Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Prediction, 9/17/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets

Date: Thursday, September 17, 2026

Location: Citi Field in Queens, NY

TV: Sportsnet New York

Odds/Point Spread: Philadelphia (-196) New York (+162)

Citi Field is where the New York Mets (69-82) will take on the Philadelphia Phillies (83-68) on Thursday. The moneyline on this matchup has Philadelphia at -196 and New York is sitting at +162. The betting total is set at 8. The pitchers expected to start will be Aaron Nola and Nolan McLean.

Philadelphia has a slugging rate of .400 and have been called out on strikes 1,243 times, while being walked on 474 occasions. They have compiled 658 RBI's in addition to 1,225 base knocks for the season, while their average at the plate is sitting at .242. The Phillies have hit 224 doubles as a squad and have hit 177 baseballs out of the stadium. They have notched a total of 678 runs scored and hold an OBP of .311. As a team, the Philadelphia Phillies are putting up 4.5 runs per contest, which has them sitting at 14th in the league.

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The Phillies have compiled a team earned run average of 4.01 on the campaign (11th in baseball), and their staff has struck out 1,468 hitters. Phillies pitchers have relinquished 180 long balls in addition to 650 total runs (10th in the league). They have walked 452 opposing batters and their FIP sits at 3.82 as a team over the course of the season. Philadelphia has given up 1,270 hits (8.5 per 9 innings) in addition to 598 earned runs. They have a strikeout to walk ratio of 3.25 and their pitching staff has a collective WHIP of 1.28.

The Phillies have dispatched 495 relievers to the mound on the year. The relievers have inherited 154 runners this year and 37.0% of those players earned a run for their team. The bullpen have notched 69 holds on the season (26th in the league). Phillies relief pitchers have gone to the mound with runners on 113 times in addition to having 152 appearances in high leverage situations. They have accumulated 39 saves so far this season and have not converted 23 of 62 chances to save the game. The Phillies relief pitchers have a save rate of 62.9% and have entered the game in 133 save situations.

The Phillies have turned 67.9% of balls hit into play into outs in their 12,072 innings on the field, ranking them 28th in MLB. The Philadelphia Phillies have a tally of 4,024 putouts over the course of the season, in addition to 1,248 assists and 77 errors. Their fielding percentage is holding steady at .986 which puts them in 15th in pro baseball, and have earned 96 double plays.

Nola has taken the mound for 1,876 innings and has racked up 2,041 K's in his career. Nola (115-99 career mark) has earned a FIP of 3.85 and he has faced 7,729 opposing batters in the majors. His earned run average is 3.90 (814 earned runs allowed) and his WHIP is 1.168. He has given up 1,688 base knocks (8.1 hits per 9 innings) with 504 free passes.

The Mets have a team slugging percentage of .395 and they earn 4.30 runs per game (21st in the league). They have hit 195 two-baggers, while walking 489 times as well as notching 649 runs. New York has knocked in 190 home runs on the year and 620 RBIs. They have struck out on 1,272 occasions (13th in MLB) and have notched a total of 1,213 hits. The New York Mets have an OBP of .309 as well as a batting average of .238 on the year.

The Mets have a team WHIP of 1.299 in addition to having a FIP of 4.07 as a staff so far this year. They come in at 16th in baseball as a staff in total hits surrendered with 1,231. The New York pitching staff have conceded 686 runs over the course of the season while having a team ERA of 4.16 (622 earned runs yielded). Their K/BB ratio comes in at 9.10 (1,355 strikeouts against 516 bases on balls). They have surrendered 173 homers and they allow 4.59 runs per 9 innings (18th in MLB).

They are ranked 18th in the league holding a save percentage of 60.4%, and they have sent 470 bullpen pitchers to the hill so far this year. Their bullpen pitchers have come in 156 times in high leverage situations and also on 137 occasions with runners on. Sitting with 120 save situations, the Mets have compiled 68 holds in addition to 19 blown saves. New York has called on bullpen pitchers to enter the contest in 48 save chances and they have earned 29 saves. New York relief pitchers have an inherited score percentage of 28.1% out of 192 inherited runners.

Out of their 12,111 innings on the field, the Mets have earned a defensive efficiency of 69.4% (19th in professional baseball). The New York Mets have gotten 92 double plays and have a fielding percentage of .983 (25th in professional baseball). The Mets have recorded 1,170 assists, 90 errors and have notched a total of 4,037 putouts for the year.

So far in his career, McLean has surrendered 164 hits and he has 241 K's in 214 innings pitched. McLean (16-10 career record) has a 2.98 earned run average and has surrendered 6.9 hits per nine innings. He has allowed a total of 71 ER's while earning a WHIP of 1.148 and having a FIP of 2.9. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.94 and he has faced 883 hitters during his pro baseball career.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take New York (+162)

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