Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Prediction, 7/29/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins

Date: Wednesday, July 29, 2026

Location: LoanDepot Park in Miami, FL

TV: MLB.TV

Odds/Point Spread: Philadelphia (-160) Miami (+132)

The Miami Marlins (53-54) will try to defeat the Philadelphia Phillies (57-50) at LoanDepot Park on Wednesday. The moneyline on this contest has the Phillies at -160 and the Marlins are priced at +132. The betting total comes in at 8.5. The expected starting pitchers will be Jesus Luzardo and Ryan Gusto.

Philadelphia has a slugging percentage of .402 and have been called out on strikes 952 times, while drawing a walk on 313 occasions. They have amassed 451 runs batted in as well as 851 hits over the course of the season, and their average at the plate is sitting at .237. The Phillies have tallied 146 doubles as a unit and have smacked 137 baseballs out of the stadium. They have a total of 467 runs while having a team OBP of .304. As a squad, the Philadelphia Phillies are compiling 4.4 runs per game, which is 18th in MLB.

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The Phillies have a team ERA of 4.25 so far this season (19th in the league), and the staff has struck out 1,049 hitters. Phillies pitchers have yielded 131 home runs and also 479 total runs (16th in the league). Their pitching staff has walked 309 players from the other team and their FIP comes in at 3.82 as a squad this year. Philadelphia has allowed 933 base hits (8.9 per 9 innings) and 448 earned runs. They have earned a strikeout to walk ratio of 3.39 and their pitching staff has earned a collective WHIP of 1.31.

The Phillies have sent 358 relief pitchers to the mound so far this season. The bullpen pitchers have inherited 111 runners this year with 36.0% of those runners earned a run for their team. The relief pitchers have a total of 44 holds so far this year (26th in baseball). Phillies relief pitchers have gone to the mound with opponents on base 79 times and also have had 90 appearances in high leverage situations. They have accumulated 29 saves this season and have blown 11 of their 40 save opportunities. The Phillies bullpen have recorded a save percentage of 72.5% and have stepped onto the mound in 86 save situations.

The Philadelphia Phillies have accounted for 2,846 putouts on the campaign, in addition to 876 assists and 58 errors. Their fielding rate is holding at .985 which is 19th in MLB, and they have turned 59 double plays. The Phillies have converted 67.0% of balls hit into play into outs in their 8,538 innings on the diamond, which has them ranked 29th in pro baseball.

Luzardo has taken the ball for 817 frames and has totaled 927 strikeouts thus far in his career. Luzardo (50-46 win-loss record in his career) sits with a FIP of 4.00 while he has gone up against 3,413 batters during his time in the major leagues. His ERA is 4.06 (369 earned runs allowed) and he has a WHIP of 1.233. He has given up 733 base knocks (8.1 hits per 9 innings) with 275 walks.

Miami has hit 109 home runs on the year to go along with 453 runs batted in. They have put up 178 doubles, while taking a walk 355 times as well as recording 472 runs. The Miami Marlins are sitting with a team on-base percentage of .326 in addition to a batting average of .251 so far this year. The Marlins have a team slugging % of .407 and they score 4.41 runs per game (17th in MLB). They have been called out on strikes on 878 instances (19th in MLB) and have earned 894 base hits.

The Marlins have a team WHIP of 1.260 in addition to having a FIP of 4.07 as a team for the season. They are sitting at 5th in the league as a pitching staff in total hits allowed with 818. The Miami pitching staff have conceded 469 runs this season while holding an ERA of 4.11 (429 earned runs surrendered). Their strikeout to walk ratio comes in at 8.60 (896 strikeouts vs 366 walks). They have conceded 109 dingers and they give up 4.49 runs per 9 innings (13th in the league).

With 101 save situations, the Marlins have tallied 61 holds in addition to 15 blown saves. Miami has had relief pitchers take the mound in 38 save chances and they have converted 23 saves. Miami relief pitchers have an inherited score percentage of 22.1% out of their 136 inherited runners. Their relievers have come in 102 times in high leverage situations and also on 93 occasions with runners on. They sit at 18th in baseball with a save percentage of 60.5%, and they have sent 344 relief pitchers to the mound on the season.

In 8,460 innings on the field, the Marlins are sitting with a efficiency on defense of 70.5% (10th in the majors). The Miami Marlins have gotten 81 double plays and have a fielding rate of .982 (26th in baseball). The Marlins have racked up 886 assists, 69 errors and have a total of 2,820 putouts for the year.

During his MLB career, Gusto has allowed 148 base knocks while totaling 128 strikeouts in 135 innings pitched. Gusto (7-9 record in his career) has a 5.39 earned run average while allowing 9.9 hits per 9 innings. He has allowed 81 earned runs while holding a WHIP of 1.442 and being the owner of a FIP of 5.3. His strikeout to walk ratio is 2.72 and he has gone up against 604 batters so far in his MLB career.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Philadelphia (-160)

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