Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Prediction, 10/1/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves

Date: Thursday, October 1, 2026

Location: Truist Park in Cumberland, GA

TV: NBC

Odds/Point Spread: Philadelphia (-118) Atlanta (-102)

Truist Park is where the Atlanta Braves (94-68) will attempt to defeat the Philadelphia Phillies (88-74) on Thursday in Game 3 of their NL Wild Card series. The line on this matchup has the Phillies at -118 while the Braves are priced at -102. The total is set at 7.5. The expected starting pitchers are Aaron Nola and Grant Holmes.

Philadelphia has a slugging rate of .395 and have struck out 1,318 times, while taking a walk on 529 occasions. They have accrued 691 runs batted in in addition to 1,301 base knocks this season, while their batting average sits at .240. The Phillies have recorded 246 doubles as a unit and have hit 182 baseballs out of the park. They have accumulated 713 runs and hold an OBP of .312. As a squad, the Philadelphia Phillies are notching 4.4 runs per game, which puts them at 19th in baseball.

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The Phillies have compiled a team earned run average of 4.04 this year (11th in MLB), and their staff has struck out 1,577 batters. Phillies pitchers have allowed 191 home runs in addition to 698 runs in total (11th in the league). They have walked 484 opposing hitters and their FIP is 3.79 as a team for the year. Philadelphia has conceded 1,366 base knocks (8.5 per 9 innings) as well as 646 earned runs. They have accrued a K/BB ratio of 3.26 and the pitching staff has earned a collective WHIP of 1.29.

The Phillies bullpen have accumulated a save percentage of 64.6% and stepped onto the hill in 140 save situations. They have recorded 42 saves so far this year and have missed out on 23 of their 65 chances to save the game. The relief pitchers have inherited 171 runners this season and 38.6% of those players ended up crossing the plate. Phillies bullpen pitchers have come into the game with runners on 122 times and also have had 158 appearances in high leverage situations. The Phillies have sent 531 relief pitchers to the mound on the campaign. The relief pitchers have a total of 73 holds over the course of the season (26th in baseball).

The Philadelphia Phillies have amassed 4,315 putouts on the campaign, as well as 1,337 assists and 80 errors. Their fielding percentage is currently at .986 which is 14th in pro baseball, and have accumulated 105 double plays. The Phillies have transformed 67.8% of balls hit into play into outs out of 12,945 innings on the diamond, which has them ranked 28th in pro baseball.

Nola has taken the ball for 1,890 innings and has earned 2,053 K's so far in his MLB career. His ERA is 3.91 (821 earned runs allowed) and he has a WHIP of 1.168. He has surrendered 1,699 hits (8.1 hits per nine innings) and has 508 walks. Nola (116-101 career win-loss mark) is the owner of a FIP of 3.85 while he has gone up against 7,783 batters in the majors.

Atlanta has compiled 204 home runs this season and 711 runs batted in. They have notched 251 doubles, while taking a walk 465 times and earning 742 runs. The Atlanta Braves are sitting with an on-base percentage of .309 as well as a team batting average of .246 this season. The Braves have a SLG% of .409 and they have an average of 4.58 runs per outing (9th in MLB). They have struck out on 1,310 occasions (21st in baseball) and are sitting with 1,348 base knocks.

The Braves are sitting with a team WHIP of 1.243 and have a FIP of 4.13 as a unit this year. They come in at 6th in the league as a pitching staff in total hits surrendered with 1,259. The Atlanta pitching staff have relinquished 626 runs over the course of the season while holding an ERA of 3.63 (580 earned runs surrendered). Their K/BB ratio comes in at 8.40 (1,350 strikeouts vs 529 bases on balls). They have conceded 185 dingers and they yield 3.92 runs per 9 innings (5th in the league).

Sitting with 180 save situations, the Braves have 106 holds and 20 blown saves. Atlanta has called on bullpen pitchers to step onto the hill in 69 save chances and they have walked away with 49 saves. Atlanta relief pitchers have an inherited score rate of 20.9% out of their 172 inherited runners. Their relief pitchers have stepped onto the mound 175 times in high leverage situations in addition to 119 occasions with runners on base. They are currently ranked 7th in MLB with a save rate of 71.0%, and they have dispatched 499 relievers to the hill this season.

The Atlanta Braves have turned 131 double plays and hold a fielding percentage of .989 (5th in pro baseball). The Braves have racked up 1,348 assists, 65 errors and have a total of 4,314 putouts for the year. In 12,942 innings played, the Braves are sitting with a defensive efficiency of 71.5% (5th in MLB).

Holmes (16-16 career win-loss mark) has earned a 3.66 ERA while surrendering 8.1 hits per nine innings. His K/BB ratio is 2.35 and he has gone up against 1,416 batters in his MLB career. He has allowed 136 ER's while earning a WHIP of 1.295 and having a FIP of 3.6. In his career, Holmes has given up 302 hits while he has totaled 308 punch outs in 334 innings pitched.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Philadelphia (-118)

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