New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves Prediction, 7/5/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves

Date: Sunday, July 5, 2026

Location: Truist Park in Cumberland, GA

TV: Braves.TV

Odds/Point Spread: New York (+110) Atlanta (-130)

The Atlanta Braves (50-35) will compete against the New York Mets (36-51) at Truist Park on Sunday. The moneyline on this contest has the Mets at +110 and the Braves are coming in at -130. The total is set at 8.5. The men taking the mound are Nolan McLean and Martin Perez.

The Mets have tallied 105 two-baggers as a unit and have hit 98 balls out of the park. New York owns a slugging percentage of .375 and have struck out 726 times, while being walked on 262 occasions. As a unit, the New York Mets are scoring 4.0 runs/g, which has them at 28th in the league. They have recorded 332 runs batted in in addition to 667 base knocks this season, and their average at the plate is sitting at .229. They have earned a total of 346 runs while having a team OBP of .298.

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The Mets have an earned run average of 4.12 on the campaign (13th in baseball), and their staff has struck out 793 batters. Mets pitchers have surrendered 87 long balls in addition to 395 runs in total (19th in baseball). Their pitching staff has walked 307 opposing hitters and their FIP comes in at 3.87 as a unit this season. New York has given up 687 base hits (8.0 per 9 innings) and also 355 earned runs. They have accumulated a K/BB ratio of 2.58 and the pitching staff holds a collective WHIP of 1.28.

The Mets relief pitchers have a save percentage of 60.9% and stepped onto the hill in 55 save situations. They have accumulated 14 saves so far this season and have not converted 9 of 23 save opportunities. The bullpen pitchers have inherited 114 runners so far this year with 31.6% of those runners earned a run for their team. Mets relief pitchers have entered the contest with runners on base 86 times in addition to having 95 appearances in high leverage situations. The Mets have sent 264 relief pitchers to the hill on the campaign. The relief pitchers have earned 32 holds for the season (28th in MLB).

The New York Mets have earned a total of 2,327 putouts over the course of the season, in addition to 707 assists and 56 errors. Their fielding percentage is holding at .982 which is 28th in pro baseball, and have 51 double plays. The Mets have turned 69.6% of balls hit into play into outs out of 6,981 innings on the diamond, which has them sitting 19th in pro baseball.

McLean has thrown 143 innings and is sitting with 170 strikeouts in his pro baseball career. McLean (10-6 career mark) has a FIP of 3.16 and he has faced 585 batters in the major leagues. His earned run average is 3.21 (51 ER's allowed) and he has a WHIP of 1.097. He has given up 105 hits (6.6 hits per nine innings) with 52 free passes.

The Atlanta Braves have accounted for an on-base percentage of .311 in addition to a team batting average of .246 on the campaign. They have been called out on strikes on 672 occasions (25th in the league) and have earned 709 base knocks. Atlanta has 104 HRs on the season to go along with 392 runs batted in. The Braves hold a team SLG% of .404 and they average 4.74 runs per contest (9th in baseball). They have put up 128 two-baggers, while walking 253 times and racking up 403 runs.

The Braves have a team WHIP of 1.211 in addition to having a FIP of 3.98 as a squad on the year. Their strikeout to walk ratio is 8.70 (727 strikeouts against 280 free passes). They are sitting at 3rd in the league as a pitching staff in total hits given up with 632. They have given up 91 homers and they allow 3.81 runs per 9 innings (3rd in baseball). The Atlanta pitching staff have surrendered 319 runs this season while holding an ERA of 3.49 (292 earned runs given up).

They are currently ranked 4th in the league holding a save percentage of 75.0%, and they have dispatched 264 bullpen pitchers to the mound so far this season. Their relievers have stepped onto the mound 85 times in high leverage situations in addition to 57 occasions with runners on. With 89 save situations, the Braves have earned 54 holds in addition to 8 blown saves. Atlanta has had relief pitchers take the mound in 32 save opportunities and they have earned 24 saves. Atlanta bullpen pitchers have an inherited score rate of 29.3% out of their 82 inherited base runners.

The Atlanta Braves have turned 63 double plays and own a fielding percentage of .987 (11th in pro baseball). The Braves have recorded 694 assists, 38 errors and have a total of 2,261 putouts for the year. Out of their 6,783 innings on the diamond, the Braves have a defensive efficiency of 71.9% (4th in professional baseball).

During his MLB career, Perez has surrendered 1,809 base hits and he has 1,214 K's in 1,708 innings pitched. Perez (97-98 win-loss mark in his career) has earned a 4.36 ERA while conceding 9.5 hits per 9 innings. He has surrendered a total of 828 earned runs while earning a WHIP of 1.422 and a FIP of 4.3. He has a K/BB ratio of 1.96 and he has faced 7,383 hitters thus far in his career.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take New York (+110)

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