Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals Prediction, 7/3/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals

Date: Friday, July 3, 2026

Location: Nationals Park in Washington, D.C.

TV: Nationals.TV

Odds/Point Spread: Pittsburgh (-160) Washington (+132)

The Pittsburgh Pirates (43-43) are hitting the road to Nationals Park on Friday where they will try to beat the Washington Nationals (44-43). The line on this matchup has Pittsburgh at -160 and Washington is coming in at +132. The total has been set at 8.5. The pitchers taking the mound are Mitch Keller and Foster Griffin.

Pittsburgh has a slugging percentage of .418 and have been rung up 809 times, while drawing a walk on 321 occasions. They have accumulated 421 runs batted in as well as 768 hits this season, and their average at the plate is at .258. The Pirates have recorded 136 two-baggers as a team and have knocked 108 baseballs out of the stadium. They have a total of 440 runs while holding a team on-base percentage of .336. As a unit, the Pittsburgh Pirates are compiling 5.1 runs per contest, which has them sitting at 4th in the league.

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The Pirates hold a team earned run average of 4.22 this year (17th in MLB), and the staff has rung up 789 hitters. Pirates pitchers have given up 85 home runs and 416 runs (22nd in the league). They have walked 311 opposing players and their FIP is 3.91 as a team this season. Pittsburgh has surrendered 693 base knocks (8.1 per 9 innings) in addition to 361 earned runs. They have earned a K/BB ratio of 2.54 and their pitching staff has recorded a WHIP of 1.31.

Pirates relief pitchers have entered the contest with players on base 82 times and also have had 80 appearances in high leverage situations. The relief pitchers have notched 42 holds so far this year (18th in MLB). The Pirates bullpen have recorded a save rate of 50.0% and have stepped onto the mound in 77 save situations. They have 17 saves on the season and have blown 17 of their 34 chances to get a save. The relief pitchers have inherited 115 runners on the season and 32.2% of those players crossing home plate. The Pirates have dispatched 274 relievers to the hill on the campaign.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have earned a total of 2,309 putouts on the campaign, in addition to 689 assists and 55 errors. Their fielding percentage is currently at .982 which is 27th in the majors, and have earned 64 double plays. The Pirates have transformed 69.0% of balls in play into outs out of 6,927 innings, ranking them 24th in baseball.

Keller (48-70 career record) is the owner of a FIP of 4.48 and he has faced 4,220 hitters in the majors. He has conceded 1,004 base knocks (9.3 hits per 9 innings) and has 332 walks. His ERA is 4.55 (491 ER's allowed) and his WHIP is 1.374. Keller has thrown 972 innings and has 910 strikeouts in his MLB career.

The Nationals have a team SLG% of .422 and they tally 5.29 runs per game (2nd in MLB). They have notched 150 doubles, while taking a walk 284 times as well as scoring 460 runs. Washington has compiled 114 HRs so far this season as well as 437 RBIs. They have struck out on 728 instances (12th in the league) and have totaled 735 hits. The Washington Nationals are sitting with a team OBP of .319 as well as a batting average of .246 on the season.

The Nationals have a WHIP of 1.380 with a FIP of 4.75 as a team on the year. They sit at 28th in the league as a staff in total hits relinquished with 773. The Washington pitching staff have given up 451 runs on the year while holding a team ERA of 4.66 (404 earned runs allowed). They currently have a strikeout to walk ratio of 7.90 (684 strikeouts vs 304 walks). They have surrendered 123 homers and they surrender 5.20 runs per 9 innings (27th in the league).

They are currently ranked 26th in baseball with a save percentage of 51.0%, and they have dispatched 277 relievers onto the diamond over the course of the season. Their relief pitchers have taken the field 97 times in high leverage situations in addition to 84 occasions with runners on. With 105 save situations, the Nationals have 49 holds in addition to 25 blown saves. Washington has had relief pitchers step onto the hill in 51 save chances and they have recorded 26 saves. Washington bullpen pitchers hold an inherited score percentage of 46.8% out of their 124 inherited base runners.

In 7,026 innings on the diamond, the Nationals have accumulated a efficiency on defense of 69.2% (23rd in baseball). The Washington Nationals have gotten 66 double plays and have a fielding rate of .978 (30th in baseball). The Nationals have accrued 782 assists, 69 errors and have earned 2,342 putouts over the course of the season.

In his MLB career, Griffin has conceded 84 base hits while he has accumulated 103 K's in 106 innings pitched. Griffin (9-2 career record) has a 3.22 earned run average and has conceded 7.1 hits per 9 innings. He has given up 38 earned runs while holding a WHIP of 1.074 and a FIP of 3.2. His K/BB ratio is 3.43 and he has faced 438 batters thus far in his career.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Washington (+132)

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