Philadelphia Phillies vs Kansas City Royals Prediction, 7/5/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Philadelphia Phillies vs Kansas City Royals

Date: Sunday, July 5, 2026

Location: Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, MO

TV: MLB.TV

Odds/Point Spread: Philadelphia (-160) Kansas City (+132)

The Kansas City Royals (35-53) will take on the Philadelphia Phillies (49-39) at Kauffman Stadium on Sunday. The line on this matchup has the Phillies at -160 while the Royals are priced at +132. The betting total is set at 8.5. The pitchers taking the mound will be Aaron Nola and Luinder Avila.

The Phillies have hit 118 doubles as a team and have hit 117 balls out of the stadium. Philadelphia has a slugging rate of .403 and have been called out on strikes 772 times, while being walked on 256 occasions. As a squad, the Philadelphia Phillies are putting up 4.5 runs per game, which ranks them 16th in MLB. They have recorded 381 RBI's as well as 702 base knocks this year, while their average at the plate is .237. They have notched a total of 394 runs while holding a team on-base percentage of .303.

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The Phillies have an ERA of 4.14 so far this year (14th in the league), and they have struck out 849 batters. Phillies pitchers have yielded 101 home runs in addition to 389 runs in total (16th in baseball). They have walked 252 batters and their FIP is 3.72 as a team this season. Philadelphia has allowed 776 base hits (8.9 per 9 innings) and 360 earned runs. They have a K/BB ratio of 3.37 and their pitching staff has a team WHIP of 1.31.

The Phillies relievers have a save percentage of 72.2% and have come into the game in 73 save situations. They have accumulated 26 saves over the course of the season and have missed out on 10 of 36 chances to save the game. The bullpen pitchers have inherited 92 runners over the course of the season and 34.8% of those players crossing the plate. Phillies bullpen pitchers have come into the game with runners on 69 times in addition to having 80 appearances in high leverage situations. The Phillies have sent 295 relief pitchers to the mound over the course of the season. The bullpen are sitting with 35 holds for the season (27th in the league).

The Philadelphia Phillies are sitting with 2,347 putouts this season, in addition to 734 assists and 44 errors. Their fielding percentage sits at .986 which puts them in 16th in pro baseball, and have 47 double plays. The Phillies have converted 66.9% of balls hit into play into outs out of 7,041 innings on the field, which has them ranked 29th in pro baseball.

Nola (112-94 win-loss mark in his career) has a FIP of 3.88 while he has gone up against 7,416 hitters in the major leagues. He has given up 1,620 hits (8.1 hits per 9 innings) and has had 478 walks. His earned run average is 3.93 (787 earned runs allowed) and his career WHIP is 1.165. Nola has taken the ball for 1,800 innings and has accumulated 1,963 punch outs thus far in his career.

The Kansas City Royals have accounted for an on-base percentage of .313 and a batting average of .242 on the campaign. They have struck out on 701 occasions (21st in the league) and have earned 714 base knocks. Kansas City is sitting with 87 home runs for the season to go along with 345 RBIs. The Royals have a team SLG% of .390 and they average 4.12 runs per contest (23rd in the league). They have tallied 153 two-baggers, while walking 285 times as well as putting up 363 runs.

The Royals are sitting with a team WHIP of 1.438 and have a FIP of 4.69 as a staff on the season. They rank 27th in baseball as a pitching staff in total hits conceded with 780. The Kansas City pitching staff have surrendered 446 runs for the year while holding a team ERA of 4.87 (420 earned runs surrendered). They currently have a K/BB ratio of 7.80 (671 strikeouts against 336 walks). They have conceded 113 home runs and they allow 5.17 runs per 9 innings (27th in MLB).

With 73 save situations, the Royals have 35 holds in addition to 16 blown saves. Kansas City has had bullpen pitchers step onto the mound in 38 save opportunities and they have earned 22 saves. Kansas City relief pitchers hold an inherited score percentage of 34.5% out of 87 inherited base runners. Their bullpen pitchers have come in 89 times in high leverage situations and also on 61 occasions with base runners. They sit at 21st in the league holding a save percentage of 57.9%, and they have sent 284 relievers onto the diamond on the year.

The Kansas City Royals have turned 77 double plays and have accounted for a fielding rate of .988 (8th in pro baseball). The Royals have racked up 783 assists, 38 errors and have earned 2,330 putouts for the year. In their 6,990 innings played, the Royals have a efficiency on defense of 69.0% (25th in professional baseball).

So far in his MLB career, Avila has surrendered 55 hits while he has earned 59 strikeouts in 60 innings. He has given up a total of 30 earned runs while earning a WHIP of 1.512 and a FIP of 4.4. He has a strikeout to walk ratio of 1.64 and he has gone up against 262 opposing hitters during his pro baseball career. Avila (4-4 career win-loss mark) has a 4.49 earned run average while allowing 8.2 hits per nine innings.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Philadelphia (-160)

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