Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets Prediction, 3/28/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets

Date: Saturday, March 28, 2026

Location: Citi Field in Queens, NY

TV: Sportsnet New York

Odds/Point Spread: Pittsburgh (+220) New York (-275)

The New York Mets (83-79 last year) will compete against the Pittsburgh Pirates (71-91 last season) at Citi Field on Saturday. The moneyline on this contest has the Pirates at +220 while the Mets are sitting at -275. The over/under is 8. The expected starting pitchers are Mitch Keller and David Peterson.

Pittsburgh had a slugging % of .350 and struck out 1,422 times, while being walked on 530 occasions. They accumulated 561 RBI's in addition to 1,244 base knocks last year, while their average at the plate came in at .231. The Pirates earned 245 two-baggers as a unit and knocked 117 baseballs out of the park. They accounted for 583 runs scored and held an OBP of .305. As a squad, the Pittsburgh Pirates scored 3.6 runs per contest, which had them at 30th in MLB.

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Their strikeout to walk ratio was 2.78 and their pitching staff finished with a WHIP of 1.22. Pirates pitchers gave up 153 home runs in addition to 645 runs in total (5th in the league). Pittsburgh surrendered 1,267 hits (8.0 per 9 innings) in addition to 598 earned runs. The Pirates finished with a team earned run average of 3.76 over the course of the prior season (7th in the league), and the staff struck out 1,314 hitters. Their pitching staff walked 473 opposing batters and their FIP was 3.83 as a unit over the course of last year.

The Pirates bullpen had a save rate of 58.1% and entered the game in 141 save situations. The relievers inherited 218 base runners over the course of last year and 35.3% of them crossed home plate. Pirates relief pitchers entered the contest with runners on base 143 times as well as having 161 games in high leverage situations. The Pirates had sent 510 relievers to the mound last season. The bullpen finished with 76 holds over the course of the prior season (24th in the league). They recorded 36 saves last year and blew 26 out of their 62 chances to get a save.

The Pittsburgh Pirates notched a total of 4,292 putouts over the course of the prior season, in addition to 1,334 assists and 77 errors. Their fielding percentage finished at .986 which was 12th in MLB, and they turned 118 double plays. The Pirates converted 70.7% of balls in play into outs out of their 12,876 innings on the field, which ranked them 9th in professional baseball.

Keller (42-65 career record) is the owner of a FIP of 4.45 and he has gone up against 3,818 opposing hitters during his time in the major leagues. He has surrendered 914 base knocks (9.4 hits per 9 innings) and has 299 free passes. His earned run average is 4.51 (440 ER's allowed) and he has a WHIP of 1.383. Keller has taken the hill for 877 innings and has racked up 837 strikeouts in his MLB career.

New York accounted for 224 HRs for the prior year to go along with 746 runs batted in. They hit 262 doubles, while taking a walk 563 times and putting up 766 runs. The New York Mets tallied an OBP of .326 as well as a batting average of .249 during the previous year. The Mets had a team slugging % of .427 and they earned 4.73 runs per contest (9th in MLB). They struck out on 1,325 occasions (21st in the league) and totaled 1,359 base knocks.

The Mets had a team WHIP of 1.323 and were the owners of a FIP of 3.88 as a squad for the prior year. They had a ranking of 18th in MLB as a staff in total hits given up with 1,338. The New York pitching staff conceded 715 runs over the course of last season while having an ERA of 4.03 (641 earned runs conceded). They had a strikeout to walk ratio of 8.70 (1,387 strikeouts against 556 bases on balls). They conceded 149 long balls and they surrendered 4.49 runs per 9 innings (18th in MLB).

Finishing with 170 save situations, the Mets earned 101 holds and also 28 blown saves. New York had bullpen pitchers take the mound in 68 save opportunities and they tallied 40 saves. Their bullpen pitchers took the field 185 times in high leverage situations and on 176 occasions with runners on base. New York relief pitchers held an inherited score percentage of 35.0% out of their 257 inherited runners. They were ranked 23rd in MLB holding a save percentage of 58.8%, and they sent 541 relievers to the hill last season.

Out of their 12,888 innings on the diamond, the Mets had a defensive efficiency of 68.8% (25th in professional baseball). The New York Mets had 119 double plays and had a fielding percentage of .986 (13th in MLB). The Mets recorded 1,475 assists, 79 errors and a tally of 4,296 putouts in the previous season.

So far in his career, Peterson has allowed 593 hits and he has 614 punch outs in 622 frames. He has given up 285 ER's while holding a WHIP of 1.374 and being the owner of a FIP of 4.1. He has a strikeout to walk ratio of 2.34 and he has faced 2,671 batters in his MLB career. Peterson (37-30 career mark) has a 4.12 earned run average while surrendering 8.6 hits per nine innings.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Pittsburgh (+220)

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