Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction, 7/4/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks

Date: Saturday, July 4, 2026

Location: Chase Field in Phoenix, AZ

TV: DBACKS.TV

Odds/Point Spread: Milwaukee (-182) Arizona (+150)

The Arizona Diamondbacks (43-43) host the Milwaukee Brewers (53-32) at Chase Field on Saturday. The line on this contest has the Brewers at -182 and the Diamondbacks are priced at +150. The over/under has been set at 8. The expected starting pitchers are Brandon Woodruff and Merrill Kelly.

As a unit, the Milwaukee Brewers are putting up 5.1 runs per game, which has them at 5th in MLB. They are sitting with 436 runs scored and have an OBP of .338. The Brewers have earned 147 two-baggers as a unit and have hit 79 balls out of the park. They have recorded 411 runs batted in as well as 730 hits this year, while their average at the plate is sitting at .254. Milwaukee has a slugging rate of .396 and have been called out on strikes 697 times, while being walked on 356 occasions.

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The Brewers are sitting with a team ERA of 3.36 over the course of the season (1st in the league), and the staff has struck out 843 batters. Brewers pitchers have relinquished 83 home runs and 312 runs (2nd in MLB). They have walked 284 players from the other team and their FIP sits at 3.55 as a unit on the year. Milwaukee has given up 617 hits (7.3 per 9 innings) as well as 285 earned runs. They have earned a strikeout to walk ratio of 2.97 and their pitching staff sits with a WHIP of 1.18.

The Brewers have sent 260 relievers to the mound on the campaign. The bullpen pitchers have inherited 100 base runners so far this season with 37.0% of them crossing home plate. The relief pitchers have a total of 40 holds so far this year (20th in the league). Brewers bullpen pitchers have entered the contest with runners on 70 times and also have had 86 appearances in high leverage situations. They have compiled 27 saves over the course of the season and have not converted 14 of 41 chances to save the game. The Brewers relief pitchers have a save percentage of 65.9% and have entered the game in 82 save situations.

The Milwaukee Brewers have earned a total of 2,288 putouts thus far, as well as 651 assists and 34 errors. Their fielding percentage is currently at .989 which is 6th in pro baseball, and have accumulated 66 double plays. The Brewers have transformed 70.9% of balls hit into play into outs out of 6,864 innings, which has them sitting at 7th in the majors.

Woodruff has pitched in 786 innings and has accumulated 912 K's so far in his pro baseball career. Woodruff (55-29 career record) has a FIP of 3.03 while going up against 3,144 batters during his time in the major leagues. His earned run average is 3.08 (269 ER's allowed) and he has a career WHIP of 1.024. He has surrendered 606 base knocks (6.9 hits per nine innings) and has had 199 free passes.

Arizona has accumulated 78 home runs this season as well as 353 runs batted in. They have tallied 148 doubles, while getting a free base 271 times as well as putting up 367 runs. The Arizona Diamondbacks have compiled a team on-base percentage of .308 and a team batting average of .238 on the season. The Diamondbacks have a SLG% of .386 and they are earning 4.27 runs per game (19th in baseball). They have struck out on 620 instances (29th in MLB) and have recorded 678 base hits.

The Diamondbacks hold a team WHIP of 1.289 and have a FIP of 4.53 as a staff on the season. They currently have a strikeout to walk ratio of 6.90 (580 strikeouts against 252 walks). They rank 21st in MLB as a pitching staff in total hits given up with 723. They have relinquished 106 homers and they concede 4.68 runs per 9 innings (19th in MLB). The Arizona pitching staff have surrendered 393 runs so far this season while holding an ERA of 4.32 (363 earned runs relinquished).

They rank 10th in the league holding a save rate of 68.8%, and they have sent 277 relief pitchers onto the diamond this season. Their relievers have stepped onto the mound 87 times in high leverage situations and on 76 occasions with base runners. Sitting with 79 save situations, the Diamondbacks have 46 holds in addition to 10 blown saves. Arizona has called on relief pitchers to step onto the mound in 32 save opportunities and they have recorded 22 saves. Arizona bullpen pitchers have an inherited score percentage of 28.2% of 110 inherited runners.

The Arizona Diamondbacks have gotten 71 double plays and have a fielding percentage of .990 (3rd in pro baseball). The Diamondbacks have racked up 743 assists, 30 errors and have earned a total of 2,270 putouts this year. In 6,810 innings played, the Diamondbacks have earned a defensive efficiency of 71.5% (5th in professional baseball).

So far in his career, Kelly has surrendered 999 hits while earning 958 K's in 1,089 innings pitched. He has given up a total of 475 ER's while earning a WHIP of 1.223 and being the owner of a FIP of 3.9. He has a strikeout to walk ratio of 2.88 and he has gone up against 4,505 batters so far in his career. Kelly (70-61 career mark) has earned a 3.92 ERA while allowing 8.3 hits per 9 innings.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Milwaukee (-182)

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