts against 136 bases on balls). They have surrendered 43 long balls and they give up 3.97 runs per 9 innings (7th in baseball).

Tampa Bay relief pitchers have an inherited score rate of 27.3% of 55 inherited runners. Their relief pitchers have come in 49 times in high leverage situations and on 43 occasions with runners on. Sitting with 62 save situations, the Rays have 36 holds in addition to 7 blown saves. They are currently ranked 5th in baseball holding a save rate of 73.1%, and they have sent 138 relief pitchers to the hill for the season.

In 3,408 innings played, the Rays hold a defensive efficiency of 73.3% (2nd in pro baseball). The Tampa Bay Rays have turned 25 double plays and have a fielding percentage of .981 (29th in baseball). The Rays have recorded 340 assists, 29 errors and have a total of 1,136 putouts for the season.

Martinez (52-60 career win-loss record) has earned a 4.04 ERA while surrendering 8.9 hits per nine innings. His strikeout to walk ratio is 2.34 and he has gone up against 4,180 hitters so far in his MLB career. He has given up a total of 443 ER's while holding a WHIP of 1.291 and having a FIP of 4.0. So far in his MLB career, Martinez has surrendered 975 base knocks while earning 701 K's in 987 frames.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Tampa Bay (-160)

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