New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction, 10/3/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays

Date: Saturday, October 3, 2026

Location: Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, FL

TV: TBS

Odds/Point Spread: New York (+113) Tampa Bay (-136)

Tropicana Field is the location where the Tampa Bay Rays (98-64) will go up against the New York Yankees (93-68) on Saturday in Game 1 of the ALDS. The odds on this game have New York at +113 while Tampa Bay is priced at -136. The over/under is 7. The expected starting pitchers will be Gerrit Cole and Drew Rasmussen.

The Yankees have accumulated 224 two-baggers as a team and have knocked 223 baseballs out of the park. New York is slugging .409 and have struck out 1,480 times, while taking a walk on 572 occasions. As a team, the New York Yankees are scoring 4.6 runs per game, which is 8th in baseball. They have tallied 706 RBI's and 1,250 base knocks for the season, and their average at the plate comes in at .235. They have accounted for 739 runs while holding a team on-base percentage of .311.

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They have a strikeout to walk ratio of 2.97 and the pitching staff has earned a collective WHIP of 1.17. Yankees pitchers have relinquished 165 home runs and 601 total runs (2nd in MLB). New York has surrendered 1,204 base hits (7.5 per 9 innings) as well as 519 earned runs. The Yankees are sitting with a team ERA of 3.24 on the year (1st in baseball), and their staff has rung up 1,450 batters. Their pitching staff has walked 488 opposing players and their FIP is 3.71 as a squad this year.

The Yankees bullpen have recorded a save percentage of 61.6% and stepped onto the hill in 162 save situations. They have compiled 45 saves on the season and have blown 28 of 73 save opportunities. The bullpen pitchers have inherited 271 runners so far this season and 22.1% of them earned a run for their team. Yankees relief pitchers have stepped onto the hill with runners on 190 times and also have had 175 appearances in high leverage situations. The Yankees have sent 532 relievers to the mound on the campaign. The relievers are sitting with 86 holds on the season (15th in MLB).

The Yankees have converted 71.1% of balls in play into outs out of 12,972 innings, which has them sitting 7th in pro baseball. The New York Yankees have a total of 4,324 putouts this season, in addition to 1,395 assists and 96 errors. Their fielding percentage sits at .983 which ranks 22nd in baseball, and have accumulated 123 double plays.

Cole has pitched in 2,081 innings and has racked up 2,382 punch outs thus far in his career. Cole (163-89 career mark) holds a FIP of 3.16 while he has faced 8,380 opposing batters in the majors. His earned run average is 3.20 (741 earned runs allowed) and his WHIP is 1.089. He has conceded 1,742 hits (7.5 hits per nine innings) with 525 walks.

The Rays hold a slugging percentage of .402 and they are earning 4.54 runs per contest (12th in MLB). They have tallied 230 doubles, while taking a walk 514 times and scoring 736 runs. Tampa Bay has knocked in 169 long balls over the course of the season as well as 700 RBIs. They have been rung up on 1,145 occasions (30th in baseball) and have a total of 1,405 base knocks. The Tampa Bay Rays have a team OBP of .326 and a team batting average of .258 for the season.

The Rays have a WHIP of 1.139 and have a FIP of 4.04 as a squad this year. They currently have a strikeout to walk ratio of 8.20 (1,322 strikeouts vs 409 free passes). They are currently ranked 4th in the league as a pitching staff in total hits given up with 1,235. They have given up 201 dingers and they relinquish 4.05 runs per 9 innings (6th in MLB). The Tampa Bay pitching staff have surrendered 650 runs for the season and come in with a team ERA of 3.70 (594 earned runs yielded).

Tampa Bay bullpen pitchers have an inherited score rate of 32.3% of 192 inherited base runners. Their relievers have come in 163 times in high leverage situations in addition to 134 occasions with runners on. Sitting with 194 save situations, the Rays have 115 holds and also 20 blown saves. They are currently ranked 4th in baseball holding a save percentage of 74.4%, and they have dispatched 522 relief pitchers to the mound so far this season.

The Tampa Bay Rays have turned 100 double plays and own a fielding percentage of .984 (21st in professional baseball). The Rays have accrued 1,279 assists, 92 errors and are sitting with 4,329 putouts on the season. In 12,987 innings on the diamond, the Rays have a defensive efficiency of 72.3% (1st in the majors).

So far in his MLB career, Rasmussen has surrendered 497 hits while accumulating 602 K's in 632 innings. Rasmussen (46-22 career record) has earned a 2.83 earned run average while giving up 7.1 hits per nine innings. He has allowed 199 ER's while earning a WHIP of 1.025 and being the owner of a FIP of 2.8. He has a strikeout to walk ratio of 3.99 and he has gone up against 2,509 hitters during his MLB career.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take New York (+113)

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