Miami Marlins vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction, 5/17/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Miami Marlins vs Tampa Bay Rays

Date: Sunday, May 17, 2026

Location: Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, FL

TV: MLB.TV

Odds/Point Spread: Miami (+125) Tampa Bay (-145)

The Tampa Bay Rays (28-14) will try to beat the Miami Marlins (20-24) at Tropicana Field on Sunday. The moneyline on this game has Miami at +125 while Tampa Bay is sitting at -145. The over/under has been set at 9. The expected starting pitchers will be Eury Perez and Drew Rasmussen.

Miami has a slugging % of .371 and have been called out on strikes 356 times, while taking a walk on 150 occasions. They have tallied 175 runs batted in and 353 base knocks over the course of the season, while their average at the plate is sitting at .243. The Marlins have accumulated 68 two-baggers as a squad and have hit 33 balls out of the park. They have notched a total of 186 runs while having a team on-base percentage of .322. As a team, the Miami Marlins are putting up 4.2 runs per game, which ranks them 19th in the league.

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They have earned a strikeout to walk ratio of 2.22 and the pitching staff has recorded a WHIP of 1.27. Marlins pitchers have surrendered 37 home runs in addition to 196 runs (18th in MLB). Miami has surrendered 326 base hits (7.6 per 9 innings) and also 179 earned runs. The Marlins hold a team earned run average of 4.17 for the season (17th in MLB), and their staff has rung up 369 batters. They have walked 166 opposing hitters and their FIP sits at 3.87 as a team on the season.

Marlins bullpen pitchers have entered the contest with runners on 32 times as well as having 39 appearances in high leverage situations. The relievers have notched 23 holds this season (19th in the league). The Marlins bullpen have compiled a save rate of 63.2% and stepped onto the hill in 43 save situations. They have recorded 12 saves on the season and have blown 7 of 19 chances to get a save. The relief pitchers have inherited 47 base runners for the year and 25.5% of those runners crossing home plate. The Marlins have sent 135 relief pitchers to the mound for the season.

The Miami Marlins have a total of 1,160 putouts this season, in addition to 349 assists and 29 errors. Their fielding rate is holding steady at .981 which has them ranked 28th in MLB, and have earned 28 double plays. The Marlins have turned 70.9% of baseballs in play into outs out of 3,480 innings on the diamond, which has them sitting 9th in MLB.

Perez (14-17 record in his career) is the owner of a FIP of 3.91 while he has gone up against 966 opposing hitters in the majors. He has given up 181 base hits (7.0 hits per nine innings) with 87 free passes. His earned run average is 3.97 (103 earned runs allowed) and he has a WHIP of 1.149. Perez has thrown 233 innings and has tallied 266 punch outs so far in his MLB career.

The Rays have a team slugging % of .375 and they have an average of 4.50 runs per contest (11th in the league). They have recorded 51 two-baggers, while taking a walk 139 times as well as scoring 189 runs. Tampa Bay has 34 long balls on the campaign and 177 runs batted in. They have been called out on strikes on 301 occasions (29th in MLB) and have recorded 364 base knocks. The Tampa Bay Rays hold a team OBP of .330 and a team batting average of .257 this season.

The Rays are sitting with a team WHIP of 1.169 and are the owners of a FIP of 4.02 as a unit this year. They have a ranking of 3rd in baseball as a pitching staff in total hits given up with 306. The Tampa Bay pitching staff have allowed 167 runs for the season while holding an ERA of 3.50 (147 earned runs given up). Their K/BB ratio sits at 7.80 (327 strikeouts against 136 walks). They have conceded 43 homers and they relinquish 3.97 runs per 9 innings (7th in the league).

Tampa Bay relievers hold an inherited score rate of 27.3% of 55 inherited runners. Their relievers have stepped onto the mound 49 times in high leverage situations and also on 43 occasions with base runners. With 62 save situations, the Rays have compiled 36 holds in addition to 7 blown saves. They are ranked 5th in baseball holding a save rate of 73.1%, and they have dispatched 138 relievers to the hill on the season.

Out of their 3,408 innings on the diamond, the Rays have a defensive efficiency of 73.3% (2nd in pro baseball). The Tampa Bay Rays have gotten 25 double plays and own a fielding percentage of .981 (29th in MLB). The Rays have recorded 340 assists, 29 errors and have 1,136 putouts for the season.

During his MLB career, Rasmussen has conceded 404 hits while he has earned 471 punch outs in 502 innings pitched. Rasmussen (33-18 career mark) holds a 2.92 earned run average while allowing 7.2 hits per nine innings. He has surrendered 163 ER's while holding a WHIP of 1.055 and being the owner of a FIP of 2.9. He has a strikeout to walk ratio of 3.74 and he has faced 2,010 opposing hitters in his career.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Miami (+125)

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