Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction, 5/15/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates

Date: Friday, May 15, 2026

Location: PNC Park in Pittsburgh, PA

TV: SportsNet Pittsburgh

Odds/Point Spread: Philadelphia (-196) Pittsburgh (+162)

The Pittsburgh Pirates (24-20) host the Philadelphia Phillies (20-23) at PNC Park on Friday. The moneyline on this game has the Phillies at -196 and the Pirates are at +162. The over/under is 8.5. The starting pitchers are Aaron Nola and Braxton Ashcraft.

The Phillies have recorded 61 two-baggers as a unit and have knocked 51 balls out of the park. Philadelphia has a slugging rate of .390 and have struck out 344 times, while drawing a walk on 127 occasions. As a team, the Philadelphia Phillies are earning 4.0 runs per game, which puts them at 26th in baseball. They have recorded 170 runs batted in in addition to 339 hits so far this year, and their batting average is sitting at .232. They have 173 runs and hold an on-base percentage of .299.

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Their strikeout to walk ratio sits at 3.22 and the pitching staff sits with a WHIP of 1.39. Phillies pitchers have surrendered 43 home runs and also 206 runs (23rd in MLB). Philadelphia has conceded 407 base hits (9.6 per 9 innings) as well as 189 earned runs. The Phillies have compiled a team ERA of 4.44 this year (22nd in baseball), and they have rung up 409 batters. Their pitching staff has walked 127 opposing hitters and their FIP is 3.57 as a unit so far this season.

The Phillies relief pitchers have compiled a save rate of 69.2% and have stepped onto the mound in 27 save situations. They have compiled 9 saves on the campaign and have not converted 4 of their 13 save chances. The relief pitchers have inherited 56 base runners on the year with 32.1% of those players crossing home plate. Phillies relief pitchers have come into the game with runners on 46 times and also have had 37 appearances in high leverage situations. The Phillies have dispatched 152 relief pitchers to the hill so far this year. The relief pitchers have 14 holds for the year (27th in the league).

The Philadelphia Phillies have earned a total of 1,150 putouts on the campaign, in addition to 380 assists and 20 errors. Their fielding rate is holding steady at .987 which has them sitting 16th in MLB, and have a total of 26 double plays. The Phillies have converted 65.1% of balls in play into outs in their 3,450 innings, which has them sitting at 30th in pro baseball.

Nola has pitched in 1,757 frames and has racked up 1,920 K's thus far in his career. Nola (111-92 career mark) holds a FIP of 3.80 while he has gone up against 7,222 opposing hitters in the majors. His earned run average is 3.86 (754 ER's allowed) and his WHIP is 1.157. He has given up 1,569 base knocks (8.0 hits per nine innings) with 464 walks.

The Pittsburgh Pirates are sitting with an on-base percentage of .336 as well as a team batting average of .248 over the course of the season. They have struck out on 391 occasions (7th in the league) and have earned 370 base hits. Pittsburgh has knocked in 45 home runs so far this year and 205 RBIs. The Pirates hold a slugging percentage of .389 and they score 4.95 runs per game (6th in baseball). They have tallied 62 two-baggers, while taking a walk 179 times as well as scoring 213 runs.

The Pirates hold a team WHIP of 1.222 with a FIP of 3.63 as a unit this season. Their strikeout to walk ratio sits at 8.80 (383 strikeouts vs 153 bases on balls). They have a ranking of 8th in baseball as a pitching staff in total hits conceded with 325. They have given up 34 HR's and they surrender 4.28 runs per 9 innings (13th in the league). The Pittsburgh pitching staff have given up 186 runs on the year while holding an ERA of 3.75 (163 earned runs yielded).

Pittsburgh relief pitchers hold an inherited score rate of 34.0% of 50 inherited base runners. Their relievers have stepped onto the hill 51 times in high leverage situations and on 41 occasions with runners on. Sitting with 45 save situations, the Pirates have accumulated 27 holds and 10 blown saves. They rank 29th in the league holding a save rate of 44.4%, and they have dispatched 143 relievers onto the field this year.

In 3,525 innings played, the Pirates have accumulated a efficiency on defense of 71.0% (10th in MLB). The Pittsburgh Pirates have gotten 30 double plays and have notched a fielding percentage of .985 (20th in MLB). The Pirates have recorded 352 assists, 23 errors and have accounted for 1,175 putouts this season.

Ashcraft (6-6 career win-loss record) has a 2.76 ERA while allowing 7.7 hits per 9 innings. His strikeout to walk ratio is 3.21 and he has gone up against 483 opposing batters in his career. He has given up a total of 36 ER's while earning a WHIP of 1.175 and a FIP of 2.7. So far in his career, Ashcraft has conceded 100 hits and he has 122 K's in 117 innings.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Philadelphia (-196)

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