Philadelphia Phillies vs Boston Red Sox Prediction, 5/12/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Philadelphia Phillies vs Boston Red Sox

Date: Tuesday, May 12, 2026

Location: Fenway Park in Boston, MA

TV: NESN

Odds/Point Spread: Philadelphia (+120) Boston (-144)

The Boston Red Sox (17-23) welcome the Philadelphia Phillies (19-22) at Fenway Park on Tuesday. The odds on this game have Philadelphia at +120 and Boston is coming in at -144. The over/under is 8.5. The starting pitchers are Zack Wheeler and Brayan Bello.

The Phillies have hit 60 two-baggers as a unit and have knocked 49 baseballs out of the stadium. Philadelphia is slugging .396 and have struck out 325 times, while drawing a walk on 122 occasions. As a team, the Philadelphia Phillies are earning 4.2 runs per contest, which is 21st in MLB. They have compiled 167 runs batted in and 331 base knocks so far this season, while their average at the plate is sitting at .237. They have 170 runs and have an OBP of .303.

Get all of our MLB Picks

The Phillies have compiled a team earned run average of 4.57 on the season (25th in baseball), and their staff has rung up 394 batters. Phillies pitchers have allowed 41 home runs in addition to 202 total runs (25th in MLB). They have walked 126 players from the other team and their FIP is 3.59 as a unit this season. Philadelphia has surrendered 392 hits (9.6 per 9 innings) and 186 earned runs. Their strikeout to walk ratio sits at 3.13 and the pitching staff has earned a collective WHIP of 1.41.

The Phillies have sent 146 relievers to the hill on the year. The relief pitchers have inherited 54 runners this year and 31.5% of those runners earned a run for their team. The bullpen have earned 13 holds this year (28th in baseball). Phillies pitchers have gone to the mound with runners on 44 times in addition to having 35 appearances in high leverage situations. They have recorded 8 saves on the campaign and have missed out on 4 out of their 12 chances to save the game. The Phillies relief pitchers have recorded a save rate of 66.7% and have stepped onto the mound in 25 save situations.

The Phillies have transformed 64.9% of balls hit into play into outs out of their 3,297 innings, which has them sitting at 30th in MLB. The Philadelphia Phillies have a tally of 1,099 putouts at this point in the season, in addition to 361 assists and 19 errors. Their fielding percentage is currently at .987 which has them ranked 12th in MLB, and have a total of 22 double plays.

Wheeler has taken the mound for 1,745 frames and has accounted for 1,838 K's thus far in his career. Wheeler (114-75 record in his career) is the owner of a FIP of 3.23 while he has faced 7,154 hitters in the major leagues. His ERA is 3.28 (636 earned runs allowed) and he has a career WHIP of 1.136. He has surrendered 1,486 base knocks (7.7 hits per 9 innings) and has 496 free passes.

The Boston Red Sox have tallied a team OBP of .314 in addition to a team batting average of .235 so far this year. They have struck out on 338 occasions (15th in baseball) and have recorded 314 base knocks. Boston has tallied 29 HRs this season as well as 149 RBIs. The Red Sox hold a slugging percentage of .353 and they average 3.90 runs per game (27th in MLB). They have put up 64 doubles, while walking 132 times and putting up 156 runs.

The Red Sox have a WHIP of 1.294 with a FIP of 4.31 as a staff for the season. They have earned a strikeout to walk ratio of 8.10 (318 strikeouts vs 132 bases on balls). They come in at 17th in baseball as a pitching staff in total hits given up with 325. They have given up 47 home runs and they concede 4.28 runs per 9 innings (12th in MLB). The Boston pitching staff have allowed 168 runs so far this season while having an ERA of 4.00 (157 earned runs yielded).

Sitting with 31 save situations, the Red Sox have amassed 19 holds in addition to 4 blown saves. Boston has called on bullpen pitchers to enter the game in 12 save chances and they have earned 8 saves. Boston bullpen pitchers hold an inherited score percentage of 32.1% out of 53 inherited base runners. Their relief pitchers have stepped onto the hill 32 times in high leverage situations in addition to 36 occasions with base runners. They sit at 8th in the league holding a save rate of 66.7%, and they have dispatched 123 relievers to the hill on the year.

The Boston Red Sox have turned 32 double plays and own a fielding percentage of .987 (14th in professional baseball). The Red Sox have recorded 366 assists, 19 errors and have earned 1,060 putouts on the campaign. Out of their 3,180 innings on the diamond, the Red Sox hold a efficiency on defense of 70.4% (14th in professional baseball).

Bello (41-40 win-loss mark in his career) has earned a 4.29 earned run average and has allowed 9.2 hits per 9 innings. His K/BB ratio is 2.31 and he has gone up against 2,496 batters during his MLB career. He has given up a total of 274 earned runs while earning a WHIP of 1.394 and being the owner of a FIP of 4.2. In his career, Bello has conceded 591 base knocks while he has earned 488 punch outs in 575 innings.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Philadelphia (+120)

Get $60 worth of FREE premium member picks. No Obligation. No Salesman. No Credit Card. Fast Sign up with Instant Access Click Here

Get MLB picks on every single game, or if you want our very best bets by the experts, sign up for your free $60 account with a guarantee.