New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction, 8/4/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians

Date: Tuesday, August 4, 2026

Location: Progressive Field in Cleveland, OH

TV: MLB.TV

Odds/Point Spread: New York (-144) Cleveland (+120)

Progressive Field is where the Cleveland Guardians (57-56) will compete against the New York Mets (47-66) on Tuesday. The line on this contest has the Mets at -144 and the Guardians are sitting at +120. The betting total comes in at 9. The pitchers who are expected to start are Sean Manaea and Joey Cantillo.

New York has a slugging % of .380 and have been called out on strikes 953 times, while taking a walk on 360 occasions. They have compiled 435 RBI's as well as 880 base knocks on the year, while their batting average is .232. The Mets have hit 139 two-baggers as a squad and have hit 131 balls out of the park. They have racked up 457 runs scored while having a team on-base percentage of .303. As a team, the New York Mets are notching 4.0 runs per contest, which is 27th in baseball.

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The Mets have an earned run average of 4.10 on the year (14th in the league), and they have rung up 1,017 batters. Mets pitchers have surrendered 124 home runs and 515 total runs (19th in baseball). They have walked 391 opposing players and their FIP sits at 4.00 as a squad for the year. New York has relinquished 906 base hits (8.1 per 9 innings) and 459 earned runs. Their K/BB ratio is 2.60 and their pitching staff has a collective WHIP of 1.29.

Mets relief pitchers have entered the contest with runners on 106 times in addition to having 115 appearances in high leverage situations. The relief pitchers have a total of 42 holds this year (27th in the league). The Mets bullpen have compiled a save rate of 59.4% and stepped onto the hill in 74 save situations. They have earned 19 saves on the campaign and have not converted 13 of 32 save chances. The relief pitchers have inherited 146 base runners so far this season with 29.5% of those runners earned a run for their team. The Mets have dispatched 345 relief pitchers to the hill this season.

The Mets have turned 69.5% of balls in play into outs out of their 9,060 innings on the diamond, which has them ranked 19th in professional baseball. The New York Mets have accumulated 3,020 putouts so far this season, in addition to 913 assists and 75 errors. Their fielding rate is holding steady at .981 which has them sitting 29th in MLB, and they have turned 67 double plays.

Manaea has taken the ball for 1,336 innings and has accounted for 1,272 strikeouts during his pro baseball career. His ERA is 4.11 (610 earned runs allowed) and he has a career WHIP of 1.212. He has surrendered 1,243 hits (8.4 hits per 9 innings) and has 377 free passes. Manaea (81-71 career record) has earned a FIP of 4.05 while he has faced 5,597 batters during his time in the majors.

The Cleveland Guardians have a team on-base percentage of .310 as well as a team batting average of .231 on the season. They have been called out on strikes on 936 occasions (15th in baseball) and are sitting with 862 base hits. Cleveland has accumulated 109 home runs over the course of the season and 428 RBIs. The Guardians hold a slugging % of .370 and they score 3.95 runs per contest (29th in baseball). They have hit 169 doubles, while taking a walk 405 times as well as scoring 446 runs.

The Guardians hold a team WHIP of 1.262 and are the owners of a FIP of 3.84 as a team on the year. They rank 10th in the league as a pitching staff in total hits given up with 897. The Cleveland pitching staff have conceded 462 runs so far this season while having a team ERA of 3.76 (418 earned runs given up). Their strikeout to walk ratio is 9.40 (1,041 strikeouts vs 367 walks). They have conceded 124 HR's and they concede 4.15 runs per 9 innings (9th in baseball).

With 134 save situations, the Guardians have 87 holds in addition to 11 blown saves. Cleveland has called on bullpen pitchers to take the mound in 45 save opportunities and they have earned 34 saves. Cleveland bullpen pitchers hold an inherited score percentage of 27.1% out of their 177 inherited base runners. Their relievers have stepped onto the hill 137 times in high leverage situations in addition to 114 occasions with base runners. They rank 4th in the league with a save percentage of 75.6%, and they have sent 383 relief pitchers onto the diamond on the campaign.

In 9,015 innings on the field, the Guardians have a defensive efficiency of 69.4% (20th in MLB). The Cleveland Guardians have gotten 75 double plays and have notched a fielding percentage of .985 (18th in professional baseball). The Guardians have racked up 882 assists, 60 errors and have accounted for 3,005 putouts so far this year.

So far in his career, Cantillo has surrendered 224 base hits while totaling 276 punch outs in 247 frames. He has allowed 104 ER's while earning a WHIP of 1.355 and having a FIP of 3.7. His strikeout to walk ratio is 2.49 and he has faced 1,056 batters so far in his pro baseball career. Cantillo (15-13 career win-loss mark) holds a 3.79 earned run average while conceding 8.2 hits per nine innings.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Cleveland (+120)

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