Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Prediction, 9/11/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves

Date: Friday, September 11, 2026

Location: Truist Park in Cumberland, GA

TV: Braves.TV

Odds/Point Spread: Philadelphia (+106) Atlanta (-128)

The Philadelphia Phillies (82-64) are headed to Truist Park on Friday where they will try to beat the Atlanta Braves (85-61). The odds on this game have the Phillies at +106 and the Braves are at -128. The total is 9. The expected starting pitchers will be Aaron Nola and Chris Sale.

The Phillies have hit 214 doubles as a squad and have knocked 173 baseballs out of the park. Philadelphia is slugging .401 and have struck out 1,211 times, while being walked on 463 occasions. As a team, the Philadelphia Phillies are putting up 4.5 runs per game, which has them at 14th in MLB. They have amassed 638 RBI's in addition to 1,187 hits over the course of the season, while their batting average comes in at .243. They are sitting with 658 runs and hold an OBP of .312.

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The Phillies are sitting with a team ERA of 4.00 this year (11th in baseball), and their staff has struck out 1,427 hitters. Phillies pitchers have allowed 172 home runs in addition to 620 total runs (10th in the league). Their pitching staff has walked 435 opposing hitters and their FIP is 3.77 as a squad this year. Philadelphia has yielded 1,217 base knocks (8.5 per 9 innings) and 576 earned runs. Their strikeout to walk ratio is 3.28 and their pitching staff holds a collective WHIP of 1.27.

The Phillies have dispatched 478 relievers to the mound so far this year. The relief pitchers have inherited 146 base runners on the season and 34.9% of them crossing home plate. The relief pitchers have tallied 66 holds so far this year (27th in baseball). Phillies relief pitchers have entered the game with opponents on base 107 times in addition to having 141 appearances in high leverage situations. They have earned 39 saves on the campaign and have not converted 19 of their 58 save chances. The Phillies relief pitchers have earned a save rate of 67.2% and have stepped onto the mound in 126 save situations.

The Phillies have transformed 68.1% of balls in play into outs out of their 11,670 innings on the field, which ranks them 28th in the majors. The Philadelphia Phillies are sitting with 3,890 putouts at this point in the season, as well as 1,204 assists and 73 errors. Their fielding percentage is at .986 which has them sitting 14th in pro baseball, and they have turned 88 double plays.

Nola has pitched in 1,870 innings and has accounted for 2,038 strikeouts in his career. Nola (115-99 mark in his career) has a FIP of 3.85 and he has faced 7,702 hitters during his time in the major leagues. His ERA is 3.91 (812 ER's allowed) and his WHIP is 1.167. He has conceded 1,682 hits (8.1 hits per 9 innings) and has 501 free passes.

The Braves have a SLG% of .409 and they average 4.58 runs per contest (9th in MLB). They have hit 232 two-baggers, while taking a walk 419 times as well as scoring 668 runs. Atlanta has recorded 183 home runs for the year to go along with 641 RBIs. They have struck out on 1,185 occasions (20th in MLB) and have earned 1,210 base hits. The Atlanta Braves have a team OBP of .309 in addition to a team batting average of .246 for the year.

The Atlanta pitching staff have yielded 560 runs so far this season while having an ERA of 3.59 (517 earned runs given up). They have allowed 162 long balls and they surrender 3.89 runs per 9 innings (3rd in MLB). The Braves hold a team WHIP of 1.247 in addition to having a FIP of 4.08 as a squad this year. Their strikeout to walk ratio comes in at 8.60 (1,234 strikeouts against 489 walks). They come in at 6th in MLB as a staff in total hits relinquished with 1,126.

They are currently ranked 9th in the league with a save percentage of 70.3%, and they have dispatched 455 relievers to the mound this season. Their bullpen pitchers have come in 164 times in high leverage situations and on 108 occasions with base runners. Sitting with 169 save situations, the Braves have compiled 100 holds and also 19 blown saves. Atlanta has had bullpen pitchers enter the contest in 64 save opportunities and they have come away with 45 saves. Atlanta relievers have an inherited score rate of 22.2% out of their 158 inherited runners.

In their 11,655 innings on the field, the Braves have a defensive efficiency of 71.3% (7th in the majors). The Atlanta Braves have turned 117 double plays and own a fielding percentage of .988 (8th in the majors). The Braves have recorded 1,196 assists, 64 errors and have a total of 3,885 putouts during this campaign.

Sale (159-97 career win-loss mark) has a 2.95 earned run average and has conceded 7.3 hits per 9 innings. He has a strikeout to walk ratio of 5.35 and he has faced 8,990 opposing batters in his MLB career. He has surrendered a total of 732 earned runs while holding a WHIP of 1.043 and being the owner of a FIP of 2.9. So far in his career, Sale has allowed 1,814 base hits while he has totaled 2,763 K's in 2,234 innings.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Philadelphia (+106)

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