Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Prediction, 5/3/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins

Date: Sunday, May 3, 2026

Location: LoanDepot Park in Miami, FL

TV: MLB.TV

Odds/Point Spread: Philadelphia (-132) Miami (+110)

The Miami Marlins (15-16) will try to defeat the Philadelphia Phillies (12-19) at LoanDepot Park on Sunday. The moneyline on this contest has the Phillies at -132 while the Marlins are priced at +110. The betting total comes in at 8.5. The pitchers who are expected to start are Aaron Nola and Chris Paddack.

Philadelphia has a slugging percentage of .376 and have been called out on strikes 249 times, while being walked on 101 occasions. They have compiled 116 runs batted in in addition to 238 hits so far this year, and their average at the plate is at .227. The Phillies have hit 43 doubles as a team and have knocked 33 balls out of the stadium. They have accounted for 118 runs and have an on-base percentage of .302. As a squad, the Philadelphia Phillies are compiling 3.8 runs per contest, which is 28th in MLB.

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They have earned a strikeout to walk ratio of 2.97 and the pitching staff has a collective WHIP of 1.48. Phillies pitchers have relinquished 31 home runs in addition to 163 runs in total (27th in the league). Philadelphia has conceded 309 hits (10.1 per 9 innings) and also 148 earned runs. The Phillies hold a team earned run average of 4.84 so far this season (27th in the league), and the staff has struck out 291 batters. Their pitching staff has walked 98 opposing players and their FIP sits at 3.68 as a team over the course of the season.

The Phillies relief pitchers have recorded a save rate of 55.6% and have come into the game in 19 save situations. They have accumulated 5 saves for the year and have blown 4 out of their 9 save opportunities. The relievers have inherited 45 runners for the season with 33.3% of those runners crossing the plate. Phillies relief pitchers have stepped onto the hill with runners on 36 times and also have had 26 appearances in high leverage situations. The Phillies have sent 114 relief pitchers to the hill on the season. The relief pitchers have recorded 10 holds over the course of the season (28th in the league).

The Philadelphia Phillies have accounted for 826 putouts on the campaign, in addition to 274 assists and 18 errors. Their fielding percentage is holding at .984 which has them ranked 23rd in professional baseball, and have 17 double plays. The Phillies have turned 63.7% of baseballs in play into outs in their 2,478 innings on the field, which has them sitting at 30th in the majors.

Nola has taken the ball for 1,746 innings and is sitting with 1,911 punch outs so far in his pro baseball career. Nola (110-92 mark in his career) holds a FIP of 3.81 while facing 7,179 opposing hitters in the majors. His ERA is 3.87 (751 earned runs allowed) and his WHIP is 1.157. He has conceded 1,558 base hits (8.0 hits per nine innings) and has had 462 free passes.

Miami has tallied 23 HRs for the year as well as 129 runs batted in. They have recorded 49 two-baggers, while walking 112 times as well as racking up 135 runs. The Miami Marlins have a team on-base percentage of .331 in addition to a batting average of .250 over the course of the season. The Marlins have a team slugging % of .381 and they are recording 4.35 runs per game (17th in the league). They have been called out on strikes on 251 instances (18th in MLB) and have earned 257 base hits.

The Marlins are sitting with a team WHIP of 1.276 and have a FIP of 3.98 as a unit on the year. They come in at 5th in the league as a pitching staff in total hits conceded with 228. The Miami pitching staff have given up 134 runs on the year while holding a team ERA of 3.92 (118 earned runs conceded). They have earned a strikeout to walk ratio of 8.60 (259 strikeouts vs 118 walks). They have given up 27 homers and they relinquish 4.45 runs per 9 innings (15th in MLB).

They are ranked 14th in MLB with a save rate of 62.5%, and they have sent 95 relievers to the hill on the year. Their relief pitchers have taken the field 31 times in high leverage situations and on 23 occasions with runners on. With 37 save situations, the Marlins have recorded 20 holds and 6 blown saves. Miami has had bullpen pitchers step onto the hill in 16 save chances and they have earned 10 saves. Miami relief pitchers have an inherited score percentage of 31.4% out of 35 inherited base runners.

The Miami Marlins have gotten 17 double plays and hold a fielding percentage of .980 (28th in the majors). The Marlins have accrued 244 assists, 22 errors and have 815 putouts over the course of the season. Out of their 2,445 innings on the field, the Marlins have accumulated a efficiency on defense of 71.1% (8th in MLB).

So far in his pro baseball career, Paddack has surrendered 616 hits while he has totaled 555 punch outs in 609 innings pitched. Paddack (32-40 career win-loss record) holds a 4.71 ERA and has surrendered 9.1 hits per nine innings. He has given up a total of 319 earned runs while holding a WHIP of 1.229 and being the owner of a FIP of 4.6. He has a strikeout to walk ratio of 4.17 and he has faced 2,569 batters during his career.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Philadelphia (-132)

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