New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction, 10/5/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays

Date: Monday, October 5, 2026

Location: Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, FL

TV: TBS

Odds/Point Spread: New York (-131) Tampa Bay (+109)

Tropicana Field is the location where the Tampa Bay Rays (98-64) will compete against the New York Yankees (93-68) on Monday in Game 2 of the ALDS. Tampa leads 1-0. The line on this contest has the Yankees at -131 and the Rays are coming in at +109. The over/under has been set at 6.5. The starting pitchers will be Cam Schlittler and Freddy Peralta.

New York has a slugging % of .409 and have struck out 1,480 times, while drawing a walk on 572 occasions. They have 706 runs batted in and 1,250 hits so far this season, while their average at the plate sits at .235. The Yankees have tallied 224 doubles as a unit and have hit 223 balls out of the park. They have tallied 739 runs scored while holding a team on-base percentage of .311. As a team, the New York Yankees are knocking in 4.6 runs per game, which has them sitting at 8th in baseball.

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The Yankees are sitting with a team earned run average of 3.24 so far this year (1st in the league), and the staff has struck out 1,450 hitters. Yankees pitchers have conceded 165 long balls in addition to 601 total runs (2nd in MLB). They have walked 488 opposing hitters and their FIP is 3.71 as a squad on the year. New York has relinquished 1,204 base hits (7.5 per 9 innings) and 519 earned runs. Their K/BB ratio is 2.97 and the pitching staff holds a collective WHIP of 1.17.

Yankees bullpen pitchers have come into the game with players on base 190 times in addition to having 175 appearances in high leverage situations. The bullpen have racked up 86 holds this season (15th in MLB). The Yankees relievers have a save percentage of 61.6% and stepped onto the hill in 162 save situations. They have 45 saves for the season and have blown 28 of their 73 save chances. The bullpen pitchers have inherited 271 base runners for the year and 22.1% of those runners ended up crossing the plate. The Yankees have dispatched 532 relievers to the hill over the course of the season.

The Yankees have transformed 71.1% of balls hit into play into outs out of their 12,972 innings on the diamond, which has them ranked 7th in professional baseball. The New York Yankees have earned a total of 4,324 putouts thus far, in addition to 1,395 assists and 96 errors. Their fielding percentage is holding at .983 which has them sitting 22nd in professional baseball, and have a total of 123 double plays.

Schlittler has taken the mound for 266 innings and has earned 323 strikeouts in his MLB career. Schlittler (18-9 career mark) has earned a FIP of 2.20 while he has faced 1,065 opposing batters in the major leagues. His earned run average is 2.23 (66 ER's allowed) and his career WHIP is 1.003. He has allowed 187 hits (6.3 hits per nine innings) and has 80 free passes.

Tampa Bay has accounted for 169 HRs this season and 700 runs batted in. They have 230 doubles, while getting a free base 514 times and recording 736 runs. The Tampa Bay Rays have accumulated a team OBP of .326 in addition to a team batting average of .258 this season. The Rays hold a team slugging percentage of .402 and they average 4.54 runs per contest (12th in the league). They have been called out on strikes on 1,145 instances (30th in the league) and have earned a total of 1,405 base knocks.

The Rays have a team WHIP of 1.139 and are the owners of a FIP of 4.04 as a squad for the season. They have earned a strikeout to walk ratio of 8.20 (1,322 strikeouts vs 409 free passes). They come in at 4th in MLB as a pitching staff in total hits allowed with 1,235. They have conceded 201 HR's and they allow 4.05 runs per 9 innings (6th in the league). The Tampa Bay pitching staff have allowed 650 runs so far this season and come in with a team ERA of 3.70 (594 earned runs yielded).

Sitting with 194 save situations, the Rays have recorded 115 holds and 20 blown saves. Tampa Bay has had relievers enter the game in 78 save chances and they have recorded 58 saves. Tampa Bay relievers have an inherited score percentage of 32.3% of 192 inherited runners. Their relievers have stepped onto the hill 163 times in high leverage situations and on 134 occasions with base runners. They are ranked 4th in baseball holding a save percentage of 74.4%, and they have dispatched 522 relief pitchers onto the field for the season.

The Tampa Bay Rays have gotten 100 double plays and have a fielding percentage of .984 (21st in the majors). The Rays have accrued 1,279 assists, 92 errors and have amassed 4,329 putouts on the campaign. Out of their 12,987 innings on the diamond, the Rays have a defensive efficiency of 72.3% (1st in pro baseball).

In his MLB career, Peralta has allowed 735 base hits and he has 1,196 K's in 986 frames. He has conceded 391 earned runs while earning a WHIP of 1.126 and being the owner of a FIP of 3.5. He has a strikeout to walk ratio of 3.19 and he has faced 4,071 hitters during his career. Peralta (75-44 career mark) is the owner of a 3.57 earned run average and has surrendered 6.7 hits per nine innings.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Tampa Bay (+109)

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