New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction, 7/21/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers

Date: Tuesday, July 21, 2026

Location: American Family Field in Milwaukee, WI

TV: Brewers.TV

Odds/Point Spread: New York (+120) Milwaukee (-144)

The Milwaukee Brewers (62-37) will try to beat the New York Mets (42-58) at American Family Field on Tuesday. The moneyline on this game has the Mets at +120 while the Brewers are priced at -144. The betting total comes in at 8.5. The pitchers who are expected to start are Zach Thornton and Brandon Sproat.

As a unit, the New York Mets are recording 4.1 runs per outing, which puts them at 26th in baseball. They have a total of 409 runs and have an OBP of .304. The Mets have accrued 124 two-baggers as a team and have smacked 117 balls out of the stadium. They have amassed 390 RBI's as well as 785 base knocks for the year, while their batting average sits at .234. New York has a slugging % of .382 and have struck out 824 times, while drawing a walk on 314 occasions.

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They have accumulated a K/BB ratio of 2.55 and their pitching staff holds a WHIP of 1.31. Mets pitchers have conceded 111 home runs and also 471 runs in total (20th in MLB). New York has yielded 806 base knocks (8.1 per 9 innings) and also 419 earned runs. The Mets have compiled a team earned run average of 4.23 for the season (17th in the league), and they have struck out 918 batters. Their pitching staff has walked 360 opposing batters and their FIP is 4.03 as a unit this year.

The Mets have sent 310 relievers to the mound for the season. The relievers have inherited 133 base runners for the season with 28.6% of those players ended up scoring. The relief pitchers have earned 38 holds for the season (27th in the league). Mets relief pitchers have stepped onto the hill with runners on 98 times as well as having 107 appearances in high leverage situations. They have recorded 17 saves on the year and have not converted 13 out of their 30 save chances. The Mets bullpen have recorded a save percentage of 56.7% and have come into the game in 68 save situations.

The Mets have turned 69.3% of balls hit into play into outs in their 8,025 innings, which has them sitting at 22nd in the majors. The New York Mets are sitting with 2,675 putouts this season, in addition to 812 assists and 69 errors. Their fielding percentage is holding at .981 which puts them in 29th in the majors, and have a total of 55 double plays.

Thornton has taken the mound for 17 innings and is sitting with 15 strikeouts so far in his MLB career. His earned run average is 2.63 (5 ER's allowed) and his career WHIP is 0.936. He has allowed 11 hits (5.8 hits per nine innings) with 5 free passes. Thornton (0-1 mark in his career) sits with a FIP of 2.59 and he has gone up against 67 hitters in the majors.

Milwaukee has tallied 91 HRs so far this season to go along with 476 runs batted in. They have recorded 180 two-baggers, while taking a walk 416 times and racking up 502 runs. The Milwaukee Brewers have an on-base percentage of .337 as well as a batting average of .253 on the season. The Brewers have a slugging percentage of .396 and they are earning 5.07 runs per game (5th in MLB). They have struck out on 819 instances (18th in MLB) and have 852 base hits.

The Brewers have a WHIP of 1.158 in addition to having a FIP of 3.57 as a staff for the season. They sit at 2nd in baseball as a pitching staff in total hits conceded with 714. The Milwaukee pitching staff have yielded 371 runs over the course of the season while having a team ERA of 3.45 (340 earned runs surrendered). They have earned a strikeout to walk ratio of 9.70 (960 strikeouts against 312 walks). They have allowed 98 dingers and they concede 3.77 runs per 9 innings (2nd in the league).

Milwaukee relievers have an inherited score percentage of 40.4% out of their 114 inherited runners. Their relief pitchers have stepped onto the hill 104 times in high leverage situations and also on 80 occasions with runners on. With 94 save situations, the Brewers have tallied 47 holds and also 15 blown saves. They are ranked 14th in baseball holding a save rate of 67.4%, and they have sent 304 relief pitchers to the mound for the season.

The Milwaukee Brewers have turned 73 double plays and have a fielding percentage of .988 (5th in MLB). The Brewers have accrued 769 assists, 40 errors and have accumulated 2,660 putouts on the season. Out of their 7,980 innings on the field, the Brewers hold a defensive efficiency of 71.4% (5th in the majors).

So far in his career, Sproat has given up 91 base knocks while he has totaled 104 punch outs in 102 innings. Sproat (3-6 career mark) has a 5.11 ERA while giving up 8.0 hits per 9 innings. He has given up a total of 58 ER's while earning a WHIP of 1.341 and a FIP of 5.0. His K/BB ratio is 2.26 and he has faced 436 opposing batters during his MLB career.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Milwaukee (-144)

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