Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction, 7/11/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates

Date: Saturday, July 11, 2026

Location: PNC Park in Pittsburgh, PA

TV: SportsNet Pittsburgh

Odds/Point Spread: Milwaukee (-152) Pittsburgh (+126)

PNC Park is the location where the Pittsburgh Pirates (47-47) will try to beat the Milwaukee Brewers (59-34) on Saturday. The moneyline on this game has Milwaukee at -152 while Pittsburgh is at +126. The betting total is set at 8.5. The pitchers who are expected to start are Shane Drohan and Bubba Chandler.

The Brewers have compiled 166 doubles as a squad and have knocked 86 balls out of the stadium. Milwaukee has a slugging rate of .398 and have been rung up 759 times, while being walked on 382 occasions. As a team, the Milwaukee Brewers are putting up 5.1 runs per game, which has them sitting at 4th in the league. They have compiled 450 RBI's as well as 808 base knocks so far this year, and their team batting average sits at .255. They have earned a total of 476 runs and hold an OBP of .337.

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Their strikeout to walk ratio is 2.99 and their pitching staff has earned a collective WHIP of 1.16. Brewers pitchers have surrendered 90 home runs and also 339 runs (2nd in MLB). Milwaukee has surrendered 665 base hits (7.2 per 9 innings) and 309 earned runs. The Brewers have an ERA of 3.33 this year (1st in MLB), and the staff has rung up 903 hitters. Their pitching staff has walked 302 batters and their FIP comes in at 3.55 as a team on the season.

Brewers relief pitchers have come into the game with runners on 76 times in addition to having 98 appearances in high leverage situations. The relief pitchers have racked up 45 holds this year (18th in MLB). The Brewers relief pitchers have a save percentage of 68.2% and stepped onto the hill in 90 save situations. They have compiled 30 saves for the season and have blown 14 of 44 save chances. The bullpen pitchers have inherited 109 base runners this year and 37.6% of those players ended up scoring. The Brewers have sent 283 relief pitchers to the hill for the season.

The Brewers have converted 71.5% of balls hit into play into outs out of their 7,512 innings on the field, which has them sitting at 5th in pro baseball. The Milwaukee Brewers have accounted for 2,504 putouts at this point in the season, in addition to 716 assists and 38 errors. Their fielding rate is holding at .988 which ranks 6th in the majors, and have a total of 68 double plays.

Drohan has thrown 63 frames and has 61 strikeouts during his career. Drohan (4-2 career record) holds a FIP of 2.95 while he has gone up against 267 batters during his time in the majors. His earned run average is 2.99 (21 earned runs allowed) and his career WHIP is 1.250. He has allowed 59 hits (8.4 hits per nine innings) and has had 20 free passes.

Pittsburgh has hit 120 home runs on the season to go along with 472 RBIs. They have recorded 148 two-baggers, while getting a free base 356 times and racking up 492 runs. The Pittsburgh Pirates have tallied a team OBP of .340 and a team batting average of .262 so far this season. The Pirates hold a team SLG% of .423 and they average 5.23 runs per game (3rd in the league). They have been called out on strikes on 882 occasions (2nd in MLB) and have a total of 857 base hits.

The Pirates hold a team WHIP of 1.314 in addition to having a FIP of 4.03 as a pitching staff this year. They rank 18th in the league as a staff in total hits allowed with 763. The Pittsburgh pitching staff have surrendered 459 runs over the course of the season while having a team ERA of 4.32 (403 earned runs conceded). They currently have a K/BB ratio of 9.20 (858 strikeouts vs 340 bases on balls). They have allowed 100 HR's and they concede 4.92 runs per 9 innings (21st in MLB).

Sitting with 78 save situations, the Pirates have earned 43 holds in addition to 17 blown saves. Pittsburgh has called on relievers to step onto the hill in 34 save chances and they have earned 17 saves. Pittsburgh bullpen pitchers have an inherited score percentage of 30.6% out of their 124 inherited runners. Their bullpen pitchers have stepped onto the mound 84 times in high leverage situations and also on 87 occasions with runners on. They are ranked 28th in the league holding a save percentage of 50.0%, and they have dispatched 300 relievers onto the diamond on the year.

In their 7,557 innings on the field, the Pirates have a efficiency on defense of 69.1% (24th in professional baseball). The Pittsburgh Pirates have turned 71 double plays and hold a fielding percentage of .983 (21st in baseball). The Pirates have recorded 742 assists, 56 errors and are sitting with 2,519 putouts this season.

Chandler (7-9 career mark) is the owner of a 4.64 ERA while conceding 7.6 hits per 9 innings. He has a strikeout to walk ratio of 1.96 and he has gone up against 524 batters during his pro baseball career. He has surrendered 62 earned runs while earning a WHIP of 1.313 and being the owner of a FIP of 4.6. In his career, Chandler has conceded 102 base knocks while he has earned 110 strikeouts in 120 innings pitched.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Parlay's Pundit's Pick: Take Pittsburgh (+126) and under 8.5 runs

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