Philadelphia Phillies vs Kansas City Royals Prediction, 7/4/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Philadelphia Phillies vs Kansas City Royals

Date: Saturday, July 4, 2026

Location: Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, MO

TV: MLB.TV

Odds/Point Spread: Philadelphia (-196) Kansas City (+162)

Kauffman Stadium is the site where the Kansas City Royals (35-53) will take on the Philadelphia Phillies (49-39) on Saturday. The line on this contest has the Phillies at -196 while the Royals are priced at +162. The total comes in at 8. The starting pitchers will be Jesus Luzardo and Michael Wacha.

The Phillies have tallied 118 two-baggers as a squad and have hit 117 baseballs out of the park. Philadelphia has a slugging percentage of .403 and have struck out 772 times, while being walked on 256 occasions. As a unit, the Philadelphia Phillies are earning 4.5 runs per contest, which puts them at 16th in the league. They have recorded 381 RBI's and 702 base knocks so far this season, while their average at the plate is sitting at .237. They have earned 394 runs while holding a team on-base percentage of .303.

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The Phillies have an ERA of 4.14 on the year (14th in baseball), and they have rung up 849 hitters. Phillies pitchers have given up 101 home runs and also 389 runs (16th in baseball). Their pitching staff has walked 252 batters and their FIP is 3.72 as a team this season. Philadelphia has given up 776 base hits (8.9 per 9 innings) and also 360 earned runs. They have accrued a K/BB ratio of 3.37 and the pitching staff has a collective WHIP of 1.31.

Phillies bullpen pitchers have entered the contest with opponents on base 69 times and also have had 80 appearances in high leverage situations. The relief pitchers have accumulated 35 holds for the year (27th in baseball). The Phillies relief pitchers have recorded a save percentage of 72.2% and have entered the game in 73 save situations. They have accumulated 26 saves so far this season and have missed out on 10 of their 36 chances to get a save. The relief pitchers have inherited 92 runners over the course of the season with 34.8% of those runners crossing the plate. The Phillies have dispatched 295 relievers to the mound over the course of the season.

The Phillies have turned 66.9% of balls hit into play into outs out of 7,041 innings, which ranks them 29th in the majors. The Philadelphia Phillies have a total of 2,347 putouts for the season, in addition to 734 assists and 44 errors. Their fielding percentage is currently at .986 which puts them in 16th in the majors, and have accumulated 47 double plays.

Luzardo (47-45 win-loss mark in his career) holds a FIP of 4.10 while he has faced 3,318 opposing batters in the major leagues. He has given up 722 hits (8.2 hits per nine innings) and has 270 free passes. His ERA is 4.16 (366 ER's allowed) and his career WHIP is 1.252. Luzardo has thrown 792 innings and has earned 891 K's during his pro baseball career.

The Kansas City Royals hold an on-base percentage of .313 in addition to a batting average of .242 so far this season. They have been called out on strikes on 701 instances (21st in the league) and have a total of 714 hits. Kansas City has a total of 87 HRs so far this season to go along with 345 runs batted in. The Royals hold a team slugging percentage of .390 and they score 4.12 runs per contest (23rd in MLB). They have recorded 153 two-baggers, while walking 285 times and racking up 363 runs.

The Royals have a team WHIP of 1.438 with a FIP of 4.69 as a staff for the year. Their strikeout to walk ratio is 7.80 (671 strikeouts vs 336 walks). They come in at 27th in baseball as a staff in total hits given up with 780. They have conceded 113 HR's and they relinquish 5.17 runs per 9 innings (27th in MLB). The Kansas City pitching staff have given up 446 runs on the season while having a team ERA of 4.87 (420 earned runs conceded).

Kansas City relievers hold an inherited score percentage of 34.5% out of 87 inherited base runners. Their relief pitchers have taken the field 89 times in high leverage situations and also on 61 occasions with runners on. Sitting with 73 save situations, the Royals have earned 35 holds in addition to 16 blown saves. They sit at 21st in MLB with a save percentage of 57.9%, and they have dispatched 284 relievers to the mound on the season.

In 6,990 innings on the diamond, the Royals are sitting with a defensive efficiency of 69.0% (25th in the majors). The Kansas City Royals have gotten 77 double plays and have earned a fielding percentage of .988 (8th in professional baseball). The Royals have 783 assists, 38 errors and have notched a total of 2,330 putouts on the campaign.

During his pro baseball career, Wacha has surrendered 1,665 base knocks and he has 1,500 K's in 1,735 innings. He has surrendered a total of 743 earned runs while earning a WHIP of 1.267 and a FIP of 3.8. His K/BB ratio is 2.81 and he has gone up against 7,284 batters thus far in his career. Wacha (116-80 career win-loss record) has a 3.85 ERA and has allowed 8.6 hits per 9 innings.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Kansas City (+162)

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