New York Mets vs Washington Nationals Prediction, 9/27/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: New York Mets vs Washington Nationals

Date: Sunday, September 27, 2026

Location: Nationals Park in Washington, D.C.

TV: Nationals.TV

Odds/Point Spread: New York (-122) Washington (+102)

Nationals Park is the location where the Washington Nationals (75-84) will attempt to beat the New York Mets (73-86) on Sunday. The odds on this game have New York at -122 and Washington is sitting at +102. The over/under is 9. The expected starting pitchers will be Sean Manaea and DJ Herz.

As a squad, the New York Mets are scoring 4.3 runs per game, which puts them at 21st in the league. They have 682 runs scored while holding a team OBP of .309. The Mets have recorded 205 two-baggers as a unit and have knocked 197 baseballs out of the stadium. They have accumulated 652 RBI's as well as 1,280 hits so far this season, while their team batting average sits at .238. New York has a slugging percentage of .393 and have been called out on strikes 1,332 times, while taking a walk on 516 occasions.

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Their strikeout to walk ratio is 2.63 and their pitching staff has a collective WHIP of 1.29. Mets pitchers have conceded 181 home runs and also 717 total runs (18th in baseball). New York has relinquished 1,284 base hits (8.2 per 9 innings) and also 651 earned runs. The Mets are sitting with a team ERA of 4.14 this year (16th in baseball), and the staff has rung up 1,427 hitters. They have walked 543 players from the other team and their FIP sits at 4.06 as a squad for the year.

Mets pitchers have stepped onto the hill with runners on 142 times in addition to having 158 appearances in high leverage situations. The relievers have a total of 74 holds this season (25th in baseball). The Mets relievers have a save percentage of 62.0% and have stepped onto the mound in 128 save situations. They have accumulated 31 saves for the year and have missed out on 19 of their 50 save chances. The relievers have inherited 201 runners on the campaign with 27.4% of those players crossing the plate. The Mets have dispatched 493 relievers to the mound on the campaign.

The New York Mets have earned a total of 4,250 putouts thus far, in addition to 1,227 assists and 92 errors. Their fielding percentage is currently at .983 which puts them in 24th in MLB, and have a total of 95 double plays. The Mets have turned 69.6% of balls hit into play into outs out of their 12,750 innings on the field, which has them ranked 16th in professional baseball.

Manaea has taken the mound for 1,389 innings and has tallied 1,325 strikeouts in his pro baseball career. His ERA is 4.15 (640 earned runs allowed) and he has a WHIP of 1.213. He has conceded 1,295 hits (8.4 hits per nine innings) and has had 390 walks. Manaea (85-73 win-loss record in his career) has earned a FIP of 4.08 while facing 5,823 opposing hitters in the major leagues.

Washington has accounted for 207 home runs this season to go along with 765 runs batted in. They have 277 doubles, while walking 546 times and racking up 807 runs. The Washington Nationals have recorded a team on-base percentage of .321 and a batting average of .246 for the year. The Nationals hold a slugging % of .423 and they score 5.08 runs per game (3rd in baseball). They have struck out on 1,327 occasions (14th in the league) and have recorded 1,333 hits.

The Washington pitching staff have allowed 798 runs on the season while having an ERA of 4.65 (729 earned runs surrendered). They have given up 211 home runs and they allow 5.09 runs per 9 innings (27th in baseball). The Nationals have a WHIP of 1.389 in addition to having a FIP of 4.70 as a unit so far this year. Their strikeout to walk ratio sits at 8.00 (1,254 strikeouts against 593 bases on balls). They rank 25th in the league as a pitching staff in total hits given up with 1,366.

They are currently ranked 29th in the league with a save rate of 48.8%, and they have sent 504 bullpen pitchers to the mound this season. Their bullpen pitchers have taken the field 170 times in high leverage situations and also on 170 occasions with runners on. Sitting with 166 save situations, the Nationals have tallied 78 holds and 42 blown saves. Washington has called on bullpen pitchers to take the mound in 82 save opportunities and they have walked away with 40 saves. Washington relievers hold an inherited score rate of 38.5% out of their 265 inherited runners.

The Washington Nationals have gotten 134 double plays and have a fielding percentage of .982 (29th in professional baseball). The Nationals have 1,427 assists, 104 errors and have 4,230 putouts so far this year. In 12,690 innings played, the Nationals have a efficiency on defense of 69.5% (17th in pro baseball).

In his career, Herz has conceded 81 base knocks while he has totaled 110 punch outs in 92 frames. Herz (4-10 career mark) has a 4.39 earned run average while giving up 7.9 hits per nine innings. He has allowed 45 earned runs while holding a WHIP of 1.291 and a FIP of 4.3. He has a strikeout to walk ratio of 2.89 and he has faced 401 hitters during his career.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Washington (+102)

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