Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction, 5/21/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals

Date: Thursday, May 21, 2026

Location: Busch Stadium in St. Louis, MO

TV: Cardinals.TV

Odds/Point Spread: Pittsburgh (-196) St. Louis (+162)

The Pittsburgh Pirates (24-24) are on their way to Busch Stadium on Thursday where they will attempt to beat the St. Louis Cardinals (28-19). The line on this matchup has Pittsburgh at -196 and St. Louis is coming in at +162. The total has been set at 9. The pitchers who are expected to start are Braxton Ashcraft and Dustin May.

As a squad, the Pittsburgh Pirates are compiling 4.9 runs per contest, which is 7th in the league. They have a total of 235 runs and hold an OBP of .334. The Pirates have earned 69 two-baggers as a unit and have knocked 49 baseballs out of the stadium. They have amassed 224 runs batted in as well as 416 hits this season, and their batting average is .250. Pittsburgh is slugging .386 and have struck out 444 times, while drawing a walk on 191 occasions.

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They have accrued a K/BB ratio of 2.49 and the pitching staff holds a collective WHIP of 1.24. Pirates pitchers have given up 43 long balls in addition to 220 total runs (19th in baseball). Pittsburgh has allowed 369 hits (7.6 per 9 innings) and also 193 earned runs. The Pirates have a team ERA of 3.97 so far this year (12th in MLB), and their staff has rung up 428 batters. Their pitching staff has walked 172 opposing hitters and their FIP sits at 3.81 as a unit so far this year.

The Pirates relief pitchers have recorded a save percentage of 40.0% and have stepped onto the mound in 48 save situations. They have recorded 8 saves over the course of the season and have missed out on 12 out of their 20 chances to get a save. The relief pitchers have inherited 59 base runners so far this year with 35.6% of those runners ended up scoring. Pirates relief pitchers have stepped onto the hill with players on base 49 times in addition to having 54 appearances in high leverage situations. The Pirates have sent 164 relievers to the mound this year. The relief pitchers have a total of 27 holds for the season (15th in MLB).

The Pittsburgh Pirates have a total of 1,313 putouts so far this season, in addition to 406 assists and 25 errors. Their fielding percentage is currently at .986 which puts them in 20th in pro baseball, and have a total of 35 double plays. The Pirates have turned 70.9% of balls hit into play into outs in their 3,939 innings on the diamond, which has them ranked 9th in pro baseball.

Ashcraft has thrown 124 innings and is sitting with 127 punch outs during his career. Ashcraft (6-6 win-loss record in his career) is the owner of a FIP of 2.85 while he has faced 511 opposing batters in the major leagues. His earned run average is 2.90 (40 earned runs allowed) and his career WHIP is 1.167. He has allowed 107 base knocks (7.7 hits per 9 innings) and has 38 walks.

The St. Louis Cardinals have an OBP of .323 and a team batting average of .242 this year. They have struck out on 382 instances (24th in baseball) and have a total of 382 base hits. St. Louis has 55 long balls on the season as well as 210 RBIs. The Cardinals hold a team slugging percentage of .393 and they are scoring 4.62 runs per contest (9th in baseball). They have hit 70 two-baggers, while getting a free base 162 times as well as earning 217 runs.

The St. Louis pitching staff have conceded 211 runs so far this season while holding an ERA of 4.15 (196 earned runs surrendered). They have allowed 49 homers and they allow 4.47 runs per 9 innings (13th in the league). The Cardinals are sitting with a team WHIP of 1.374 and have a FIP of 4.42 as a staff on the season. Their K/BB ratio sits at 7.30 (343 strikeouts vs 177 walks). They sit at 22nd in baseball as a staff in total hits allowed with 407.

Sitting with 71 save situations, the Cardinals have accumulated 43 holds and also 9 blown saves. St. Louis has had bullpen pitchers step onto the hill in 26 save opportunities and they have tallied 17 saves. St. Louis relievers have an inherited score percentage of 35.2% out of their 71 inherited base runners. Their relievers have stepped onto the hill 63 times in high leverage situations and on 52 occasions with runners on base. They are currently ranked 12th in MLB holding a save percentage of 65.4%, and they have sent 170 relievers to the hill over the course of the season.

The St. Louis Cardinals have gotten 50 double plays and own a fielding percentage of .987 (16th in the majors). The Cardinals have recorded 457 assists, 23 errors and have accumulated 1,276 putouts on the season. In their 3,828 innings played, the Cardinals hold a defensive efficiency of 69.8% (19th in the majors).

So far in his pro baseball career, May has surrendered 330 hits while he has tallied 332 strikeouts in 372 innings pitched. He has conceded 165 ER's while earning a WHIP of 1.231 and a FIP of 3.9. His strikeout to walk ratio is 2.59 and he has faced 1,561 hitters so far in his MLB career. May (22-24 career record) holds a 3.99 ERA while surrendering 8.0 hits per 9 innings.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take St. Louis (+162)

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