Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction, 8/1/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds

Date: Saturday, August 1, 2026

Location: Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, OH

TV: Reds.TV

Odds/Point Spread: Pittsburgh (-150) Cincinnati (+125)

The Pittsburgh Pirates (55-55) are traveling to Great American Ball Park on Saturday where they will take on the Cincinnati Reds (51-57). The moneyline on this game has Pittsburgh at -150 and Cincinnati is priced at +125. The over/under is set at 8.5. The pitchers who are expected to start will be Braxton Ashcraft and Andrew Abbott.

The Pirates have compiled 175 two-baggers as a team and have knocked 138 balls out of the park. Pittsburgh is slugging .419 and have been rung up 1,039 times, while drawing a walk on 397 occasions. As a team, the Pittsburgh Pirates are putting up 5.1 runs per contest, which has them sitting at 4th in baseball. They have 540 runs batted in as well as 992 hits on the season, while their batting average is at .259. They have notched a total of 565 runs scored while holding a team OBP of .336.

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The Pirates have a team ERA of 4.26 this year (21st in the league), and the staff has rung up 1,016 hitters. Pirates pitchers have relinquished 111 home runs and also 529 runs in total (23rd in baseball). They have walked 395 opposing hitters and their FIP comes in at 3.89 as a squad over the course of the season. Pittsburgh has allowed 905 hits (8.3 per 9 innings) and 467 earned runs. They have accumulated a K/BB ratio of 2.57 and their pitching staff holds a WHIP of 1.32.

The Pirates bullpen have a save percentage of 52.5% and stepped onto the hill in 88 save situations. They have tallied 21 saves on the season and have blown 19 of 40 save opportunities. The relievers have inherited 137 runners this season and 30.7% of those players earned a run for their team. Pirates relief pitchers have come into the game with opponents on base 99 times as well as having 103 appearances in high leverage situations. The Pirates have sent 351 relief pitchers to the mound this year. The relievers have accumulated 47 holds over the course of the season (25th in the league).

The Pirates have turned 68.6% of balls hit into play into outs out of 8,880 innings on the field, which ranks them 27th in MLB. The Pittsburgh Pirates have earned a total of 2,960 putouts this season, as well as 862 assists and 66 errors. Their fielding percentage is holding steady at .983 which ranks 22nd in the majors, and have accumulated 87 double plays.

Ashcraft has pitched in 191 innings and has tallied 206 K's during his MLB career. Ashcraft (14-8 career win-loss mark) sits with a FIP of 3.52 while facing 799 hitters during his time in the majors. His ERA is 3.58 (76 earned runs allowed) and he has a WHIP of 1.213. He has surrendered 178 hits (8.4 hits per 9 innings) and has 54 free passes.

The Cincinnati Reds have accounted for a team OBP of .309 and a team batting average of .230 over the course of the season. They have struck out on 1,026 instances (3rd in the league) and have 830 base hits. Cincinnati has compiled 139 long balls this year as well as 423 RBIs. The Reds hold a slugging % of .395 and they are scoring 4.10 runs per contest (27th in MLB). They have notched 160 two-baggers, while taking a walk 391 times as well as recording 443 runs.

The Reds are sitting with a team WHIP of 1.414 and have a FIP of 4.80 as a pitching staff this season. Their K/BB ratio sits at 8.10 (866 strikeouts against 462 free passes). They are currently ranked 17th in MLB as a staff in total hits relinquished with 897. They have given up 140 dingers and they allow 4.80 runs per 9 innings (21st in baseball). The Cincinnati pitching staff have allowed 512 runs this season while having a team ERA of 4.41 (471 earned runs given up).

Cincinnati relievers hold an inherited score percentage of 26.7% out of their 172 inherited runners. Their relievers have stepped onto the hill 132 times in high leverage situations and on 121 occasions with runners on. Sitting with 104 save situations, the Reds have earned 59 holds in addition to 17 blown saves. They rank 18th in the league with a save rate of 60.5%, and they have sent 384 relief pitchers to the mound so far this year.

The Cincinnati Reds have turned 76 double plays and own a fielding percentage of .984 (20th in baseball). The Reds have racked up 876 assists, 60 errors and have 2,883 putouts for the year. In their 8,649 innings played, the Reds have a defensive efficiency of 70.6% (11th in the majors).

In his career, Abbott has given up 483 hits while tallying 477 strikeouts in 530 frames. Abbott (33-29 win-loss record in his career) has earned a 3.51 earned run average while surrendering 8.2 hits per nine innings. He has conceded 207 ER's while earning a WHIP of 1.275 and having a FIP of 3.5. He has a strikeout to walk ratio of 2.47 and he has faced 2,234 opposing hitters so far in his MLB career.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Pittsburgh (-150)

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