New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox Prediction, 6/28/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox

Date: Sunday, June 28, 2026

Location: Fenway Park in Boston, MA

TV: NESN

Odds/Point Spread: New York (-144) Boston (+120)

The New York Yankees (48-32) are en route to Fenway Park on Sunday where they will meet the Boston Red Sox (33-46). The line on this matchup has New York at -144 while Boston is priced at +120. The total is 9. The pitchers taking the mound will be Carlos Rodon and Sonny Gray.

As a team, the New York Yankees are putting up 5.0 runs per game, which ranks them 5th in the league. They have a total of 403 runs scored and have an OBP of .329. The Yankees have tallied 125 two-baggers as a team and have hit 120 balls out of the park. They have tallied 386 runs batted in and 650 base knocks over the course of the season, while their batting average is at .244. New York has a slugging rate of .436 and have been rung up 705 times, while drawing a walk on 329 occasions.

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They have accrued a K/BB ratio of 2.86 and their pitching staff has a collective WHIP of 1.19. Yankees pitchers have allowed 71 long balls and 293 total runs (4th in the league). New York has relinquished 597 base knocks (7.6 per 9 innings) as well as 260 earned runs. The Yankees have an earned run average of 3.30 this season (1st in the league), and the staff has rung up 699 hitters. Their pitching staff has walked 244 opposing players and their FIP comes in at 3.60 as a team for the season.

The Yankees have dispatched 260 relievers to the mound for the year. The bullpen pitchers have inherited 139 base runners over the course of the season with 26.6% of those runners ended up scoring. The relief pitchers have accumulated 40 holds on the year (18th in the league). Yankees pitchers have entered the game with runners on base 89 times and also have had 94 appearances in high leverage situations. They have compiled 20 saves on the season and have blown 12 of their 32 chances to get a save. The Yankees relief pitchers have earned a save rate of 62.5% and have come into the game in 73 save situations.

The Yankees have converted 70.9% of balls in play into outs out of their 6,384 innings on the field, which ranks them 7th in baseball. The New York Yankees have amassed 2,128 putouts so far this season, as well as 708 assists and 43 errors. Their fielding percentage is currently at .985 which puts them in 19th in the majors, and they have turned 55 double plays.

Rodon has taken the ball for 1,323 innings and has racked up 1,455 K's during his pro baseball career. Rodon (97-74 win-loss mark in his career) has a FIP of 3.68 and he has faced 5,551 hitters in the majors. His earned run average is 3.73 (549 ER's allowed) and he has a career WHIP of 1.221. He has conceded 1,116 hits (7.6 hits per nine innings) and has had 499 walks.

The Red Sox have a team slugging % of .384 and they are earning 3.96 runs per game (28th in MLB). They have tallied 141 doubles, while taking a walk 231 times and putting up 313 runs. Boston has 68 home runs on the season as well as 299 runs batted in. They have been called out on strikes on 652 occasions (21st in MLB) and have earned a total of 646 base knocks. The Boston Red Sox hold an on-base percentage of .313 in addition to a team batting average of .244 so far this season.

The Red Sox have a team WHIP of 1.269 in addition to having a FIP of 3.92 as a unit over the course of the season. They rank 15th in MLB as a pitching staff in total hits allowed with 650. The Boston pitching staff have surrendered 317 runs this year while having an ERA of 3.81 (294 earned runs relinquished). Their K/BB ratio comes in at 8.60 (668 strikeouts against 232 free passes). They have yielded 85 HR's and they relinquish 4.10 runs per 9 innings (7th in baseball).

Boston bullpen pitchers hold an inherited score percentage of 31.5% out of their 92 inherited runners. Their relief pitchers have come in 67 times in high leverage situations and also on 62 occasions with runners on. With 66 save situations, the Red Sox have earned 41 holds and also 8 blown saves. They rank 13th in the league holding a save percentage of 66.7%, and they have dispatched 240 relievers onto the diamond on the campaign.

In their 6,258 innings on the diamond, the Red Sox have accumulated a defensive efficiency of 69.4% (20th in professional baseball). The Boston Red Sox have gotten 47 double plays and have a fielding percentage of .986 (15th in baseball). The Red Sox have recorded 660 assists, 38 errors and have earned 2,086 putouts over the course of the season.

Gray (134-103 win-loss record in his career) is the owner of a 3.56 earned run average while conceding 7.9 hits per 9 innings. He has a strikeout to walk ratio of 3.11 and he has faced 8,265 hitters so far in his career. He has allowed 788 ER's while earning a WHIP of 1.197 and a FIP of 3.5. In his career, Gray has surrendered 1,746 base knocks while accumulating 1,991 K's in 1,994 innings.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take New York (-144)

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