Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Prediction, 5/4/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins

Date: Monday, May 4, 2026

Location: LoanDepot Park in Miami, FL

TV: MLB.TV

Odds/Point Spread: Philadelphia (-160) Miami (+132)

The Philadelphia Phillies (13-20) are en route to LoanDepot Park on Monday where they will take on the Miami Marlins (16-17). The odds on this game have Philadelphia at -160 while Miami is sitting at +132. The over/under has been set at 9. The men taking the mound are Aaron Nola and Janson Junk.

Philadelphia has a slugging % of .368 and have struck out 269 times, while drawing a walk on 105 occasions. They have compiled 122 RBI's and 248 hits so far this season, and their team batting average comes in at .223. The Phillies have tallied 45 doubles as a squad and have smacked 34 balls out of the stadium. They have earned 124 runs while holding a team on-base percentage of .298. As a squad, the Philadelphia Phillies are putting up 3.8 runs/g, which ranks them 28th in the league.

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The Phillies have an earned run average of 4.83 on the season (27th in the league), and their staff has struck out 313 hitters. Phillies pitchers have surrendered 32 home runs and also 172 runs in total (26th in MLB). Their pitching staff has walked 108 players from the other team and their FIP comes in at 3.67 as a unit on the campaign. Philadelphia has allowed 327 base hits (10.1 per 9 innings) and 157 earned runs. They have earned a strikeout to walk ratio of 2.90 and the pitching staff holds a collective WHIP of 1.49.

The Phillies have dispatched 120 relievers to the hill over the course of the season. The relief pitchers have inherited 46 base runners over the course of the season and 34.8% of them ended up crossing the plate. The relief pitchers have 11 holds on the year (28th in the league). Phillies relief pitchers have entered the game with runners on base 37 times and also have had 27 appearances in high leverage situations. They have compiled 6 saves on the campaign and have missed out on 4 of their 10 chances to get a save. The Phillies relief pitchers have a save rate of 60.0% and stepped onto the hill in 21 save situations.

The Phillies have turned 63.6% of balls in play into outs out of 2,631 innings, which ranks them 30th in the majors. The Philadelphia Phillies have amassed 877 putouts so far this season, in addition to 286 assists and 18 errors. Their fielding percentage is holding steady at .985 which has them ranked 20th in professional baseball, and they have turned 17 double plays.

Nola (110-92 career win-loss record) has earned a FIP of 3.81 and he has gone up against 7,179 opposing batters in the majors. He has conceded 1,558 hits (8.0 hits per 9 innings) and has had 462 free passes. His ERA is 3.87 (751 earned runs allowed) and he has a WHIP of 1.157. Nola has pitched in 1,746 frames and has earned 1,911 punch outs thus far in his career.

The Marlins have a team slugging % of .382 and they earn 4.36 runs per contest (17th in the league). They have put up 54 doubles, while taking a walk 122 times as well as notching 144 runs. Miami has a total of 24 home runs on the campaign to go along with 138 RBIs. They have been called out on strikes on 273 instances (16th in MLB) and have notched a total of 275 base hits. The Miami Marlins have compiled an on-base percentage of .333 in addition to a team batting average of .252 on the season.

The Marlins hold a team WHIP of 1.245 in addition to having a FIP of 3.90 as a team so far this year. They have a ranking of 4th in MLB as a pitching staff in total hits surrendered with 238. The Miami pitching staff have surrendered 140 runs so far this season and come in with a team ERA of 3.86 (124 earned runs allowed). They have earned a strikeout to walk ratio of 8.70 (279 strikeouts vs 122 walks). They have relinquished 28 dingers and they relinquish 4.36 runs per 9 innings (12th in the league).

Miami relief pitchers hold an inherited score percentage of 31.4% out of 35 inherited base runners. Their relief pitchers have stepped onto the mound 31 times in high leverage situations and also on 23 occasions with runners on. With 37 save situations, the Marlins have recorded 20 holds in addition to 6 blown saves. They are currently ranked 14th in MLB with a save rate of 62.5%, and they have sent 99 relief pitchers onto the field for the season.

The Miami Marlins have turned 19 double plays and have earned a fielding percentage of .980 (28th in the majors). The Marlins have racked up 260 assists, 23 errors and have amassed 869 putouts during this campaign. In their 2,607 innings played, the Marlins have earned a defensive efficiency of 71.4% (6th in professional baseball).

Junk (9-9 record in his career) has a 4.52 earned run average while allowing 9.8 hits per nine innings. He has a K/BB ratio of 4.13 and he has faced 769 opposing hitters in his MLB career. He has allowed 92 ER's while earning a WHIP of 1.262 and a FIP of 4.5. During his career, Junk has surrendered 199 base knocks while tallying 132 strikeouts in 183 innings pitched.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Philadelphia (-160)

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