Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction, 6/29/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies

Date: Monday, June 29, 2026

Location: Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, PA

TV: NBC Sports Philadelphia

Odds/Point Spread: Pittsburgh (+126) Philadelphia (-152)

The Pittsburgh Pirates (41-42) are en route to Citizens Bank Park on Monday where they will meet the Philadelphia Phillies (46-37). The line on this matchup has the Pirates at +126 and the Phillies are priced at -152. The total is 8. The expected starting pitchers are Braxton Ashcraft and Aaron Nola.

As a squad, the Pittsburgh Pirates are putting up 5.1 runs per outing, which is 4th in MLB. They have 420 runs scored and have an OBP of .335. The Pirates have earned 130 two-baggers as a team and have hit 101 balls out of the park. They have tallied 402 runs batted in in addition to 741 base knocks over the course of the season, while their average at the plate is sitting at .258. Pittsburgh is slugging .414 and have struck out 772 times, while taking a walk on 305 occasions.

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The Pirates are sitting with a team earned run average of 4.15 this year (15th in MLB), and the staff has rung up 762 hitters. Pirates pitchers have allowed 80 home runs and 397 runs (22nd in MLB). They have walked 301 players from the other team and their FIP is 3.88 as a squad so far this year. Pittsburgh has conceded 664 hits (8.0 per 9 innings) as well as 343 earned runs. They have a strikeout to walk ratio of 2.53 and the pitching staff sits with a WHIP of 1.30.

The Pirates have dispatched 265 relievers to the mound this year. The bullpen pitchers have inherited 110 base runners over the course of the season and 30.9% of those runners earned a run for their team. The bullpen have notched 38 holds on the campaign (22nd in MLB). Pirates relief pitchers have come into the game with opponents on base 79 times in addition to having 78 appearances in high leverage situations. They have compiled 17 saves for the season and have missed out on 17 of their 34 chances to save the game. The Pirates bullpen have a save percentage of 50.0% and stepped onto the hill in 73 save situations.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have a total of 2,231 putouts thus far, as well as 659 assists and 54 errors. Their fielding rate is currently at .982 which is 28th in MLB, and have a total of 62 double plays. The Pirates have converted 69.1% of balls hit into play into outs in their 6,693 innings on the diamond, which ranks them 23rd in MLB.

Ashcraft has taken the hill for 165 innings and has 178 strikeouts during his pro baseball career. Ashcraft (11-7 career mark) holds a FIP of 2.89 while facing 684 batters in the majors. His earned run average is 2.94 (54 earned runs allowed) and his career WHIP is 1.161. He has allowed 146 hits (7.9 hits per 9 innings) and has had 46 free passes.

Philadelphia has accounted for 108 home runs for the season and 352 runs batted in. They have hit 111 doubles, while getting a free base 242 times as well as scoring 363 runs. The Philadelphia Phillies have recorded an OBP of .301 as well as a team batting average of .235 this year. The Phillies have a slugging percentage of .399 and they score 4.37 runs per game (17th in baseball). They have been called out on strikes on 719 instances (7th in MLB) and have notched a total of 656 base hits.

The Philadelphia pitching staff have allowed 362 runs on the year while holding a team ERA of 4.08 (334 earned runs yielded). They have given up 94 homers and they allow 4.42 runs per 9 innings (13th in the league). The Phillies have a team WHIP of 1.292 and have a FIP of 3.68 as a team on the season. Their strikeout to walk ratio comes in at 9.60 (788 strikeouts against 227 walks). They are sitting at 24th in baseball as a staff in total hits relinquished with 725.

Philadelphia relievers have an inherited score percentage of 32.5% out of their 83 inherited runners. Their relievers have stepped onto the hill 73 times in high leverage situations in addition to 64 occasions with base runners. Sitting with 68 save situations, the Phillies have recorded 33 holds and also 9 blown saves. They rank 5th in baseball holding a save rate of 73.5%, and they have sent 276 bullpen pitchers to the mound this season.

The Philadelphia Phillies have gotten 45 double plays and have a fielding percentage of .986 (16th in professional baseball). The Phillies have 697 assists, 41 errors and have accounted for 2,212 putouts on the campaign. Out of their 6,636 innings on the field, the Phillies have earned a defensive efficiency of 67.3% (29th in the majors).

In his pro baseball career, Nola has given up 1,612 base hits while totaling 1,958 strikeouts in 1,795 frames. Nola (112-93 career win-loss record) has earned a 3.91 earned run average and has given up 8.1 hits per nine innings. He has given up a total of 780 ER's while holding a WHIP of 1.163 and a FIP of 3.9. He has a strikeout to walk ratio of 4.11 and he has faced 7,393 opposing hitters thus far in his career.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Philadelphia (-152)

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