Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction, 7/1/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies

Date: Wednesday, July 1, 2026

Location: Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, PA

TV: NBC Sports Philadelphia

Odds/Point Spread: Pittsburgh (+132) Philadelphia (-160)

The Pittsburgh Pirates (43-42) are headed to Citizens Bank Park on Wednesday where they will try to defeat the Philadelphia Phillies (47-38). The line on this contest has Pittsburgh at +132 and Philadelphia is priced at -160. The over/under is 9. The starting pitchers are Paul Skenes and Zack Wheeler.

Pittsburgh is slugging .420 and have struck out 796 times, while taking a walk on 318 occasions. They have tallied 421 runs batted in as well as 763 base knocks for the year, and their team batting average is sitting at .259. The Pirates have hit 135 doubles as a unit and have knocked 108 baseballs out of the park. They have earned 440 runs while having a team OBP of .337. As a unit, the Pittsburgh Pirates are putting up 5.2 runs per contest, which is 3rd in MLB.

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They have earned a K/BB ratio of 2.54 and the pitching staff has recorded a WHIP of 1.30. Pirates pitchers have given up 84 home runs and also 408 runs in total (22nd in the league). Pittsburgh has conceded 681 hits (8.1 per 9 innings) and also 353 earned runs. The Pirates are sitting with a team ERA of 4.17 for the season (16th in MLB), and their staff has rung up 781 batters. They have walked 308 opposing hitters and their FIP comes in at 3.90 as a team this year.

Pirates bullpen pitchers have entered the contest with runners on 80 times in addition to having 80 appearances in high leverage situations. The relief pitchers have a total of 42 holds this season (18th in MLB). The Pirates relievers have compiled a save rate of 50.0% and have come into the game in 77 save situations. They have recorded 17 saves so far this season and have blown 17 out of their 34 save opportunities. The relievers have inherited 111 base runners on the year and 31.5% of them earned a run for their team. The Pirates have sent 271 relief pitchers to the hill so far this year.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have accounted for 2,285 putouts so far this season, as well as 681 assists and 55 errors. Their fielding percentage is holding steady at .982 which has them sitting 27th in pro baseball, and have earned 64 double plays. The Pirates have converted 69.1% of balls hit into play into outs out of 6,855 innings on the diamond, which has them sitting 24th in pro baseball.

Skenes (27-20 career win-loss mark) sits with a FIP of 2.19 while facing 1,620 opposing hitters during his time in the major leagues. He has given up 300 hits (6.5 hits per nine innings) and has had 94 walks. His earned run average is 2.22 (102 earned runs allowed) and his career WHIP is 0.954. Skenes has pitched in 413 innings and has accumulated 500 K's so far in his MLB career.

The Philadelphia Phillies have compiled a team on-base percentage of .302 as well as a team batting average of .236 on the year. They have been rung up on 741 instances (8th in baseball) and are sitting with 675 base knocks. Philadelphia has knocked in 113 home runs on the year as well as 364 runs batted in. The Phillies have a team slugging percentage of .402 and they average 4.41 runs per contest (17th in baseball). They have recorded 113 doubles, while taking a walk 246 times as well as putting up 375 runs.

The Philadelphia pitching staff have yielded 377 runs this season and come in with a team ERA of 4.15 (348 earned runs allowed). They have surrendered 98 dingers and they relinquish 4.49 runs per 9 innings (15th in MLB). The Phillies hold a team WHIP of 1.304 and are the owners of a FIP of 3.73 as a squad on the campaign. Their strikeout to walk ratio sits at 9.70 (811 strikeouts against 240 bases on balls). They are sitting at 24th in baseball as a pitching staff in total hits allowed with 745.

With 72 save situations, the Phillies have recorded 35 holds and 10 blown saves. Philadelphia has had relievers enter the contest in 36 save opportunities and they have earned 26 saves. Philadelphia bullpen pitchers have an inherited score rate of 35.2% out of 88 inherited base runners. Their bullpen pitchers have come in 78 times in high leverage situations and on 66 occasions with runners on base. They are ranked 8th in MLB holding a save rate of 72.2%, and they have sent 284 relief pitchers to the mound so far this season.

In 6,798 innings played, the Phillies have earned a efficiency on defense of 67.1% (29th in baseball). The Philadelphia Phillies have gotten 45 double plays and have a fielding rate of .985 (17th in MLB). The Phillies have recorded 715 assists, 44 errors and have a total of 2,266 putouts so far this year.

Wheeler (121-76 record in his career) has earned a 3.23 ERA while giving up 7.6 hits per 9 innings. His strikeout to walk ratio is 3.72 and he has faced 7,370 opposing hitters in his career. He has given up a total of 647 earned runs while holding a WHIP of 1.126 and having a FIP of 3.2. So far in his pro baseball career, Wheeler has surrendered 1,521 hits while totaling 1,894 strikeouts in 1,803 innings.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Pittsburgh (+132)

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