Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction, 7/7/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds

Date: Tuesday, July 7, 2026

Location: Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, OH

TV: Reds.TV

Odds/Point Spread: Philadelphia (-128) Cincinnati (+106)

Great American Ball Park is where the Cincinnati Reds (41-48) will attempt to defeat the Philadelphia Phillies (50-40) on Tuesday. The moneyline on this game has Philadelphia at -128 while Cincinnati is at +106. The betting total comes in at 8.5. The men taking the mound will be Zack Wheeler and Andrew Abbott.

As a unit, the Philadelphia Phillies are notching 4.5 runs per game, which ranks them 17th in baseball. They have 402 runs while holding a team OBP of .303. The Phillies have hit 121 two-baggers as a squad and have knocked 120 balls out of the park. They have 388 RBI's as well as 719 hits on the year, while their average at the plate comes in at .237. Philadelphia has a slugging rate of .404 and have struck out 787 times, while drawing a walk on 261 occasions.

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The Phillies hold a team ERA of 4.12 this season (13th in the league), and the staff has struck out 872 hitters. Phillies pitchers have surrendered 101 home runs in addition to 395 runs in total (14th in the league). They have walked 254 opposing hitters and their FIP is 3.66 as a squad on the year. Philadelphia has given up 789 base hits (8.9 per 9 innings) and 366 earned runs. Their K/BB ratio is 3.43 and the pitching staff holds a WHIP of 1.31.

The Phillies have sent 300 relief pitchers to the hill over the course of the season. The relievers have inherited 94 base runners so far this season with 36.2% of those players crossing the plate. The relief pitchers have earned 35 holds on the campaign (27th in MLB). Phillies pitchers have entered the contest with players on base 70 times in addition to having 80 appearances in high leverage situations. They have compiled 26 saves over the course of the season and have blown 10 of their 36 save opportunities. The Phillies relievers have a save percentage of 72.2% and stepped onto the hill in 73 save situations.

The Phillies have transformed 66.9% of balls in play into outs out of 7,194 innings on the field, which has them ranked 29th in baseball. The Philadelphia Phillies have a tally of 2,398 putouts this season, in addition to 746 assists and 44 errors. Their fielding percentage is holding at .986 which has them sitting 14th in baseball, and they have turned 47 double plays.

Wheeler has pitched in 1,808 innings and is sitting with 1,904 strikeouts during his pro baseball career. His earned run average is 3.24 (651 ER's allowed) and his WHIP is 1.128. He has conceded 1,530 base knocks (7.6 hits per 9 innings) and has had 510 free passes. Wheeler (121-76 career mark) has earned a FIP of 3.19 while he has faced 7,394 opposing batters during his time in the majors.

The Reds hold a team SLG% of .388 and they are recording 4.18 runs per game (21st in MLB). They have recorded 142 two-baggers, while getting a free base 332 times as well as notching 372 runs. Cincinnati has compiled 107 long balls for the season as well as 353 runs batted in. They have been called out on strikes on 834 instances (3rd in the league) and have tallied 679 hits. The Cincinnati Reds have an on-base percentage of .309 in addition to a team batting average of .228 on the season.

The Cincinnati pitching staff have given up 432 runs on the campaign while having a team ERA of 4.57 (402 earned runs yielded). They have allowed 121 HR's and they relinquish 4.91 runs per 9 innings (21st in baseball). The Reds are sitting with a team WHIP of 1.456 in addition to having a FIP of 4.98 as a unit this year. Their strikeout to walk ratio is 8.10 (715 strikeouts vs 402 bases on balls). They are sitting at 22nd in MLB as a pitching staff in total hits surrendered with 751.

They rank 25th in the league with a save percentage of 55.3%, and they have dispatched 319 bullpen pitchers to the mound on the year. Their bullpen pitchers have taken the field 111 times in high leverage situations and also on 103 occasions with base runners. Sitting with 90 save situations, the Reds have earned 51 holds and also 17 blown saves. Cincinnati has had bullpen pitchers take the mound in 38 save chances and they have recorded 21 saves. Cincinnati relievers hold an inherited score percentage of 24.6% of 142 inherited base runners.

The Cincinnati Reds have gotten 65 double plays and own a fielding percentage of .984 (18th in baseball). The Reds have accrued 735 assists, 49 errors and have 2,376 putouts during this campaign. In 7,128 innings played, the Reds hold a defensive efficiency of 70.3% (12th in pro baseball).

Abbott (33-27 career record) has earned a 3.51 earned run average and has conceded 8.3 hits per nine innings. He has a strikeout to walk ratio of 2.48 and he has gone up against 2,144 opposing hitters thus far in his career. He has surrendered a total of 198 earned runs while holding a WHIP of 1.281 and being the owner of a FIP of 3.5. During his pro baseball career, Abbott has surrendered 467 base hits while he has totaled 456 strikeouts in 508 innings pitched.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Cincinnati (+106)

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