New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves Prediction, 7/4/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves

Date: Saturday, July 4, 2026

Location: Truist Park in Cumberland, GA

TV: Braves.TV

Odds/Point Spread: New York (+110) Atlanta (-130)

The Atlanta Braves (50-35) will try to defeat the New York Mets (36-51) at Truist Park on Saturday. The moneyline on this contest has New York at +110 while Atlanta is sitting at -130. The total comes in at 8. The starting pitchers are Sean Manaea and Chris Sale.

New York owns a slugging percentage of .375 and have been called out on strikes 726 times, while being walked on 262 occasions. They have recorded 332 RBI's as well as 667 base knocks for the year, and their batting average is .229. The Mets have recorded 105 two-baggers as a squad and have knocked 98 balls out of the park. They are sitting with 346 runs and hold an OBP of .298. As a squad, the New York Mets are notching 4.0 runs per outing, which has them sitting at 28th in MLB.

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The Mets have compiled a team ERA of 4.12 on the year (13th in MLB), and their staff has struck out 793 hitters. Mets pitchers have allowed 87 long balls and 395 runs in total (19th in MLB). Their pitching staff has walked 307 opposing players and their FIP sits at 3.87 as a unit on the campaign. New York has given up 687 hits (8.0 per 9 innings) in addition to 355 earned runs. They have a K/BB ratio of 2.58 and their pitching staff has earned a collective WHIP of 1.28.

The Mets relief pitchers have recorded a save rate of 60.9% and have come into the game in 55 save situations. They have earned 14 saves over the course of the season and have not converted 9 of their 23 save chances. The relief pitchers have inherited 114 runners so far this year and 31.6% of those runners ended up scoring. Mets relief pitchers have stepped onto the hill with runners on base 86 times as well as having 95 appearances in high leverage situations. The Mets have sent 264 relievers to the mound so far this season. The relievers have a total of 32 holds this year (28th in the league).

The Mets have converted 69.6% of balls hit into play into outs out of 6,981 innings, which has them sitting at 19th in pro baseball. The New York Mets have accumulated 2,327 putouts over the course of the season, in addition to 707 assists and 56 errors. Their fielding percentage is currently at .982 which has them ranked 28th in MLB, and they have turned 51 double plays.

Manaea (80-69 win-loss record in his career) is the owner of a FIP of 4.05 and he has gone up against 5,475 batters in the majors. He has surrendered 1,214 base hits (8.4 hits per nine innings) and has 369 free passes. His earned run average is 4.11 (598 ER's allowed) and his WHIP is 1.210. Manaea has pitched in 1,308 frames and has earned 1,248 strikeouts so far in his MLB career.

The Braves hold a slugging percentage of .404 and they are scoring 4.74 runs per game (9th in the league). They have tallied 128 two-baggers, while taking a walk 253 times as well as scoring 403 runs. Atlanta has recorded 104 home runs on the season to go along with 392 runs batted in. They have been rung up on 672 instances (25th in the league) and have recorded 709 hits. The Atlanta Braves have accounted for an on-base percentage of .311 in addition to a team batting average of .246 for the year.

The Atlanta pitching staff have allowed 319 runs this season while holding an ERA of 3.49 (292 earned runs relinquished). They have given up 91 HR's and they allow 3.81 runs per 9 innings (3rd in baseball). The Braves hold a team WHIP of 1.211 in addition to having a FIP of 3.98 as a squad this year. They have earned a strikeout to walk ratio of 8.70 (727 strikeouts vs 280 walks). They rank 3rd in baseball as a staff in total hits conceded with 632.

They are currently ranked 4th in the league with a save percentage of 75.0%, and they have sent 264 bullpen pitchers to the hill for the year. Their relievers have come in 85 times in high leverage situations and on 57 occasions with runners on. Sitting with 89 save situations, the Braves have accrued 54 holds and 8 blown saves. Atlanta has had relievers take the mound in 32 save opportunities and they have tallied 24 saves. Atlanta relief pitchers hold an inherited score percentage of 29.3% out of 82 inherited runners.

The Atlanta Braves have gotten 63 double plays and have earned a fielding percentage of .987 (11th in the majors). The Braves have racked up 694 assists, 38 errors and have a tally of 2,261 putouts so far this season. Out of their 6,783 innings on the diamond, the Braves hold a defensive efficiency of 71.9% (4th in pro baseball).

In his career, Sale has surrendered 1,767 base knocks and he has 2,688 punch outs in 2,174 innings. Sale (153-94 mark in his career) is the owner of a 2.97 ERA while allowing 7.3 hits per 9 innings. He has allowed 718 earned runs while holding a WHIP of 1.047 and a FIP of 2.9. His strikeout to walk ratio is 5.28 and he has gone up against 8,757 batters during his career.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Atlanta (-130)

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