Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction, 7/8/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds

Date: Wednesday, July 8, 2026

Location: Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, OH

TV: Reds.TV

Odds/Point Spread: Philadelphia (-196) Cincinnati (+162)

The Philadelphia Phillies (50-41) are on their way to Great American Ball Park on Wednesday where they will meet the Cincinnati Reds (41-48). The odds on this game have Philadelphia at -196 and Cincinnati is coming in at +162. The over/under is 8.5. The men taking the mound are Jesus Luzardo and Chase Burns.

As a team, the Philadelphia Phillies are recording 4.4 runs per game, which ranks them 17th in baseball. They have a total of 403 runs scored while having a team OBP of .304. The Phillies have tallied 123 doubles as a team and have knocked 120 baseballs out of the park. They have compiled 389 runs batted in as well as 729 base knocks over the course of the season, and their average at the plate comes in at .238. Philadelphia has a slugging percentage of .404 and have been called out on strikes 800 times, while drawing a walk on 268 occasions.

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The Phillies hold a team ERA of 4.25 this year (16th in MLB), and their staff has rung up 877 batters. Phillies pitchers have relinquished 105 long balls and also 410 runs (18th in the league). Their pitching staff has walked 259 opposing hitters and their FIP sits at 3.73 as a squad for the season. Philadelphia has conceded 811 base hits (9.0 per 9 innings) in addition to 381 earned runs. Their strikeout to walk ratio is 3.39 and the pitching staff has a team WHIP of 1.33.

Phillies pitchers have stepped onto the hill with runners on 71 times in addition to having 80 appearances in high leverage situations. The relief pitchers have earned 35 holds this season (27th in baseball). The Phillies relief pitchers have a save percentage of 72.2% and stepped onto the hill in 73 save situations. They have accumulated 26 saves over the course of the season and have blown 10 of 36 chances to save the game. The bullpen pitchers have inherited 96 base runners on the season with 35.4% of them crossing the plate. The Phillies have sent 305 relief pitchers to the hill this year.

The Philadelphia Phillies have a tally of 2,422 putouts for the season, as well as 753 assists and 45 errors. Their fielding rate is holding at .986 which is 14th in professional baseball, and have accumulated 48 double plays. The Phillies have turned 66.6% of balls hit into play into outs in their 7,266 innings on the diamond, ranking them 29th in MLB.

Luzardo has thrown 798 innings and is sitting with 900 K's in his career. His earned run average is 4.14 (367 ER's allowed) and he has a WHIP of 1.248. He has surrendered 726 base hits (8.2 hits per nine innings) and has had 270 free passes. Luzardo (48-45 career win-loss record) is the owner of a FIP of 4.08 while he has faced 3,341 opposing batters in the majors.

The Cincinnati Reds have accumulated a team OBP of .309 as well as a team batting average of .228 so far this season. They have struck out on 834 occasions (3rd in the league) and have tallied 679 hits. Cincinnati has recorded 107 long balls on the campaign to go along with 353 RBIs. The Reds have a slugging percentage of .388 and they average 4.18 runs per outing (22nd in MLB). They have 142 doubles, while taking a walk 332 times and earning 372 runs.

The Reds have a team WHIP of 1.456 with a FIP of 4.98 as a pitching staff this season. They have earned a K/BB ratio of 8.10 (715 strikeouts against 402 walks). They have a ranking of 21st in baseball as a staff in total hits conceded with 751. They have surrendered 121 home runs and they relinquish 4.91 runs per 9 innings (22nd in the league). The Cincinnati pitching staff have surrendered 432 runs so far this year while holding an ERA of 4.57 (402 earned runs yielded).

They are currently ranked 25th in baseball holding a save rate of 55.3%, and they have sent 319 bullpen pitchers to the mound on the season. Their relief pitchers have taken the field 111 times in high leverage situations and also on 103 occasions with runners on. Sitting with 90 save situations, the Reds have 51 holds and also 17 blown saves. Cincinnati has had relief pitchers step onto the hill in 38 save chances and they have earned 21 saves. Cincinnati bullpen pitchers have an inherited score rate of 24.6% out of their 142 inherited runners.

The Cincinnati Reds have gotten 65 double plays and have a fielding percentage of .984 (18th in the majors). The Reds have recorded 735 assists, 49 errors and have a total of 2,376 putouts on the campaign. In 7,128 innings played, the Reds have earned a efficiency on defense of 70.3% (12th in the majors).

So far in his MLB career, Burns has conceded 115 base hits while he has accumulated 183 K's in 140 innings pitched. Burns (10-4 career win-loss mark) holds a 3.08 earned run average and has given up 7.4 hits per nine innings. He has allowed 48 ER's while earning a WHIP of 1.155 and a FIP of 3.0. He has a strikeout to walk ratio of 3.89 and he has gone up against 578 batters so far in his MLB career.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Philadelphia (-196)

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