Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction, 8/2/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds

Date: Sunday, August 2, 2026

Location: Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, OH

TV: Reds.TV

Odds/Point Spread: Pittsburgh (-150) Cincinnati (+125)

The Pittsburgh Pirates (55-55) are on their way to Great American Ball Park on Sunday where they will try to beat the Cincinnati Reds (51-57). The line on this matchup has Pittsburgh at -150 and Cincinnati opens at +125. The total is 8.5. The pitchers expected to start will be Mitch Keller and Chase Burns.

Pittsburgh owns a slugging percentage of .419 and have been called out on strikes 1,039 times, while drawing a walk on 397 occasions. They have compiled 540 runs batted in in addition to 992 hits so far this year, while their team batting average comes in at .259. The Pirates have tallied 175 doubles as a unit and have hit 138 balls out of the stadium. They have earned 565 runs scored and hold an on-base percentage of .336. As a team, the Pittsburgh Pirates are compiling 5.1 runs/g, which puts them at 4th in the league.

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The Pirates are sitting with a team earned run average of 4.26 over the course of the season (21st in baseball), and their staff has rung up 1,016 hitters. Pirates pitchers have conceded 111 long balls and 529 runs in total (23rd in the league). They have walked 395 opposing hitters and their FIP comes in at 3.89 as a squad over the course of the season. Pittsburgh has surrendered 905 hits (8.3 per 9 innings) in addition to 467 earned runs. They have accrued a K/BB ratio of 2.57 and the pitching staff holds a collective WHIP of 1.32.

Pirates relief pitchers have entered the game with runners on 99 times in addition to having 103 appearances in high leverage situations. The relievers have a total of 47 holds so far this season (25th in MLB). The Pirates relievers have accumulated a save percentage of 52.5% and have entered the game in 88 save situations. They have earned 21 saves this year and have not converted 19 of 40 chances to get a save. The bullpen pitchers have inherited 137 runners so far this year and 30.7% of those runners ended up scoring. The Pirates have dispatched 351 relievers to the mound so far this season.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have earned 2,960 putouts so far this season, in addition to 862 assists and 66 errors. Their fielding rate is holding at .983 which ranks 22nd in pro baseball, and have a total of 87 double plays. The Pirates have converted 68.6% of balls hit into play into outs out of their 8,880 innings on the diamond, which has them sitting 27th in the majors.

Keller has thrown 991 innings and has earned 924 strikeouts during his career. Keller (48-72 career mark) is the owner of a FIP of 4.48 while going up against 4,305 hitters during his time in the majors. His ERA is 4.55 (501 earned runs allowed) and he has a career WHIP of 1.374. He has given up 1,025 hits (9.3 hits per nine innings) with 337 free passes.

The Reds have a team slugging % of .395 and they earn 4.10 runs per game (27th in baseball). They have put up 160 doubles, while taking a walk 391 times and recording 443 runs. Cincinnati has a total of 139 long balls this year as well as 423 runs batted in. They have struck out on 1,026 instances (3rd in the league) and have totaled 830 base hits. The Cincinnati Reds have earned a team on-base percentage of .309 and a team batting average of .230 this year.

The Reds hold a team WHIP of 1.414 in addition to having a FIP of 4.80 as a staff on the year. Their strikeout to walk ratio comes in at 8.10 (866 strikeouts against 462 bases on balls). They rank 17th in the league as a pitching staff in total hits conceded with 897. They have yielded 140 HR's and they concede 4.80 runs per 9 innings (21st in the league). The Cincinnati pitching staff have allowed 512 runs on the campaign while holding an ERA of 4.41 (471 earned runs given up).

They rank 18th in baseball holding a save percentage of 60.5%, and they have sent 384 relief pitchers onto the field this year. Their relievers have stepped onto the mound 132 times in high leverage situations and on 121 occasions with base runners. With 104 save situations, the Reds have accumulated 59 holds in addition to 17 blown saves. Cincinnati has had bullpen pitchers step onto the mound in 43 save chances and they have walked away with 26 saves. Cincinnati bullpen pitchers have an inherited score percentage of 26.7% of 172 inherited runners.

Out of their 8,649 innings on the field, the Reds have a defensive efficiency of 70.6% (11th in professional baseball). The Cincinnati Reds have turned 76 double plays and have a fielding percentage of .984 (20th in baseball). The Reds have racked up 876 assists, 60 errors and have accounted for 2,883 putouts during this campaign.

So far in his pro baseball career, Burns has given up 126 hits and he has 195 K's in 155 frames. Burns (12-4 record in his career) holds a 3.01 earned run average and has given up 7.3 hits per 9 innings. He has allowed 52 earned runs while earning a WHIP of 1.178 and a FIP of 3.0. He has a strikeout to walk ratio of 3.42 and he has faced 643 batters so far in his pro baseball career.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Pittsburgh (-150)

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