Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Prediction, 5/1/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins

Date: Friday, May 1, 2026

Location: LoanDepot Park in Miami, FL

TV: MLB.TV

Odds/Point Spread: Philadelphia (-144) Miami (+120)

The Philadelphia Phillies (10-19) are on their way to LoanDepot Park on Friday where they will take on the Miami Marlins (15-16). The moneyline on this game has the Phillies at -144 and the Marlins are priced at +120. The betting total comes in at 8.5. The pitchers who are expected to start are Andrew Painter and Eury Perez.

Philadelphia owns a slugging percentage of .364 and have been called out on strikes 237 times, while being walked on 93 occasions. They have recorded 107 RBI's as well as 219 base knocks so far this year, while their average at the plate is .223. The Phillies have tallied 39 doubles as a team and have smacked 30 balls out of the park. They have accumulated 109 runs while holding a team OBP of .298. As a squad, the Philadelphia Phillies are scoring 3.8 runs per contest, which puts them at 28th in baseball.

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The Phillies hold a team earned run average of 4.95 this season (28th in the league), and their staff has rung up 269 hitters. Phillies pitchers have yielded 31 home runs in addition to 156 runs in total (27th in MLB). They have walked 90 players from the other team and their FIP sits at 3.77 as a team on the season. Philadelphia has conceded 288 base hits (10.1 per 9 innings) and 141 earned runs. They have earned a strikeout to walk ratio of 2.99 and the pitching staff has a collective WHIP of 1.48.

The Phillies have dispatched 105 relievers to the mound this season. The relievers have inherited 38 runners on the campaign and 34.2% of them ended up crossing the plate. The relievers have a total of 10 holds for the year (28th in baseball). Phillies bullpen pitchers have entered the game with runners on base 30 times as well as having 21 appearances in high leverage situations. They have 5 saves so far this year and have blown 2 of their 7 chances to get a save. The Phillies bullpen have a save rate of 71.4% and have entered the game in 17 save situations.

The Phillies have turned 63.8% of baseballs in play into outs in their 2,307 innings on the diamond, which has them sitting at 30th in baseball. The Philadelphia Phillies have amassed 769 putouts so far this season, in addition to 262 assists and 18 errors. Their fielding percentage sits at .983 which is 26th in the majors, and have accumulated 17 double plays.

Painter has taken the mound for 24 innings and is sitting with 21 strikeouts during his MLB career. Painter (1-2 record in his career) holds a FIP of 5.17 while facing 108 opposing hitters in the majors. His ERA is 5.25 (14 ER's allowed) and he has a WHIP of 1.500. He has surrendered 30 hits (11.3 hits per nine innings) and has had 6 free passes.

The Marlins have a SLG% of .381 and they score 4.35 runs per contest (17th in baseball). They have hit 49 doubles, while getting a free base 112 times as well as putting up 135 runs. Miami has 23 long balls over the course of the season to go along with 129 RBIs. They have struck out on 251 occasions (18th in the league) and have notched a total of 257 base hits. The Miami Marlins have an on-base percentage of .331 and a batting average of .250 over the course of the season.

The Marlins hold a team WHIP of 1.276 with a FIP of 3.96 as a squad this season. They are sitting at 7th in the league as a staff in total hits given up with 228. The Miami pitching staff have yielded 134 runs on the season while having an ERA of 3.92 (118 earned runs relinquished). They currently have a strikeout to walk ratio of 8.60 (259 strikeouts against 118 free passes). They have allowed 27 dingers and they give up 4.45 runs per 9 innings (15th in baseball).

They are currently ranked 16th in baseball with a save rate of 62.5%, and they have sent 95 relievers onto the field this season. Their relievers have stepped onto the hill 31 times in high leverage situations and also on 23 occasions with runners on. With 37 save situations, the Marlins have earned 20 holds and 6 blown saves. Miami has had bullpen pitchers enter the contest in 16 save chances and they have earned 10 saves. Miami bullpen pitchers have an inherited score percentage of 31.4% of 35 inherited base runners.

In their 2,445 innings on the field, the Marlins hold a defensive efficiency of 71.1% (8th in the majors). The Miami Marlins have gotten 17 double plays and own a fielding percentage of .980 (28th in MLB). The Marlins have recorded 244 assists, 22 errors and have 815 putouts during this campaign.

In his pro baseball career, Perez has conceded 170 hits while he has tallied 246 K's in 217 innings pitched. Perez (14-14 career record) has a 3.85 ERA while allowing 7.0 hits per nine innings. He has allowed a total of 93 ER's while earning a WHIP of 1.137 and having a FIP of 3.8. He has a K/BB ratio of 3.19 and he has faced 895 hitters during his pro baseball career.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Miami (+120)

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