New York Yankees vs San Diego Padres Prediction, 9/5/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: New York Yankees vs San Diego Padres

Date: Saturday, September 5, 2026

Location: Petco Park in San Diego, CA

TV: Padres.TV

Odds/Point Spread: New York (-152) San Diego (+126)

The New York Yankees (80-60) are en route to Petco Park on Saturday where they will go up against the San Diego Padres (73-67). The moneyline on this contest has New York at -152 and San Diego is at +126. The over/under has been set at 9. The expected starting pitchers will be Carlos Rodon and Robbie Ray.

The Yankees have hit 201 two-baggers as a unit and have hit 192 baseballs out of the stadium. New York has a slugging % of .409 and have been called out on strikes 1,288 times, while taking a walk on 502 occasions. As a team, the New York Yankees are compiling 4.5 runs per game, which has them at 11th in MLB. They have recorded 607 runs batted in and 1,083 hits on the year, while their batting average is at .234. They are sitting with 636 runs scored while having a team on-base percentage of .311.

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The Yankees are sitting with a team earned run average of 3.24 for the season (1st in MLB), and they have struck out 1,256 hitters. Yankees pitchers have surrendered 137 long balls and 521 runs in total (1st in MLB). Their pitching staff has walked 421 opposing batters and their FIP sits at 3.65 as a team this season. New York has yielded 1,047 base knocks (7.5 per 9 innings) in addition to 451 earned runs. Their strikeout to walk ratio is 2.98 and their pitching staff has recorded a WHIP of 1.17.

Yankees pitchers have gone to the mound with runners on base 166 times in addition to having 161 appearances in high leverage situations. The relief pitchers have 79 holds this year (11th in MLB). The Yankees relief pitchers have earned a save percentage of 60.6% and have come into the game in 147 save situations. They have accumulated 40 saves so far this year and have not converted 26 of their 66 save opportunities. The relief pitchers have inherited 237 base runners for the season with 20.3% of them ended up crossing the plate. The Yankees have dispatched 465 relievers to the hill this season.

The Yankees have converted 71.0% of balls hit into play into outs in their 11,265 innings on the field, which has them ranked 8th in the majors. The New York Yankees have accounted for 3,755 putouts at this point in the season, as well as 1,220 assists and 81 errors. Their fielding percentage is at .984 which has them ranked 21st in baseball, and have accumulated 108 double plays.

Rodon (97-75 win-loss mark in his career) has earned a FIP of 3.66 and he has faced 5,625 hitters in the majors. He has conceded 1,124 hits (7.5 hits per nine innings) with 508 walks. His ERA is 3.71 (553 earned runs allowed) and he has a WHIP of 1.217. Rodon has taken the mound for 1,341 innings and is sitting with 1,472 strikeouts in his pro baseball career.

The Padres hold a team SLG% of .387 and they have an average of 4.24 runs per outing (22nd in MLB). They have notched 202 two-baggers, while getting a free base 485 times as well as scoring 594 runs. San Diego has 153 HRs on the season to go along with 572 RBIs. They have struck out on 1,139 occasions (20th in the league) and have a total of 1,096 base hits. The San Diego Padres hold an OBP of .315 in addition to a batting average of .237 on the season.

The San Diego pitching staff have relinquished 584 runs for the season and come in with a team ERA of 3.94 (542 earned runs conceded). They have allowed 155 home runs and they relinquish 4.25 runs per 9 innings (9th in baseball). The Padres have a team WHIP of 1.292 and are the owners of a FIP of 4.19 as a pitching staff for the year. Their K/BB ratio is 8.20 (1,131 strikeouts vs 475 bases on balls). They are currently ranked 12th in MLB as a pitching staff in total hits given up with 1,125.

They sit at 11th in baseball with a save percentage of 69.0%, and they have dispatched 470 bullpen pitchers to the hill on the season. Their bullpen pitchers have stepped onto the mound 156 times in high leverage situations in addition to 136 occasions with runners on. With 146 save situations, the Padres have 85 holds and 18 blown saves. San Diego has had bullpen pitchers step onto the mound in 58 save opportunities and they have recorded 40 saves. San Diego bullpen pitchers hold an inherited score rate of 31.8% of 220 inherited base runners.

In their 11,145 innings on the field, the Padres are sitting with a defensive efficiency of 70.6% (10th in baseball). The San Diego Padres have turned 112 double plays and have a fielding percentage of .988 (5th in baseball). The Padres have accrued 1,236 assists, 59 errors and have earned a total of 3,715 putouts this year.

During his career, Ray has allowed 1,270 hits while he has totaled 1,753 K's in 1,467 innings. He has conceded a total of 641 ER's while earning a WHIP of 1.291 and having a FIP of 3.9. His K/BB ratio is 2.81 and he has gone up against 6,207 batters in his pro baseball career. Ray (89-82 career record) has a 3.93 earned run average while giving up 7.8 hits per 9 innings.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take New York (-152)

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