Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Prediction, 7/28/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins

Date: Tuesday, July 28, 2026

Location: LoanDepot Park in Miami, FL

TV: MLB.TV

Odds/Point Spread: Philadelphia (-128) Miami (+106)

The Miami Marlins (52-54) will try to beat the Philadelphia Phillies (57-49) at LoanDepot Park on Tuesday. The moneyline on this matchup has Philadelphia at -128 and Miami is priced at +106. The total is 8. The pitchers expected to start will be Aaron Nola and Sandy Alcantara.

Philadelphia has a slugging percentage of .401 and have been called out on strikes 943 times, while taking a walk on 309 occasions. They have amassed 445 RBI's and 841 base knocks this year, and their average at the plate comes in at .236. The Phillies have recorded 145 doubles as a team and have hit 136 balls out of the park. They have accounted for 460 runs while having a team OBP of .303. As a team, the Philadelphia Phillies are compiling 4.3 runs per game, which is 18th in baseball.

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They have earned a K/BB ratio of 3.39 and their pitching staff has earned a collective WHIP of 1.30. Phillies pitchers have allowed 129 home runs and 471 total runs (16th in MLB). Philadelphia has yielded 919 base hits (8.8 per 9 innings) in addition to 440 earned runs. The Phillies hold a team ERA of 4.21 for the year (17th in baseball), and their staff has struck out 1,040 batters. They have walked 307 opposing hitters and their FIP is 3.81 as a team for the year.

The Phillies relievers have accumulated a save rate of 74.4% and have come into the game in 82 save situations. They have accumulated 29 saves for the year and have not converted 10 of 39 save opportunities. The bullpen pitchers have inherited 111 base runners on the season with 36.0% of them earned a run for their team. Phillies pitchers have entered the game with opponents on base 79 times in addition to having 86 appearances in high leverage situations. The Phillies have sent 353 relievers to the mound over the course of the season. The bullpen have a total of 41 holds on the year (26th in MLB).

The Philadelphia Phillies have 2,821 putouts on the year, in addition to 871 assists and 56 errors. Their fielding percentage is at .985 which has them sitting 17th in professional baseball, and have accumulated 59 double plays. The Phillies have converted 67.1% of baseballs in play into outs out of 8,463 innings, which ranks them 29th in baseball.

Nola has pitched in 1,823 innings and has earned 1,988 K's during his pro baseball career. Nola (112-97 career mark) is the owner of a FIP of 3.89 while he has gone up against 7,514 hitters in the majors. His ERA is 3.95 (800 ER's allowed) and he has a WHIP of 1.167. He has conceded 1,643 base knocks (8.1 hits per nine innings) and has had 485 free passes.

The Miami Marlins have tallied an on-base percentage of .325 and a team batting average of .250 on the campaign. They have been called out on strikes on 869 occasions (20th in baseball) and have recorded 880 base hits. Miami has tallied 107 home runs for the year as well as 446 RBIs. The Marlins have a team slugging % of .404 and they average 4.38 runs per contest (17th in MLB). They have notched 176 doubles, while getting a free base 353 times and recording 464 runs.

The Miami pitching staff have relinquished 462 runs for the season while holding an ERA of 4.09 (423 earned runs conceded). They have given up 108 dingers and they give up 4.47 runs per 9 innings (12th in the league). The Marlins have a team WHIP of 1.257 and have a FIP of 4.07 as a unit so far this season. Their K/BB ratio sits at 8.60 (887 strikeouts vs 362 bases on balls). They are currently ranked 6th in MLB as a pitching staff in total hits relinquished with 808.

Sitting with 99 save situations, the Marlins have tallied 60 holds and also 14 blown saves. Miami has had relief pitchers enter the game in 37 save opportunities and they have converted 23 saves. Miami relievers have an inherited score percentage of 20.9% of 134 inherited base runners. Their bullpen pitchers have taken the field 101 times in high leverage situations in addition to 92 occasions with runners on. They rank 16th in the league with a save rate of 62.2%, and they have sent 340 bullpen pitchers to the mound over the course of the season.

The Miami Marlins have turned 79 double plays and have a fielding percentage of .982 (26th in pro baseball). The Marlins have 878 assists, 68 errors and have accounted for 2,793 putouts during this campaign. In their 8,379 innings played, the Marlins have accumulated a defensive efficiency of 70.6% (10th in professional baseball).

Alcantara (62-73 career record) holds a 3.69 ERA while conceding 7.9 hits per nine innings. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.83 and he has faced 5,023 opposing batters so far in his pro baseball career. He has surrendered 500 earned runs while earning a WHIP of 1.183 and a FIP of 3.6. In his MLB career, Alcantara has surrendered 1,073 base knocks and he has 1,041 K's in 1,218 innings.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Parlay's Pundit's Pick: Take Miami (+106) and under 8 runs

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