New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction, 7/16/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies

Date: Thursday, July 16, 2026

Location: Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, PA

TV: NBC Sports Philadelphia

Odds/Point Spread: New York (+132) Philadelphia (-160)

The New York Mets (40-57) are headed to Citizens Bank Park on Thursday where they will compete against the Philadelphia Phillies (54-43). The moneyline on this game has the Mets at +132 while the Phillies open at -160. The over/under is 9. The expected starting pitchers will be Christian Scott and Aaron Nola.

As a team, the New York Mets are scoring 4.1 runs per outing, which has them sitting at 26th in MLB. They have earned 398 runs scored and have an on-base percentage of .303. The Mets have compiled 120 two-baggers as a team and have smacked 112 baseballs out of the park. They have compiled 379 runs batted in as well as 761 hits on the season, while their team batting average is at .234. New York has a slugging rate of .381 and have struck out 797 times, while taking a walk on 299 occasions.

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The Mets have an ERA of 4.27 on the season (18th in baseball), and the staff has rung up 885 batters. Mets pitchers have conceded 107 long balls and also 463 runs (21st in the league). Their pitching staff has walked 351 players from the other team and their FIP is 4.04 as a squad this year. New York has yielded 784 base hits (8.2 per 9 innings) and 411 earned runs. They have accrued a K/BB ratio of 2.52 and their pitching staff has earned a collective WHIP of 1.31.

The Mets relief pitchers have compiled a save rate of 55.2% and have come into the game in 64 save situations. They have tallied 16 saves on the year and have blown 13 out of their 29 save opportunities. The relief pitchers have inherited 129 runners so far this season with 29.5% of them ended up crossing the plate. Mets relief pitchers have come into the game with runners on 95 times as well as having 106 appearances in high leverage situations. The Mets have sent 301 relief pitchers to the mound on the season. The bullpen are sitting with 35 holds on the campaign (29th in the league).

The Mets have transformed 69.3% of baseballs in play into outs out of 7,791 innings on the field, which ranks them 22nd in pro baseball. The New York Mets have amassed 2,597 putouts at this point in the season, as well as 791 assists and 65 errors. Their fielding percentage is currently at .981 which has them sitting 29th in professional baseball, and they have turned 53 double plays.

Scott has pitched in 101 innings and has racked up 104 K's during his career. His ERA is 3.83 (43 ER's allowed) and he has a WHIP of 1.256. He has surrendered 89 hits (7.9 hits per nine innings) with 38 free passes. Scott (2-4 win-loss mark in his career) has earned a FIP of 3.77 while facing 430 opposing hitters in the majors.

Philadelphia has compiled 124 home runs this year as well as 409 runs batted in. They have 130 two-baggers, while getting a free base 287 times and putting up 424 runs. The Philadelphia Phillies have compiled a team on-base percentage of .303 and a team batting average of .236 so far this year. The Phillies have a team slugging % of .398 and they average 4.37 runs per contest (18th in baseball). They have struck out on 851 instances (8th in the league) and have notched a total of 770 base hits.

The Phillies have a team WHIP of 1.315 and are the owners of a FIP of 3.75 as a squad on the season. Their strikeout to walk ratio is 9.90 (949 strikeouts vs 280 bases on balls). They are currently ranked 26th in MLB as a staff in total hits allowed with 850. They have allowed 115 long balls and they yield 4.55 runs per 9 innings (16th in the league). The Philadelphia pitching staff have surrendered 434 runs for the season while holding a team ERA of 4.23 (404 earned runs surrendered).

They are ranked 3rd in MLB with a save percentage of 74.4%, and they have sent 323 bullpen pitchers onto the field for the season. Their relief pitchers have stepped onto the mound 85 times in high leverage situations and also on 73 occasions with base runners. With 80 save situations, the Phillies have tallied 39 holds in addition to 10 blown saves. Philadelphia has had bullpen pitchers step onto the mound in 39 save chances and they have tallied 29 saves. Philadelphia relievers have an inherited score percentage of 34.7% out of 101 inherited base runners.

The Philadelphia Phillies have turned 52 double plays and have earned a fielding percentage of .986 (14th in pro baseball). The Phillies have recorded 795 assists, 47 errors and have earned 2,578 putouts this year. In 7,734 innings on the field, the Phillies have a defensive efficiency of 66.9% (29th in the majors).

Nola (112-95 record in his career) has a 3.93 ERA and has conceded 8.1 hits per 9 innings. He has a K/BB ratio of 4.12 and he has faced 7,464 batters during his MLB career. He has surrendered a total of 792 ER's while earning a WHIP of 1.164 and having a FIP of 3.9. During his pro baseball career, Nola has allowed 1,630 hits while he has earned 1,978 K's in 1,812 innings pitched.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take New York (+132)

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